For the last decade, I've made predictions about how the year in SEO and web marketing would go. So far, my track record is pretty decent — the correct guesses outweigh the wrong ones. But today's the day of reckoning, to grade my performance from 2017 and, if the tally is high enough, share my list for the year ahead.
In keeping with tradition, my predictions will be graded on the following scale:
- Nailed It (+2) – When a prediction is right on the money and the primary criteria are fulfilled
- Partially Accurate (+1) – Predictions that are in the ballpark, but are somewhat different than reality
- Not Completely Wrong (-1) – Those that got near the truth, but are more "incorrect" than "correct"
- Way Off (-2) – Guesses which didn't come close
Breakeven or better means I make new predictions for the year ahead, and under that total means my predicting days are over. Let's see how this shakes out... I'm not nervous... You're nervous! This sweat on my brow... It's because... because it was raining outside. It's Seattle! Yeesh.
Grading Rand's 2017 Predictions
#1: Voice search will be more than 25% of all US Google searches within 12 months. Despite this, desktop volume will stay nearly flat and mobile (non-voice) will continue to grow.
+1 - We have data for desktop and mobile search volume via Jumpshot, showing that the former did indeed stay relatively flat and the other kept growing.
But, unfortunately, we don't know the percent of searches that are done with voice rather than keyboards or screens. My guess is 25% of all searches is too high, but until Google decides to share an updated number, all we have is the old 2016 stat that 20% of mobile searches happened via voice input.
#2: Google will remain the top referrer of website traffic by 5X+. Neither Facebook, nor any other source, will make a dent.
+2 - Nailed it! Although, to be fair, there's no serious challenger. The social networks and e-commerce leaders of the web want people to stay on their site, not leave and go elsewhere. No surprise Google's the only big traffic referrer left.
#3: The Marketing Technology space will not have much consolidation (fewer exits and acquisitions, by percentage, than 2015 or 2016), but there will be at least one major exit or IPO among the major SEO software providers.
+2 - As best I can tell from Index.co's thorough database (which, BTW, deserves more attention than Crunchbase, whose data I've found to be of far lower quality), Martech as a whole had nearly half the number of acquisitions in 2017 (22) versus 2016 (39). 2017 did, however, see the Yext IPO, so I'm taking full credit on this one.
#4: Google will offer paid search ads in featured snippets, knowledge graph, and/or carousels.
0 - Turns out, Google had actually done a little of this prior to 2017, which I think invalidates the prediction. Thus I'm giving myself no credit either way, though Google did expand their testing and ad types in this direction last year.
#5: Amazon search will have 4% or more of Google's web search volume by end of year.
-2 - Way off, Rand. From the Jumpshot data, it looks like Amazon's not even at 1% of Google's search volume yet. I was either way too early on this one, or Amazon searches may never compete, volume-wise, with how Google's users employ their search system.
#6: Twitter will remain independent, and remain the most valuable and popular network for publishers and influencers.
+2 - I'm actually shocked that I made this prediction given the upheaval Twitter has faced in the last few years. Still, it's good to see a real competitor (despite their much smaller size) to Facebook stay independent.
#7: The top 10 mobile apps will remain nearly static for the year ahead, with, at most, one new entrant and 4 or fewer position changes.
+1 - I was slighly aggressive on wording this prediction, though the reality is pretty accurate. The dominance of a few companies in the mobile app world remains unchallenged. Here's 2016's top apps, and here's 2017's. The only real change was Apple Music and Amazon falling a couple spots and Pandora and Snapchat sneaking into the latter half of the list.
#8: 2017 will be the year Google admits publicly they use engagement data as an input to their ranking systems, not just for training/learning
-2 - I should have realized Google will continue to use engagement data for rankings, but they're not gonna talk about it. They have nothing to gain from being open, and a reasonable degree of risk if they invite spammers and manipulators to mimic searchers and click for rankings (a practice that, sadly, has popped up in the gray hat SEO world, and does sometimes, unfortunately, work).
Final Score: +4 — not too shabby, so let's continue this tradition and see what 2018 holds. I'm going to be a little more cavalier with this year's predictions, just to keep things exciting :-)
Rand's 9 Predictions for 2018
#1: The total number of organic clicks Google refers will drop by ~5% by the end of the year
In 2017, we saw the start of a concerning trend — fewer clicks being generated by Google search on desktop and mobile. I don't think that was a blip. In my estimation, Google's actions around featured snippets, knowledge panels, and better instant answers in the SERPs overall, combined with more aggressive ads and slowing search growth (at least in the United States), will lead to there being slightly less SEO opportunity in 2018 than what we had in 2017.
I don't think this trend will accelerate much long term (i.e. it's certainly not the end for SEO, just a time of greater competition for slightly fewer click opportunities).
#2: Twitter and LinkedIn will both take active steps to reduce the amount of traffic they refer out to other sites
Facebook, Instagram, and Snapchat have all had success algorithmically or structurally limiting clicks off their platforms and growing as a result. I think in 2018, Twitter and LinkedIn are gonna take their own steps to limit content with links from doing as well, to limit the visibility of external links in their platform, and to better reward content that keeps people on their sites.
#3: One or more major SEO software providers will shutter as a result of increased pressure from Google and heavy competition
Google Search Console is, slowly but surely, getting better. Google's getting a lot more aggressive about making rank tracking more difficult (some rank tracking folks I'm friendly with told me that Q4 2017 was particularly gut-punching), and the SEO software field is way, way more densely packed with competitors than ever before. I estimate at least ten SEO software firms are over $10 million US in annual revenue (Deepcrawl, SEMRush, Majestic, Ahrefs, Conductor, Brightedge, SISTRIX, GinzaMetrics, SEOClarity, and Moz), and I'm probably underestimating at least 4 or 5 others (in local SEO, Yext is obviously huge, and 3–4 of their competitors are also above $10mm).
I predict this combination of factors will mean that 2018 sees one or more casualties (possibly through a less-than-rewarding acquisition rather than straight-out bankruptcy) in the SEO software space.
#4: Alexa will start to take market share away from Google, especially via devices with screens like the Echo Show
Voice search devices are useful, but somewhat limited by virtue of missing a screen. The Echo Show was the first stab at solving this, and I think in 2018 we're going to see more and better devices as well as vastly better functionality. Even just the "Alexa, show me a photo of Rodney Dangerfield from 1965." (see, Rand, I told you he used to be handsome!) will take away a lot of the more simplistic searches that today happen on Google and Google Images (the latter of which is a silent giant in the US search world).
#5: One of the non-Google tech giants will start on a more serious competitor to YouTube
Amazon's feud with Google and the resulting loss of YouTube on certain devices isn't going unnoticed in major tech company discussions. I think in 2018, that turns into a full-blown decision to invest in a competitor to the hosted video platform. There's too much money, time, attention, and opportunity for some of the big players not to at least dip a toe in the water.
Side note: If I were an investor, I'd be pouring meetings and dollars into startups that might become this. I think acquisitions are a key way for a Facebook, an Amazon, or a Microsoft to reduce their risk here.
#6: Facebook Audience Network (that lets publishers run FB ads on their own sites) will get the investment it needs and become a serious website adtech player
Facebook ads on the web should be as big or bigger than anything Google does in this realm, mostly because the web functions more like Facebook than it does like search results pages, and FB's got the data to make those ads high quality and relevant. Unfortunately, they've underinvested in Audience Network the last couple years, but I think with Facebook usage in developed countries leveling out and the company seeking ways to grow their ad reach and effectiveness, it's time.
#7: Mobile apps will fade as the default for how brands, organizations, and startups of all sizes invest in the mobile web; PWAs and mobile-first websites will largely take their place
I'm calling it. Mobile apps, for 95% of companies and organizations who want to do well on the web, are the wrong decision. Not only that, most everyone now realizes and agrees on it. PWAs (and straightforward mobile websites) are there to pick up the slack. That's not to say the app stores won't continue to generate downloads or make money — they will. But those installs and dollars will flow to a very few number of apps and app developers at the very top of the charts, while the long tail of apps (which never really took off), fades into obscurity.
Side note: games are probably an exception (though even there, Nintendo Switch proved in 2017 that mobile isn't the only or best platform for games).
#8: Wordpress will continue its dominance over all other CMS', growing its use from ~25% to 35%+ of the top few million sites on the web
While it depends what you consider "the web" to be, there's no doubt Wordpress has dominated every other CMS in the market among the most popular few million sites on it. I think 2018 will be a year when Wordpress extends their lead, mostly because they're getting more aggressive about investments in growth and marketing, and secondarily because no one is stepping up to be a suitable (free) alternative.
35%+ might sound like a bold step, but I'm seeing more and more folks moving off of other platforms for a host of reasons, and migrating to Wordpress for its flexibility, its cost structure, its extensibility, and its strong ecosystem of plugins, hosting providers, security options, and developers.
#9: The United States will start to feel the pain of net neutrality's end with worse Internet connectivity, more limitations, and a less free-and-open web
Tragically, we lost the battle to maintain Title II protections on net neutrality here in the US, and the news is a steady drumbeat of awfulness around this topic. Just recently, Trump's FCC announced that they'd be treating far slower connections as "broadband," thus lessening requirements for what's considered "penetration" and "access," all the way down to mobile connection speeds.
It's hard to notice what this means right now, but by the end of 2018, I predict we'll be feeling the pain through even slower average speeds, restrictions on web usage (like what we saw before Title II protections with Verizon and T-Mobile blocking services and favoring sites). In fact, my guess is that some enterprising ISP is gonna try to block cryptocurrency mining, trading, or usage as an early step.
Over time, I suspect this will lead to a tiered Internet access world here in the US, where the top 10% of American earners (and those in a few cities and states that implement their own net neutrality laws) have vastly better and free-er access (probably with more competitive pricing, too).
Now it's time for your feedback! I want to know:
- Which of these predictions do you find most likely?
- Which do you find most outlandish?
- What obvious predictions do you think I've shamefully missed? ;-)
2017: #5: Amazon search will have 4% or more of Google's web search volume by end of year
2018: #4: Alexa will start to take market share away from Google, especially via devices with screens like the Echo Show
Stepping on the same rake, I see :D
I wonder how Amazon compares to Google in terms of commercial queries, and how the number would change if you counted searches from Google that go like "something something + amazon" in Amazon's favor.
interesting point @Igor Gorbenko about the commericial queries comparison between Amazon and Google!
I’d add a 10th preview:
- in 2016 the shiny new “SEO” topic was Machine Learning;
- in 2017 it was Voice Search
- in 2018 SEO industry will progressively pushed talking and discussing at least 2 new shiny topics:
1) Google Assistant as a search environment: the fact that Google very recently released and published a long list of Actions that can be implemented and associated to content published in the web may indicate a potential “attention” trend in that direction
2) AR/VR (more AR, though) and visual search as new way of searching information. In the Google “The Keyword” blog the category with more posts published was, in fact, the AR/VR one, which is clearly a sign of where Google is investing efforts and money.
Secondly, Google Lens may prove to be a huge opportunity for Search (think at local search, but not only... product comparisons when in store doing “showrooming”?
Interesting point, Gianluca.
Woah great!
I've just remembered that "8 Predictions for SEO in 2017" was the first Moz blog post that I have read exactly one year before today!
So, happy 1 year old Moz Fan birthday to me!
Thanks Rand! I've learned a lot since then!
#9: The United States will start to feel the pain of net neutrality's end
Yep. Just like is done with television. ISPs will start inserting ads between the websites that you visit and maybe even between the pages that you visit. Get ready for them to start getting rich by stuffing ads in your face. They might even have their own browsers that you get when you subscribe to their service and they will be loaded with ads across the top and ads across the bottom and pop-ups that whack you in the face. Ajit Pai will keep smirking.
Yeah! With Net Neutrality gone there will surely be complications ahead in 2018.
2018: #5: One of the non-Google tech giants will start on a more serious competitor to YouTube
This is a really daring prediction and I simply hope that you are right. When we look at gaming specifically, Twitch.Tv is doing great and surely taking most of the live-streaming business. Another front where Amazon and Google are clashing!
Love the honest analysis of your 2017 predictions Rand, as well as agree with most of your 2018 predictions (even though I hope the net neutrality nightmares don't come to fruition). It will be interesting to see what happens with voice search moving forward as well as the SEO software companies you mentioned. Great article sir, appreciate your past analysis and future forecasting!
Spot on! Everyone belts out trends and prediction posts for the year ahead, but how many have the probity to not only reprint them twelve months later, but review themselves as well? Nice work!
Wordpress domininance as a CMS remains unchallenged, and it will grow for sure in the year 2018. The expected %age growth figures are really fascinating. If that happens, we will see the trend in the mobile app, mobile website and website development industry lean towards WP. The only problem is that WP market is flooded with low quality developers and designers. Hacking the plugins and integrity of the platform leaves it much vulnerable to future upgrades and hackers alike.
I would prefer WP over any CMS platform anyday . The reason is simple, it's backed by a great community and solutions are available online for any problem. Yes, I agree that there aren't many good developers and designers available but a great community fills that gap.
Hi Rand,
Thanks for such and informative post. I truly believe that Voice Search will revolutionaries the search results in the coming future, even I am a big fan of Google Now and now Google Assistant. The increase in Voice Searcher will need hard work by SEO experts.
Thanks for sharing one more awesome post.
Regards!
To me #9 feels outlandish, but just because the net neutrality itself is outlandish. As a EU citizen I'm really sad to see where we arrived and I really hope that there's a step back regarding that, sooner than later.
Anyway, I loved the honest recap and the predictions, that was an interesting read. Looking forward to the 2018 recap!
#7: Mobile apps will fade as the default for how brands,
organizations, and startups of all sizes invest in the mobile web; PWAs
and mobile-first websites will largely take their place
I think that this one is VERY accurate and it has ALREADY HAPPENED IN INDIA
Myntra , one of India's top 10 marketplaces ditched it's app only approach after just one year (1 May 2015 to 31 May 2016) and restarted it's website on 1 June 2016.
On #2, I am definitely seeing this happen on LinkedIn. I'm thinking through how we need to change our strategies for creating and sharing content in-site, so I'll be watching this one closely.
Word. It is time to start being creative about this because the old way of linking to the site will be no effective anymore
Thanks sharing for this beautiful article.
#8 Is definitely true for us - we had been dividing a lot of the site builds that we did between Joomla and Wordpress, but Wordpress is a lot more user friendly.
#9 Is super-worrying. My ISP already got bought out by someone and the service slowed down, seems to have an undisclosed limit, and appears throttled at certain points.
Genuinely praying over here that a serious competitor to YouTube arises.
I think Facebook Workspace is going to get huge in the next 1-2 years.
as not ... Amazon keeps growing. As in the offline world, the big ones are eating all the pie and the Internet in a few years will be 4.
The most likely: #5: One of the non-Google tech giants will start on a more serious competitor to YouTube
The most outlandish: #2: Twitter and LinkedIn will both take active steps to reduce the amount of traffic they refer out to other sites
Shamefully missed: Definitely the voice search will be a very important aspect for the SEO this 2018.
SEO 2018
#1 Agree. I think google is trying to work out how to incrementally stop referring traffic to others, and hold on to as much as they can, when they can make money from doing that.
#2 Agree. More $ for them, less for others. Also, I see twitter driving more people away altogether, as they try to create an echo chamber. I see special interest groups using twitter's bias as a weapon to destroy their political enemies, which will drive people away and reduce their traffic.
#3 Every second person in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh is now selling their expert SEO link-building services, and has suddenly gained a Western name, but still can't spell or construct a sentence. I don't see any of the software providers closing, more likely receiving lower revenue. Maybe there will be a merger or two.
#4 I've never seen Alexa do anything much that was really useful, so I don't see this at all.
#11
The big one I think you're missing is the massive effect of driverless cars at both ends of the search process, likely in 2018.
Handsfree driving creates more search opportunity in search volume (though the number of cars initially will be low), additional voice queries (preferred for the distracted 'passenger'), and a new screen or screens for presentation... everything from in-dash screen to inside of windows with AR overlays, the impact of driverless cars to search - especially in commuter driven metros - should not be underestimated.
2018 may not be the year of great availability or adoption, but it will definitely be the year of necessary preparation for SEO folk.
As location-awareness and behavior-pattern-awareness become part of an SEO toolbox of 'context' of user intent, savvy SEO tool providers, Google included, will find opportunity in 'nano-moments' intersections of location, intent, context and prior behavior (or predicted behavior).
And for those of you who like the number 11
https://youtu.be/sAz_UvnUeuU enjoy :-)
Excited to see more positive changes in 2018 with Google Search Console! Such a useful tool. Great predictions as always Rand, I especially agree with Wordpress' CMS growth and Alexa taking some market share aware from Google (it will be interesting to see how much).
#5: One of the non-Google tech giants will start on a more serious competitor to YouTube
This may look unrealistic right now but i really believe this is going to happen in the future. maybe near future. :\
#7: Mobile apps will fade as the default for how brands, organizations, and startups of all sizes invest in the mobile web; PWAs and mobile-first websites will largely take their place
uhhhh... I don't know about this one but this seems a bit far-fetched. :|
Maybe, maybe not. Every brand and website is getting an app nowadays. I get tired of having so many apps on my phone and I'd rather have an optimized and fast website to navigate on. What about you?
I intentionally refrain from installing apps. I only have one screen's worth on my phone. Except for a few banking/music apps, there's simply no need to install what is usually just a wrapper for a company's website!
Exactly! And If you're using an older phone, it's storage is filled up within weeks. It's super frustrating!
We may very well have sets of widgets that are not full apps that allows user to open an interface that is directed to a website, but is not a full browser. This half approach is already being tested at Google. This will allow users to access the full web and all its features, as well as lowering demand for storage and processing power. Therefore, AMP, mobile-first website, and many other forms of merging of these platforms will most likely happen. However, as of #5, If Youtube and Twitch don't step up their game, they may face serious competition from new live streaming platforms such as Facebook.
Rand "New Paul the Octopus" concerning to SEO Industry.
I too have one prediction, Moz will create more SEO tools which can help solve SEO related issue and make SEO's life easier,
Sorry one more MOZ will also increase revenues and market share.
Best of Luck Mozers. ( Cyrus I'd request you too please share your awesome SEO tips regularly in 2018)
Thanks
Sachin Bisaani ( I'm not a astrologer ) :)
Hi Rand
How are you doing?
1 – Your last WBF of 2017 was very encouraging, and this post brought me mixed feelings of feeling motivated and scared too as an SEO in the light of the first prediction. I agree with this prediction, especially after the practice of longer snippets.
2 – None of us wants to leave out site until the link to the external is of our own, so Twitter and LinkedIn would wish the same too. So Agreed to this point.
3 – Mixed feelings about this one.
4 – I have noticed kids using Google’s Voice search most like ‘play frozen game’. I have no stats, but I am sure kids generate a huge voice search volume today. With The Echo Show, this chunk is going to get bigger.
5 – With the drastic increase in Jeff Bezos’ assets and rivalry against Google, it is most likely to happen either this year or the next.
6 – Agreed.
7 – As Joseph mentioned the case of Myntra, and with mobile-first indexing, agreed.
8 – Agreed (for many years to come).
9 – I wish this does not happen.
Your RANDomized follower!
Joseph Dyson
I personally agree with most of your predictions Rand, and especially with #1, #3, and #8.
I don't entirely agree with these two:
#2: Twitter and LinkedIn will both take active steps to reduce the amount of traffic they refer out to other sites
Yes for Linkedin but not for Twitter. Twitter's mission is to allow everyone to share information, and I don't think they'll take that away. The way I see it, taking steps to limit content with links will limit the capability to share.
#7: Mobile apps will fade
I’ll put aside the fact that I'm a huge fan of apps, and that I always prefer them over any other Mobile solution. And I just think that while it is happening, and the trend is already here, it will take much longer than just this year for Mobile apps to fade.
The adoption of PWA, just like the adoption of AMP is still quite slow. In fact it was also a slow adoption with App Indexing 2-3 years ago. So I believe it's happening, but I don't think we'll see a significant change in that area in the next 12 months. Just not yet.
great list!
#5: One of the non-Google tech giants will start on a more serious competitor to YouTube
Definitely!
Amazon has already trademarked ‘AmazonTube’, partially in response to Google blocking YouTube videos on the Echo Show, but I suspect also because of the increase in allowing videos in their paid advertising side, as well as on sellers listing pages.
Maybe #4, but until there’s an easier way to move through the screens without touching the device, or Alexa is betting at reading off the list of things she found, I think the change will be slow. (I have an Echo show
I will correct you little bit on #8.
WordPress currently take 60% of all CMS sites: here
But when you convert to all sites: here WP take 29.3%. Because "51.2% of the websites use none of the content management systems that we monitor."
I think that personally WP won't going beyond 33%. Because there are lot of complex issues caused from themes or plugins. In WordCamp Sofia 2017 Noel Tock has presentation with video here just jump on 18:28 and you will see it. Noel thinks that won't go beyond 35%.
WHY?
Well - it's complex answer but we has too many plugins and themes that make conflicts each other. There are also abandoned themes/plugins too. And there are complex issues with some features that make WP fully functional SaaS.
Also there is rise of "static CMS systems" that make bulletproof sites that can be host everywhere - from Amazon S3/Azure/Google Cloud Files to regular shared hostings.
Of course we can be wrong too.
Really good feedback and counterpoints Peter. Thank you! Wouldn't surprise me if I'm wrong, my sense is just that the web is becoming more and more "winner take all" and in website world, that's Wordpress (at least for now). I'd love to see a real challenger though.
Unfortunately you're true and Abba sing this many years ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92cwKCU8Z5c
I remember 15 years ago there was tons of CMSes. Even mine old blog is built on CMS called s9y - Serenpidity. And frustration can hit you fast:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serendipity_(software)
this page says that last version is 2.0.4
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serendipity_(Software)
this says - 2.1.1
Actual version is of course 2.1.1; I'm using 1.7.8 because upgrade hell and i'm tired.
Same issues are with Joomla - They started as Mambo fork and everything was very good until version 1.5. They release version 2.0 but... without upgrade path from 1.5. So users start to waiting for that magic tool and he didn't comes, meanwhile version 2.5 was released, 3.0... and current is 3.8. They learn lesson that users want one-click-upgrade but marketshare is going low.
Drupal - well this is another kind of story. They support few versions at once - 5, 6, 7 and 8. Of course migration between them is possible for experts.
I can wrote first hand experience with other CMSes like OracleCMS, but this comment can become larger than original post.
So users, devs and designers getting tired from that. And WP guys was very clever so they just collect users from other CMSes. Today for most of users site is equal of WordPress. Now - WP is supported from Hosting companies from shared hosting to special WP hosting like Kinsta, ManageWP, Pantheon. WP is supported from designers - there are lot of resources, start themes as _s where everyone can learn, support of child themes. WP is supported from many devs if they can wrote in PHP - in fact API is documented, lot of code and examples and learning curve is sleek. Funny - you can wrote simply plugin for 5 mins even if you doesn't have previous experience. Of course was small "hack", but works well still for me. But there are changes - WP5 will be released soon within few months with new editor Gutenberg and other changes.
But times has changed. Static CMSes are rising. There is also new kind of hosting called "serverless" hosting:
Amazon S3
Google Cloud Storage
other cloud providers also has similar services. (TBH i wish to see this year article about that here).
We're living in interesting times and the best is yet to come!
PS: I love WP, don't misunderstood me. But for some tasks WP is overkill.
I use Wordpress a lot, but I don't love it. The pro is that world wide there are a lot of people using WP and this make a great community which loves to help each other. I just keep the plugins to a very minimum and use 1 or 2 themes to work with. I choose these paid themes over free themes because I get free updates. The problems I had with conflicting plugins and outdated plugins conflicting with wordpress core were too many. I just keep it as simple as possible. I used to hire some people from Fiverr to perform some simple programming, but you are right. I agree with you there are too many shit devs around. I do my own php programming now.....Takes more time, but a least I know how to make it work.
Also I use a paid firewall because there a lot attacks on wordpress website as well. It saves me a lot time and headache.
I think WP will keep growing for 2018 and will get better and safer.....
Uses of website are reducing day by day and peoples are using app on their mobile for approx all their work. 2018 prediction looks going to be true or may be not.
Hi Rand, I've been religiously following your blog for quite some time now and it has changed the way I approached SEO.
I agree that Twitter and LinkedIn and even Facebook for that matter will take active steps to reduce the amount of traffic they refer out to other sites. The reason being as you said is that they want users to spend quality time on their platforms.
Mayank
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Thanks for this list, Rand, extremely well-thought and helpful. Was especially intrigued by your prediction on Alexa and Amazon search. I do agree that Alexa might take at least some of Google’s market share very soon, and you’re just being too early back in 2017. The question is, is implementing SEO on Amazon searches already a good idea? I also think mobile games are not the exception on your prediction of the decline on apps (which I agree), people are starting to lose interest in mobile games too, in my opinion.
Excelent contribution.
So interesting Rand!! We will see how accurate, they are ;-)
This is my comments about:
#1: The total number of organic clicks Google refers will drop by ~5% by the end of the year: This one sound logical, but quite scaring for the business based traffic provided by SERP results
#5: One of the non-Google tech giants will start on a more serious competitor to YouTube: I have curiosity about which company is going to try to fightagainst YouTube for the videos.
#8: Wordpress will continue its dominance over all other CMS', growing its use from ~25% to 35%+ of the top few million sites on the web
35%+ is a bold prediction! I'm very interested to see what happens here. I would agree WordPress remains dominant, and will continue to grow.
My money is on Amazon for launching the next user led video channel. They already have a user base with Twitch and can either build out from that or take develop something entirely new (It will probably the latter).
Hi Rand.
I'm not sure which category this question should go in, so hopefully you can answer.
When starting a new SEO campaign but the client still uses their existing designer/developer, what's the best way to approach them and ask to have onpage issues that we have noticed fixed? As you can see this raises a few thoughts for them, especially as most developed the site:
What's wrong with my design? Who are these people to tell me it's wrong? Why didn't my client ask me to do this? Why should i? Etc, etc etc........
How do you keep a professional relationship with the clients best interests in mind without slowing down the actions and increasing effort?
I suppose this question came into more light after we started offering a free 1 month SEO trial (yes it really is free with no catch or contract, and yes we are suckers for punishment).
I'd like to think that the goal for all 3 parties concerned is the best result for the paying client, but sometimes this sadly doesn't seem the case.
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Good job, Rand, with your predictions for 2017 and their fulfillment :)
RE: predictions for 2018, #7: Mobile apps will fade - absolutely true! And I think that pwa's will become increasily easy to do, and most websites - when created - will always be "mobile first" in the sense that the design starts from the mobile framework and then moving to desktop. We see the trend now with these blown-up websites on a large screen while looking pretty neat on the mobile phones, because many companies just don't bother optimizing their sites for desktop.
Have you guys seen the major hosting companies promote their Wordpress services? It's a battle royale. But it's also a message that inexpensive wordpress support is finally a possibility.
Good article! I saw a small drop off in organic levels as an overall percentage of traffic levels to my sites across the board. I put this down to Google's approach to pushing Google shopping and text ads in prime positions.
To pick up on point#4: Alexa will start to take market share away from Google, especially via devices with screens like the Echo Show.
Its always been a little disconcerting for me that Google has such a large, self perpetuating market share of search traffic so anything that actually helps funnel users to the right URL without going via Google has to be good. What do you think?
You can also give 1 point to the 4th prediction in 2017.
Google offers paid search ads in Google local snippets. More importantly for travel sites, hotels and specific and related industries alone. So you can give a partial score for this prediction.
I vote for net neutrality prediction is going to 100%. I also predict Video marketing, webinar promotions are going face more complications due to slow internet in USA. The YouTube share will be down at-least by 5% due to this.
For me, social referral/engagement is much more important this year 2018. This could be facebook, twitter, pinterest, reddit, linkedin.. people are much more on social, and it will be till the future.. people are rapidly increasing in socials.. the site that you can easily engage with people is in quora, you can ask , you can answer , comment and engage user. Also here in Moz, you can engage people.. I already tried social referral and engagement traffic.. it does gave me a good spot on google rankings.
I agree with many of the predictions, but I hesitate on net neutrality, One can be a pessimist or optimist on the subject. I did some reading on both sides to further understand the issue, and there is plenty of "unfuound fear" articles out there that people might read to increase their knowledge. Personally, I have only heard one side presented in news media---and online, which for the most part, is one sided political talking points. Thanks for your projections, its something to think about going forward.
Regarding to point #6: Facebook Audience Network, I'm using this on one of my site with a 80k+ fans fanpage. This is likely to Google adwords but I still don't understand that how it has the involve in SEO?
After reading your article number 7 on your list of 2018 predictions seems to be the mostly likely to happen; people no longer want to go through the hassle of downloading apps that they'll only use once, especially if they can just use the mobile website. Great article can't wait to see what you're right about as the year progresses.
For people like you is why I keep reading Moz's Blog. Your predictions are really interesting and it will help me develop and strategy for my webpage.
Thank you very much for sharing your expertise with all of us.
Thank you very much for your article, I am always interested in knowing the new tendencies on seo positioning and discovering how the factors evolve, I have kept the article in favorites to read several times ;)
Google will offer paid search ads in featured snippets, knowledge graph, and/or carousels.
Actually, I have seen paid ads in google image search for the first time just yesterday.
They are solid great predictions! The one that I am not really sure about is Twitter focus in the internal links. Being able to share and express everything is what makes Twitter different than other social media. People are used to share a lot of content in this platform. So if they change that a lot of users could start not using Twitter that much anymore.
Mario, I feel that Twitter is already doing this by focusing more on the "Twitter Moments" where they include snippets of stories and tweets that make you feel like you've read the entire story without needing to click to an external link.
Yes you are right, but I think thats it is because all the other platforms are using that since Snapchat... I am not pretty sure that they want to focus more on that.
Hi Rand,
I think Google Assistant will also play a big role for SEO in 2018.
Can you please clear my doubt is me right or not?
How is it going to play the role in SEO
#1: The total number of organic clicks Google refers will drop by ~5% by the end of the year
Agreed
#2: Twitter and LinkedIn will both take active steps to reduce the amount of traffic they refer out to other sites
Linkedin Yes, Twitter NO
#3: One or more major SEO software providers will shutter as a result of increased pressure from Google and heavy competition
Will get acquired by the compeetition
#4: Alexa will start to take market share away from Google, especially via devices with screens like the Echo Show
In the US perhaps
#5: One of the non-Google tech giants will start on a more serious competitor to YouTube
serious competitor, not likely.
#6: Facebook Audience Network (that lets publishers run FB ads on their own sites) will get the investment it needs and become a serious website adtech player
Agreed
#7: Mobile apps will fade as the default for how brands, organizations, and startups of all sizes invest in the mobile web; PWAs and mobile-first websites will largely take their place
Agreed
#8: Wordpress will continue its dominance over all other CMS', growing its use from ~25% to 35%+ of the top few million sites on the web
It won't be that big of a jump. I think the pace at wich WordPress is growing will slow down.
#9: The United States will start to feel the pain of net neutrality's end with worse Internet connectivity, more limitations, and a less free-and-open web
:(
#2: Twitter and LinkedIn will both take active steps to reduce the amount of traffic they refer out to other sites
I hope not. Twitter is better than RSS for me to keep up on industry news. If they turn it into simply a place to read people's rants and just be mean to each other, it will quickly become worthless to everyone except the very vain. Your #6 from last year will not hold its place if your #2 from this year is correct (I'm sad to say).
I think #5 is going to be something that Amazon really moves on - you can already self publish videos and music through Createspace, so the infrastructure is there, they really just need to tweak the interface and give it more of a front-end.
#8 Is definitely true for us - we had been dividing a lot of the site builds that we did between Joomla and Wordpress, but Wordpress is a lot more user friendly.
#9 Is super-worrying. My ISP already got bought out by someone and the service slowed down, seems to have an undisclosed limit, and appears throttled at certain points.
Hi Rand,
Interesting predictions especially on Youtube and the Seo software providers.
Just one note, it should be WordPress with a capitalized P and not Wordpress.
"From the Jumpshot data, it looks like Amazon's not even at 1% of Google's search volume yet."
can you give more on this? I cant believe it, I would think they are already in the xx% when two years ago some study said that 50% of commerce searches are done on Amazon
Hi Rand!
2018 will be more incline towards mobile technology & AI, more user centric !
Your prediction are really awesome, current time is unpredictable anything may happen, but there are things we can guess though. I really enjoy reading your blogs.
"They have nothing to gain from being open..."
Like everyone else. Why should anyone talk openly 'bout his business secrets? I mean: real secrets, not the stuff you can find/think of easily... Can't find any MOZ post how they/your toolset/algos work EXACTLY either. ;)
on #1 "will lead to there being slightly less SEO opportunity in 2018 than what we had in 2017."
Strongly disagree. You're only right, if you think of SEO as some technical SERP-push. But that isn't SEO - at least not IMHO, when you look at the whole picture of "optimization of a website". SEO is even more required than before, because everything that lowers UX will f*ck up your rankings (even in a personalized search).
on #3 shutdowns
Sure, because of #1 and #2: Not only Facebook & friends try to limit external traffic, also Google shuts out more signals concerning it's search. Tools already give you only 40 % of the picture - so why pay for something, that will give you even less in the future? The only market left is IMHO starting SEOs, that need some advice/input (from software) what they can do better.
on #4 Alexa vs. Google
I think you underestimate Google and how important voice search, combined with what's in development in the x.labs, is to Google. I think, AR/VS combined will be THE market in 5 - 6 years. And those not present in VS atm will be the next Yahoo!
on #5 People always settle for the winner.
That's why other approaches will fail. Exception: You can offer a better UX and more quality than Youtube. Because atm it feels like SEO-cancered search 'round 2005: loads of baitstuffed crap/stolen content and hard to find quality content.
on #7 PWA vs. Apps
Oh yeah!
Interesting predictions Rand. I think you're probably right about Wordpress marketshare, there's nothing I've seen with the same level of flexibility for the price point.
One thing you might be overlooking with Amazon is conversion rate vs Google. While Google still might get the lions share of search volume, Amazon probably gets the lions share of search volume that converts into a sale on their platform. In other words Amazon's search volume is more valuable.
I am not sure how to really capitalize on Amazon at the moment other than writing books. I wrote one on SEO and do get a small monthly check from it.
The buzz around Alexa this year seemed much bigger than the buzz around Siri. The problem Alexa has is many people find it creepy and turn it off after using it a while.
From my perspective SEO folks are going to have a harder time ranking this year than last based on all the changes that are going on. I do find though that Content is still king and putting a lot of articles out that hit your target market's sweet spot is the way to go.
Ow! Some of them are matched with my predictions. Thanks for the seo thoughts that you are sharing dude. Specially for the YouTube predictions.
Thanks again!
Google Now, Google Assistance, Barnacle SEO & Local SEO will play some major roles in SEO in 2018. Let's see whats in store for us in this year.
Year 3018:
Wordpress still continue its dominance over all other CMS.
Anyway, excited to see your predictions.
haha LOL but true :)
Hi Rand, I saw a case where a radio´s website (an 'old' and traditional brasilian radio) started to use Flipboard in Dezember'17 to grow sessions and Pageviews. And I am quite astonished that this refferrer brought 12x sessions than organic traffic. And that website does not have serious SEO or tracking problems.
Do you have heard or know some cases of this mobile App?
re 2017 :
#6: Twitter will remain independent, and remain the most valuable and popular network
Independent, except politically motivated (like google and youtube), shadow banning or closing accounts on people whose politics they don't like. Like a lot of other companies, they seem keen to destroy part of their established base.
#8: 2017 will be the year Google admits publicly
I thought you were being overly optimistic, unless you had inside information. When has google ever told us the truth?
re 2018:
#1 Agree. I think google is trying to work out how to incrementally stop referring traffic to others, and hold on to as much as they can, when they can make money from doing that.
#2 Agree. More $ for them, less for others. Also, I see twitter driving more people away altogether, as they try to create an echo chamber. I see special interest groups using twitter's bias as a weapon to destroy their political enemies, which will drive people away and reduce their traffic.
#3 [Edited by moderator] I don't see any of the software providers closing, more likely receiving lower revenue. Maybe there will be a merger or two.
#4 I've never seen Alexa do anything much that was really useful, so I don't see this at all.
#5 Agree. Youtube appears determined to demonetize and kick out anyone who trips over a political trip wire they have set, and they are allowing special interest groups that conform with their political leanings to get their opponents demonetized, banned, or kicked out.
Also, the way they now serve up content is horrible. Their idea of what I want to watch is terrible. As soon as I watch something, they think I only want to see that from now on, until I brute-force go and find what I really want. Even then, they still don't show me what I really want. It feels as through they are deliberately trying to destroy their own platform.
#6 No opinion on Facebook ads
#7 Agree. Mobile apps suck.
#8 Yes, I finally switched my main site to Wordpress 12 months ago and it has been great. (there was no such thing as wordpress when I built my big site, and it took me almost a year to change over. I see Wordpress continuing to grow, but government departments seem to love Drupal.
#9 You could be right, but they will have to be careful they don't destroy their own business while limiting access. People are starting to get used to the power they have in acting as a group.
Ottima lista e guida. Ho iniziato la mia attività a fine dello scorso anno. Frutterò questa guida per ottimizzare il mio sito e la ricerca SEO sui motori di ricerca