It's that time again, friends... That time where I grade my 2016 predictions to see whether I've got the clout and foresight to get another shot in 2017. This year is gonna be really close, as I was more aggressive last year than in prior ones, so let's see where we end up, and what I've got to say for the next 12 months.
As always, my predictions will be graded on the following scale:
- Nailed It (+2) – When a prediction is right on the money and the primary criteria are fulfilled
- Partially Accurate (+1) – Predictions that are in the area, but are somewhat different than reality
- Not Completely Wrong (-1) – Those that landed near the truth, but couldn't be called "correct" in any real sense
- Way Off (-2) – Guesses which didn't come close
If I'm at breakeven or above, you can have more trust for what I'll posit for the year ahead. If not... Doom! Well, OK, maybe not doom. But at least shame and embarrassment and what I hope are lots of hilarious tweets at my expense.
Grading Rand's 2016 Predictions
#1: Data will reveal Google organic results to have <70% CTR
+2 – I won big with this one, though it was one of my more conservative projects. According to our clickstream data gathered in the summer, approximately 40% of Google searches do not garner any clicks at all. Granted, some of those are probably Google autocompleting a query before the searcher has finished typing, but given the threshold of 70%, I've got plenty of room to spare.
#2: Mobile will barely cut in to desktop's usage and its growth rate in developed countries will slow
+1 – I'm giving myself a conservative point here because while Google's mobile growth has appeared to have slightly more of a plateauing impact (data via SimilarWeb Pro, which shows Google on desktop at ~51% in 2015, down to ~49% in 2016, with mobile the reverse) on desktop search volume in the US, I have been unable to find data on the growth of mobile/desktop in developing countries. If someone has a source to help me better refine this prediction, please leave it in the comments.
BTW — I'll grant that SimilarWeb's data on Google usage probably isn't perfect, but they have enough of a sample set that the shift in mix from desktop to mobile is likely statistically significant and thus, the trend's probably accurate.
#3: Twitter will figure out how to grow again
-1 – While Twitter did indeed grow monthly active users in 2016 (from 305mm to 317mm) compared to 2015 (when they only grew from 302–305mm), that was a very low bar. Growth is growth, but I don't think Twitter has truly "figured out" how to grow yet. Maybe they'll take a page from Hunter Walk or Anil Dash.
#4: Social content engines will become a force
-1 – This is a tough one... SimilarWeb shows Pocket down in the overall app rankings but up as a referring source, and up on the mobile & desktop web with more engaged users on the platform. Meanwhile, Nuzzel has grown ~30% on the web (again, according to SimilarWeb). Instapaper and Feedly seem to be doing well, but not exceptionally so. I think these apps are a force in the influencer world, but their success breaking into the mainstream seems, as yet, limited.
#5: Yext will IPO, prompting even more interest in the world of local listings
-2 – I'm shocked I missed this one. I think Yext is probably still a likely IPO candidate in the next 12 months, but credit to them for staying private longer and building up for what I'm guessing will be a strong public offering.
#6: The death of normal distributions will hit both publishing and search results hard
+2 – Tragically, we did indeed see more consolidation, the loss of more news sources and networks, and the continued domination of Google's search results by the few over the many. I showed off our clickstream data on this in my MozCon intro:
#7: The rise of adblocking is going to trigger attempts at legislation and incite more sites to restrict adblocking users
-1 – One out of two isn't bad, but since my primary prediction was around legislation, I'll stay conservative and deduct a point. We did certainly see more sites, particularly ad-driven sites, shifting to subscriptions and getting much more aggressive in their treatment of adblocking users. Mashable wrote about how it appears, from many reports, that adblocking itself seems to have leveled off in 2016, which few would have predicted. Maybe the savvy users who wanted to avoid ads have all done their bit and most of the rest of the web's users don't mind ads all that much? Or maybe just not enough to do anything about it.
#8: DuckDuckGo will be the fastest-growing search engine of 2016
+2 – Barring perfect data for things like Amazon's Alexa/Echo (which is arguably a personal assistant, not a search engine) or for Google itself (which probably grew searches in the 10–15% range), it looks like this was spot on. Pretty impressive to see DuckDuckGo go from 8,606,321 searches per day on January 2nd, 2016 to 11,183,864 per day on January 2nd, 2017 — 30% year-over-year growth.
#9: Content marketing software for the non-enterprise will finally emerge
+1 – There's no clear, breakout market leader in content marketing software for SMBs (Canva might be on the brink). But, there are a lot of players and a few in strong positions. I'm not seeing any with tens of millions in pure SMB revenue, hence only one point, but this is a market space that even today is hotter than the SEO software space has ever been. There are at least 50 content marketing software companies with VC backing who have SMB offerings. In SEO, I don't think more than 5 companies have ever raised VC (versus private investment). And those 50 companies (plus the many private and unfunded ones) probably combine to serve a lot of customers, possibly more than the few SMB-focused SEO software companies ever have.
#10: The "big" trends for 2016: Wearables, VR, smart home, and Internet of Things will have almost no impact on the world of web marketing (yet)
-1 – I'm going to say that voice search applications that circumvent the web (and, thus, web marketing) are at least on the verge of having an impact on at least search, and possibly other channels soon too ("Alexa, read my Facebook feed to me so I don't have to see the ads.")
FINAL 2016 SCORE: +2
Whew! Just made it... Let's see what's on deck for the 12 months to come.
Rand's 8 Predictions for 2017
#1: Voice search will be more than 25% of all US Google searches within 12 months. Despite this, desktop volume will stay nearly flat and mobile (non-voice) will continue to grow.
I'm going out on a limb with this by predicting what most aren't — that voice search won't actually cannibalize desktop or typed mobile searches, but will instead just add on top of it. Today, between 20–25% of mobile queries are voice, but oddly, Google said in May 2016 the number was 20% whereas in September 2010, they'd said 25%. Either voice has been relatively flat, or the old number was incorrect.
KPCB's 2016 Trends report suggests the growth in voice search is higher, using implied Google Trends data (which, as those of us in SEO know, can be a dangerous, messy assumption). Clickstream data sampling and sources that track referrals (like SimilarWeb Pro) are likely better ways to measure the impact of cannibalization, and hopefully Google themselves (or third-party data sources with direct access) will report on the relative growth of voice to validate this.
In my opinion, voice search is the first true high-risk technology shift ever faced by the SEO world. If we see it cannibalize a substantive portion of search activity, we may find a pot that's been growing for 20 years is suddenly (possibly rapidly) shrinking. I'm still bullish on search growing for the next 2–3 years, but I'm watching the data carefully, as should we all.
#2: Google will remain the top referrer of website traffic by 5X+. Neither Facebook, nor any other source, will make a dent.
Here's SimilarWeb's breakdown for who sends traffic on the web:
My prediction is that Google continues to dominate, no matter the prognostications about Facebook or Snapchat or Amazon or anyone else making inroads to the overall traffic pie.
#3: The Marketing Technology space will not have much consolidation (fewer exits and acquisitions, by percentage, than 2015 or 2016), but there will be at least one major exit or IPO among the major SEO software providers.
Scott Brinker has been helpfully tracking the growth and changes to the marketing software landscape over the last decade, and there's been a metric ton of new entrants.
But, oddly enough, SEO has always remained a small player in the software world. The vast majority of the companies and tools in the list below are private, unfunded, and have annual revenues of <$1mm. A few larger players exist, but in every other marketing tech category, there's at least one player at 2–10X the size of our entire market combined.
Part of this is because very few entrepreneurs in the space have chosen to go the VC-backed, billions-or-bust route vs. pursue the relatively higher success and survival rates offered by small investors or bootstrapping. Part of it is because SEO as an industry is dependent on Google, which creates risk that many entrepreneurs and investors dislike. And part is because SEO has a bad reputation thanks to its shady past and a few spammy operators.
In 2017, I believe we'll see very little acquisition or IPO activity from martech players. But I think we will see one of the major SEO software players (most probably Yext, Searchmetrics, SEMRush, Brightedge, Conductor, STAT, Rio SEO, Sistrix, Yoast, or Moz itself) have a major exit. An IPO would make our field vastly more interesting to analysts and potentially investors and entrepreneurs, too. A large exit could start a wave of consolidation.
#4: Google will offer paid search ads in featured snippets, knowledge graph, and/or carousels.
In 2016, Google put shopping ads in image search, rolled out ads in local packs, and increased the number of top ads in AdWords to 4 (which can dominate many top-of-fold SERPs). Despite this, paid CTRs have been pretty flat.
Merkle/RKG data is awesomely transparent, but of course biased by the sites that use the agency and share their analytics/AdWords data. Directionally, it's usually solid, particularly on metrics like paid CTR, and I trust that it's rarely going to be way off. Their data also matches nicely to our own clickstream analyses, showing that 1.5%–2.5% of all search queries result in a click on a paid ad.
#5: Amazon search will have 4% or more of Google's web search volume by end of year.
You might have seen a report noting that Amazon is "beating" Google as the place consumers start their product searches. Unfortunately, that report used survey data, and we're all familiar with how poor web users are at estimating how they actually behave online.
Moz's clickstream data was more revealing here, showing that Amazon's probably ~2% the overall search volume of Google. You could certainly make the argument that perhaps only 4% of all Google searches are for products, and thus, Amazon is neck-and-neck. I suspect Google's still winning here, but my prediction is that Amazon will grow their search penetration and volume, in part thanks to Alexa/Echo, and in part because of their formidable Prime strategy, to be 4% or more of Google (doubling where they were this past summer).
#6: Twitter will remain independent, and remain the most valuable and popular network for publishers and influencers.
It's very in vogue to rag on Twitter — their share price has sunk. Their growth has been tepid. Trolls and abuse plague the platform and many of Twitter's leaders are culturally locked-in to a focus on "free speech" over improving the platform for abused and marginalized groups. Buzzfeed's report on these trends reveals a deep cultural rift that seems to be hurting the platform still.
Despite this, I'm bullish on Twitter remaining the most powerful way for publishers and influencers to connect, share, and converse. The platform's open systems (versus the closed ecosystems of Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, etc) and its huge media presence give it a hard-to-catch lead in this field. That, and no one else seems to be trying, possibly because Twitter hasn't shown the growth that closed networks like Facebook have.
My other prediction, that Twitter remains independent, is a thorny and unpopular one. Supposedly, Twitter's put itself up for sale, but the bidders have been less than excited (or perhaps the premium the company is seeking is simply too high). In 2017, I think we'll continue to see an independent Twitter, growing revenue and users slower than Wall Street wants, but maintaining their cultural and influencer status.
#7: The top 10 mobile apps will remain nearly static for the year ahead, with, at most, one new entrant and 4 or fewer position changes.
Mobile apps have been a bugbear for many big brands, marketers, and app creators. While apps have dominated time spent on mobile, apart from games, the money to be made and that precious time spent is almost all flowing to the top few apps.
Nielsen reported that Amazon broke into the top 10 this year, but apart from that, it's been fairly quiet in the rankings shakeups at the head of the app curve. What's scarier is that Google and Facebook own a full 8 of the top 10 apps, and those apps are responsible for more than 90% of all app activity.
This is a winner-take-all market, and one with a surprisingly short tail to its demand curve. I'm predicting almost no change in 2017. Apps will be dominated by these few. For SEOs, apps continue to provide some extra ranking opportunities, mostly in mobile on Android (and a little less on iOS), but the "App Takeover" of SERPs and mobile search never appeared. Hopefully, you didn't over-invest in the trend!
#8: 2017 will be the year Google admits publicly they use engagement data as an input to their ranking systems, not just for training/learning
2016 saw Google backtracking a bit on the issue of search/visit/click/pogostick data, most saliently via Paul Haahr's excellent slide deck, How Google Works: An Ranking Engineer's Perspective.
Now it's your turn — where do you think I'm right? Wrong? Crazy? And what predictions are you making for SEO and search marketing in 2017?
Thanks for checking out this year's predictions all. My questions for you:
For me, #1 has got to be that Google remains the leader in referrals (despite all the small, sampled, biased datasets suggesting otherwise, this has been true for more than a decade). On #2, I'm going with Amazon doubling its share of web search in a market where Google's still growing. My biggest surprise on #3 was that adblocking slowed down so dramatically -- I thought for sure it was a trend ripe to continue. And for trends that will affect my marketing decisions, the lack of consolidation in SEO/martech means that, for Moz, brand building outside the SEO world is going to be vastly less important than re-building a great product and data reputation inside it (something I think we have a real shot to do thanks to our re-focus).
Thanks for the predictions for this year and the more than frank assessment of your 2016 predictions and how they panned out.
Fantastic wrap up, and I'm just as surprised as you about Yext. Either they're very bullish on the role of citations/profile management, or they want to develop their secondary products more before IPOing.
1. I'm 100% with you on the Twitter prediction. Their stock has basically been flat all year and it would be a mistake for them to sell off before combating some of their bad press. Hopefully they'll also admit they're flooded with bots and start stomping them out, even if it hurts their monthly active user numbers.
2. The only prediction I don't agree with is your last one. If Google admitted to using engagement data as a ranking factor it could set off the largest experiment in engagement data spam to date. I don't think they're ready to handle (or take responsibility for) an unprecedented rise in click spam, account hacking, botnets, DDoS attacks, and botched Analytics data. They're better off letting legit SEOs read between the lines than calling the spam community to arms.
3. My biggest surprise is how aggressive Google has gotten about monetizing search. The rise of their Home Service Ads are particularly troubling/interesting.
4. The Home Service Ads will be a big issue for me if they keep rolling out across the country, because they impact a couple of my focus industries. This year, I want to focus on helping my clients build brands that differentiate their companies on something other than service and pricing, so they can win clicks outside of paid positions.
I agree with Joe in his point 2 about the last prediction. The influence of engagement data is best not announced if it is a significant influence. I have always believed that what success I have comes in good part from generating good stats by focussing of what the visitor might be thinking.
Incidentally, being a bit of a conspiracy theorist, when browsers invented tab pages my immediate thought was how would Google know which tab I'm looking at. Not long after that Google announced the Chrome browser and I had my answer.
I don't think they will be looking at the public version of Google Analytics for engagement. I once had a fantastic bounce rate by accidentally including the code at the top and bottom of the page at the same time.
The trouble with engagement data is that it can be very ambiguous. I suspect a very good reason to focus on artificial intelligence is that it might be very useful in this area.
As always, I love the predictions, Rand.
Thanks for the post about future of SEO! it will help a lot to me in 2017 SEO, now SEO will be for Mobile apps :)
Greetings! But, we'll see, Google sometimes is just crazy, the seo can change suddenly and without an advice.
You list looks good, even the 4th one, which can appear a crazy thing for some people.
The best thing we can do is to do experiments,, with the scientific method, of course.
About your first prediction on the voice search. A lot of those queries are commands. Do we still count those as searches? I mean, the graph here shows growth for commands like "call mom" and "call dad", what about the growth in real search queries like "where to buy a jacket" or something like that.
What I'm trying to say is, are we really seeing the growth in voice search or just more people start using voice commands on their phones?
It's a fair point. I think we need to watch how (or if) voice queries cannibalize web searches that would have shown results. I believe it's possible they will to some degree, but my guess is those queries that it replaces are the ones that often led to very few or no clicks (instant answers, feature snippets that satisfied searchers, etc).
I was thinking the exact same thing. I feel as if a line needs to be drawn between commands and actual searches. But then what about typed commands on desktop? e.g. "stopwatch". I'm not asking Google to search "stopwatch" for me, I typed "stopwatch" into Google as a command as I want to use the stopwatch functionality. But should that be categorised as a command or a search?
Voice searches on Alexa and Google home for ecommerce will eventually eclipse desktop traffic. Distinguishing between commands like "call mom" or "book me the cheapest flight to Vegas" will be a non issue and data that SEO's will not have direct access to. This will change search drastically since there will be no CTR, or optimizing the website visually in the long term.
Eventually is a broad term. I don't think it's going to happen anytime soon. here's why: https://www.google.com.ua/webhp?sourceid=chrome-in...
according to number of studies 81 to 94% of users conduct a research before ordering something online.
Will people stop reading reviews and checking the prices just because there's a magic box in their living room now? Will people stop caring how the stuff they order online looks like? "Alexa, order me a blue jacket" doesn't sound as good as example with tickets.
Also, how many people actually plan to buy alexa or google home? How many can afford it? How many will use it? How many people heard of those even? We discuss these things because our lives are closely tied to search and devices related to it. We see it in our news feeds, we communicate with people who also know about it. As I typed this, I asked a girl in my office what is Alexa / Google Home? She had no idea.
So maybe eventually, but not soon enough for us to care about it.
Whether by design (Google restricting data it shares with SEOs) or simply changes in how the public use SEs, we as SEOs seem to be destined to get less and less clear cut data on which to base our decisions.
From what I've been noticing throughout 2016 in both SEO and PPC search queries, there are more personalized type of messages like "I need XXX", "find me XXX". Searchers are talking to devices, and they are passing these queries when someone go further in results. I think next step here well be on how these devices will differentiate users' commands actually understanding them in tandem with search engines' algorithms evolution (rank brain etc).
I actually disagree slightly with this framing, Igor. As Alex Adekola points out below, the difference between commands and searches is no longer (or will no longer be) relevant.
Just because you can't search "order me a pizza from Domino's" and have a pizza show up at your doorstep doesn't mean that that voice query isn't going to cannibalize a desktop search for "Domino's pizza."
Agreed there are commands/skills/whatever that aren't cannibalistic, but in Local especially--especially the high-volume head queries that Yelp and others are used to targeting, I see Voice eating into many, many of those.
That's a great question Igor!
I wonder if Google is differentiating commands from true queries?
Google is listening to us a lot more than we probably think. A recent talk given by a Google Voice Search Engineer revealed that they saw a huge spike in "kdkdkdkd" queries in British English. After looking further into this, it was simply the subways/trains making that noise, which they could then account for.
Agree with David Mihm that the difference between commands and searches might no longer be relevant. The data would be fascinating though!
Indeed, CTR predication is almost accurate. As of now, voice search is more than a personal assistance. I have seen many users who use Google Allo for their queries. AMP pages and amazing user experience will be the top-most priority for the SEOs. There will be more improved Google RankBrain algorithm updates and year gonna be much harder for SEOs.
Hey Rand, these predictions are undeniable, somehow it contradict others wordings but I do agree. For what points I am very sure are:
Hello Rand,
Really good predictions for 2017..
Below are my answers for your questions
Q. 1.Which of these do you think is most likely to happen?
A. I thinks #2 Google will remain the top referrer of website traffic by 5X+... most likely happen.
Q. How about least?
A. I thinks this point #3 The Marketing Technology space will not have much consolidation.. would be happen least.
Q. What are your biggest surprises from 2016?
A. The Biggest surprise from 2016 would be #8: DuckDuckGo will be the fastest-growing search engine of 2016
Q. Which trend do you expect will actually affect your SEO or web marketing practices most? What will make you shift tactics or strategy and why?
A. Apart from the predictions the trend that I do expect will actually affect our SEO most would be backlinks and content strategy..
Strategy that make me shift tactics is focus more on content rather than backlinks.
Hi Rand,
Really good post, your predictions for 2.016 was fine, and I think 2.017 too, for me;
#1. I think 25% is maybe too much, but it's going to be growing and growing, specially in non-USA countries.
#2. Google Referrer Traffic, my opinion is the same as yours.
#3. Google Referrer Traffic, my opinion is the same as yours.
#4. Yeah! Google it's thinking on it surely.
#5. Completly agree.
#6. I think Twitter remains independent, and, probably, without growing.
#7. Completly agree.
#8. Completly agree, they cannot tell us more about studing it :P
Hard to argue with those points. I'm glad you have highlighted contradictions between what Google guidelines say and what actually happens in reality.
For web devs, it's easier to quote guidelines than trust SEO "experts" in a field with such a low barrier to entry. Whether Google will become more transparent remains to be seen. There is still too much hiding of organic traffic in the Direct channel for my liking.
As an Alexa user, it has stunned me how much I would rather just use voice than have to navigate even our in-car touchscreen. The next five years are going to be very interesting
That's a great point too Andrew. Depending on how much of organic search is still hidden in "direct" it could be that search (and search referrals) are growing much more than what we can see (though clickstream should unravel some of that for us at the broadest trend level).
Loved reading this. Gives a broad understanding of how the landscape is moving.
Your Voice search prediction seems like the most likely candidate
Regardless of whether or not people use voice for commands or more broadly with various degrees of intent when searching, desktop and mobile search will remain the same at lest this year.
It's just like with Snapchat becoming a thing, and long before that Pinterest or instagram, or the entire app market in general... Voice will give new options, and that means greater interaction with the internet, but won't subtract from the usefulness of typed search.
Or as you pointed out in your comment above- those searches are usually low CTR , and have a different intent anyhow.
Twitter, despite circling beliefs, will remain popular
It's unique, and indeed the most powerful way for publishers and influencers to connect. Cannot see how another platform can provide this.
However, though counter-intuitive, excessive moderation might hurt more than it helps. Everything lately is easily deemed hate/racist/harassment speech.. Take for example the blocking of Martin Shkreli's account. The guy mock-flirted and that's it. Access denied.
In a broader perspective, it's weird to see the bullies being bullied nowadays, but I guess that's a cultural thing that's been going on recently and the discourse in many verticals is following it.
If platforms like Facebook and Twitter go down such a road, the internet might soon become a really hostile place for those that are being deemed hostile. Justly or otherwise.
Progressive web apps will become HUGE
This might be a rapidly growing trend for 2017. One that has been overlooked. It can be the equivalent of apps showing for the first time.
Advertisement might take a hit here as well.
Cannot see the connection with search here, but I can see this contributing to mobile staying strong and avoiding plateaus in growth.
Podcasting and video will grow even more
This will help in further changing the advertising landscape as well.
Links will be harder to get, and quality content marketing campaigns will be in bigger demand
Large sites (like the Huffington post), one by one, are putting less and less stock in user generated content. Links are no-followed, accounts harder to open, and all this mostly due to link manipulations in recent years.
More weight will be placed on holistic marketing campaigns. And even more so on content.
What agencies like BuiltVisible are doing might become a necessity and norm rather than rare examples. That being said, such digital marketing agencies will have more and more work in 2017.
My attention will go into...
What Chelsea from Unboud have shared on Moz last month seems like a reminder on where quality content efforts might concentrate (multimedia).
And with the on-demand fitness platform that we have recently launched, there is hardly any other way to gain visibility.
So all that being said, I will focus more on content marketing (10X content), with growing focus on video and podcast.
Slavko
Fantastic post, Rand. I was pleased to see we are in agreement on the explosion of Voice, as I know we've historically disagreed on Mobile.
Was also interested to hear your thoughts on the content marketing landscape. Completely agree there is a big opportunity to attract SMB's there.
Hello, Rand! Interesting predictions. I din't know the Amazon search data but it's awesome, it's another unstoppable platform. I share your opinion on Twitter. Although it's a social network full of trolls, I think it has many possibilities for brands. What most worries me are the searches by voice, I find it difficult to adapt the webs to this new reality. Thanks for the info, Rand! :)
I agree with your prediction that Twitter will remain the most popular network for influencers and publishers. Just wanted to ask why do you personally think Twitter and not Facebook or Linkedin, is the most convenient?
Thanks,
Stacey.
About your second predication "Mobile will barely cut in to desktop's usage and its growth rate in developed countries will slow".. Google will give preferance to mobile seach more then desktop. All website starts focusing on mobile search because mobile user are increasing day by day.
Hi Rand,
I have read your blog and its absolutely awesome of all that data which you have research.Now onwards all websites will start focus on mobile website with whole responsive because day by day users are increasing for mobile website rather then desktop version. Thanks for sharing these information with us...
Awesome predictions Rand!
Voice Search Prediction #1: Seems conservative, my guess is > 30%
Google Referral Prediction #2: Completely agree.
Marketing Tech Space Prediction #3: You're a ninja in this space so I'll have to agree. Also, because I have no idea.
Ads In Featured Snippet Prediction #4: I would hate to see ads commandeer Featured Snippets! Ahh, suppose it's only a matter of time though...*tear*
Amazon Product Search % Prediction #5: >30% <-I'm feeling crazy! I've also been inundated with articles telling me that, "Over 50% of product searches start on Amazon!!!", consider me brainwashed.
Twitter = Top Platform For Influencers Prediction #6: You bet your crazy socks and over priced scotch it will!
The Top 10 Mobile Apps Will Remain Stagnant Prediction #7: The fact that Google & Facebook own 90% of all App activity makes me a little sick. I'll be as bold as to predict that we will see a huge decrease in apps all together. Why? Progressive Web Apps are going to come out swinging! [inappropriate Rousey joke deleted here]
Google Admits They Use Engagement Data Prediction #8: I don't see the benefit to Google releasing that information. The spam backlash and inquiries would give them whiplash.
- May The Odds Ever Be In Your Favor -
Thanks for the content marketing company for SMBs, didn't know about them and will check them out.
Twitter amazes me, it seems to me like it is so incredibly spammy. Business talking to each other is what I see on the platform. Sure there are more users. How many of them are real people who want to spend money?
For this year 1. 2. 4. 7 looks realistic. I'm not so sure about others, Rand.
On #8. No they won't. They've been using engagement data and denied vehemently for at least 3-4 years. After the release of Penguin and Panda they had to rank somehow the sites that had lots of links and have been found use-full by users in front of the sites that just had a lot of links but users hated them, and my guess is that they used the most unbiased metric they had. It's better that they use this metric quietly. Few know it and use it, so the the vast majority of sites stay unbiased in this direction. Best regards, nice post, keep up the good work.
Rand, I think 10 mobile apps will remain at the same position at the end of 2017/
Great article, What was your score from last year? I'm also curious to see if there is a change in how people search a bit more down the hummingbird route and how that affects search which is in line with your alexa etc. prediction.
Interesting and insightful article. Great information for anyone who is curious about SEO in 2017. I have just researched that all the mentioned predictions, all are quite helpful for my site to get better ranking. Thanks a lot
Thanks for this interesting post.
I'm not sure about that voice search will be more than 25% of all US Google searches (we will see), but I agree with you that Amazon search will have 4% or more of Google's web search volume by end of year and that Twitter will remain independent, and remain the most valuable and popular network for publishers and influencers.
I think that the searches by voice in Latin America are going to have a very slow growth, I feel that we are still embarrassed to do it, it is my opinion
Hi Rand, Excellent & Great post indeed! I liked the way you tiding this information, even a newbie can understand the process. It’s really great information looking forward to more of the same.
Adblocking is an extension of google chrome and that more and more users are installing it.
If google lives advertising, why not remove adblocking from the chrome store
Google was very smart to launch AMP and prevent a huge switch away from mobile web browsing towards native apps. AMP keeps users engaged with Google search on mobile devices.
I expect Google will keep throwing a lot of weight behind AMP, and 2017 is the year that decides if AMP has a long shelf-life or if it’ll end up as another one of Google’s doomed projects.
The adoption of AMP beyond static news stories will be key to this; both in terms of the functionality AMP offers for interactive experiences, and the ease with which websites can implement these features.
Keep a sharp eye on AMP for ecommerce and the way AMP results will be highlighted in SERPs. Already we see Google highlighting the advantages of AMP to its users – if this takes a stronger hold, AMP could well become the new de facto standard for mobile web pages.
Nice post. I agree with most of your predictions but as I know you haven´t got a magic glass ball. It would be great if you can get 70% correct predictions. ;)
Thanks !
I think that Google will continue to be the giant of the search engines for many years but small e-commerce should not stop looking at Amazon and although I do not like your rules a lot or you follow them or you lose a great business opportunity. Facebook is very important to take into account not only when it comes to getting followers and if not that is to exploit it as a sales channel with which you can get the same results or even better than with Google for a small business.
A greeting!!
I wish this predictions happnes in 2017.
Awesome predictions Rand!
Great as usual Rand! I already read the article about the voice search where you said what kind of search can affect the reader doesn´t on the page, but I´d like to know if you have any ideas on how we could use this kind of search
Greetings!
We are Moonline Travel and Trade company / Iraq, we tried to start using Moz SEO however our country was not in the registration list, any advice please!
Regards,
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Some very interesting predictions for the new year. I feel that at some stage Google may give a boost in the ranking to AMP enabled websites in the mobile index.
DuckDuckGo is really flying! I wonder if Google's big push towards security is a response to DuckDuckGo slowly eating into market share?
Do you have any visibility on which search engines lost market share?
Hello Rand,
Such a awesome predictions.
Below are my views on your questions :
1.Which of these do you think is most likely to happen?
According to me is your 1st Prediction "Voice search will be more than 25% of all US Google searches within 12 months. "
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2.How about least?
Least is "Google will offer paid search ads in featured snippets, knowledge graph, and/or carousels."
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3.What are your biggest surprises from 2016?
Biggest surprise is your 8th Prediction of 2016 "DuckDuckGo will be the fastest-growing search engine of 2016."
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4.Which trend do you expect will actually affect your SEO or web marketing practices most? What will make you shift tactics or strategy and why?
For me, Voice search And also ASO.
Hi Rand,
TY for the post, very informative.
I believe "Local" and "UX" will continue to be a focal point with Search. The ability to localize a search and provide the best UX will evolve to dominate both desktop and especially mobile. SEO'rs that adjust their content for the best UX possible, will rise to the top.
KJr
Good morning Rand, we are a company dedicated to SEO and web design in Spain. I have read your complete blog and it is very interesting. Of all the data that you have offered, I agree with you that the voice search will increase in 2017 but I am surprised, as you, that in September 2010 there would be more voice searches than in May 2016. Google will continue as a reference In web traffic and that amazon will continue to grow. The google and facebook mobile applications will continue to dominate the market and will not change in 2017. I think the only doubt I have with regard to what you have published is if Twitter will continue to grow .... Thank you very much for your blog and for Your ideas, you're great! :)
(I was wondering yesterday when you'd post this... It's been over a week, Rand! I've been waiting! XD)
Some very interesting data, brilliant round-up of 2016.
As for your 2017 prediction that stood out the most to me...
#8: 2017 will be the year Google admits publicly they use engagement data as an input to their ranking systems, not just for training/learning
I feel as if I've been waiting for this admission for years. But I just don't think it's going to happen. I don't even know why; just a heavy gut feeling. It would be huge, and I just can't think of a reason why they'd confirm it or admit to it unless the announcement were to follow something else of relevance.
Hey Rand! Those are some interesting predictions you got there. While your predictions on Google Ads placement in featured snippets and Twitter for influencers are spot on, I have to disagree on your last prediction. I don’t think Google will make such a confession this year, as it would, pretty much, put their entire business model to shame. Think about it- if engagement data is taken as a ranking factor, then isn’t Google falling prey to the very click spam they have campaigned against?
Thank's a lot for this prediction report.
01. I think about voice search and Twitter prediction
02. Amazon Search
03. They published Ranking Engineer's Perspective
04. Voice Search
Hi Rand,
4th and 8th predictions are the most shocking predictions. Google is making a lot of effort in arranging data systematic and may be make standard for all to arrange data according to rich snippet.
For 8th point I think its still an over estimation, as if Google announce that they rank on back linking then there might be a problem as then everyone tries to mess the system.
BTW Great Info and keep predicting :)
I have a prediction for you all: Backlinks will drop in relevancy in the ranking algorithm. I predict that once mobile-index takes effect and Rankbrain takes over, backlinks will become less important. (Mic drop.)
I politely disagree with you Brian.
Google relies on relational data (links in this case) to better understand objects (web pages), it's baked into their algorithm, how else could they possibly stay on top of the millions of web pages published everyday?
Have a very hard time believing link relevancy will drop anytime soon.
On #2 from last year - desktop vs. mobile usage, I use this https://gs.statcounter.com/#all-comparison-ww-monthly-201512-201612! Hope this helps!
So your 2016 Predictions were 10% correct, eh? Not bad. I agree mostly with your #4 prediction for 2017. That's revenue, baby.
Hi,
Excellent & Great post indeed!
You are right Dear, Thank you!
I liked the way you worded this information so even a newbie can understand the process. Great information looking forward to more of the same.
It's really an inspirational one!! But hard work is also a requirement. What a super, empowering and wise post to kick the year off.
Great Article.
Thanks!