Maybe it takes a bit of daring to forecast local search developments in quarters 2, 3, and 4 from the fresh heights of Q1, but the Moz team thrives on challenges. In this post, Rand Fishkin, Dr. Pete Meyers, George Freitag, Britney Muller, and I peer into the future in hopes of helping your local business or local search marketing agency be mentally and tactically prepared for an exciting ride in the year ahead.
1. There will be a major shakeup in local SEO ranking factors.
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Rand Fishkin, Founder & Wizard of Moz |
My prediction is that the local SEO ranking factors will have a major shakeup, possibly devaluing some of the long-held elements around listing consistency from hard-to-control third parties. I think Google might make this move because, while they perceive the quality and trustworthiness of those third-party local data aggregators to be decent, they don't want to force small business owners into maintaining contentious relationships or requiring them to learn about these services that control so much of their ranking fate. I'll be the first to say this is a bold prediction, and I don't give it super-high odds, but I think even if it doesn't happen in 2017, it's likely in the next few years.
2. Feature diversification will continue to mature.
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Dr. Peter J. Myers, Marketing Scientist at Moz |
I predict that local SEO will finally see the kind of full-on feature diversification (organic and paid) that has been going on with organic for a few years now. We've already seen many changes to local packs and the introduction of local knowledge panels, including sponsored hotel panels. Now Google is testing paid home services, ads in local packs, destination carousels, trip planning guides and, most recently, "Discover More Places" map results. By the end of 2017, "local SEO" will represent a wide variety of organic and paid opportunities, each with their own unique costs and benefits. This will present both new opportunities and new complications.
3. Voice search will influence features in Google and Amazon results.
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George Freitag, Local Search Evangelist at Moz |
I also think we'll see a new wave of features appear in the local pack over the next year. I believe that voice search will play a large part in this as it will determine the most important features that Google (and Amazon) will incorporate into their results. As both companies start to gather more and more data about the types of complex searches — like "How long will it take me to get there?" or something more ambitious like "Do they have any more of those in my size" — Google and Amazon will start to facilitate businesses in answering those questions by allowing more opportunities to directly submit information. This satisfies both Google's desire to have even more data submitted directly to them and the searcher's desire to have access to more information about the businesses, which means it's something that is definitely worth their time.
4. Google will begin to provide incredibly specific details about local businesses.
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Britney Muller, SEO & Content Architect at Moz |
I predict that we will see Google acquiring more intimate details about local businesses. They will obtain details from your customers (via different incentives) for unbiased feedback about your business. This will help Google provide searchers with a better user experience. We've already started seeing this with "Popular Times" and the "Live" features, showing you if current traffic is under or over the typical amount for the specific location. Your location's level of noise, coziness, bedside manner (for doctors and clinics), and even how clean the bathroom is will all become accessible to searchers in the near future.
5–10. Six predictions for the price of one!
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Miriam Ellis, Moz Associate & Local SEO |
I have a half-dozen predictions for the coming year:
Diminishing free packs
Google paid packs will have replaced many free packs by 2017's end, prompting local business owners to pay to play, particularly in the service industries that will find themselves having to give Google a piece of the pie in exchange for leads.
Voice search will rise
Local marketers will need to stress voice search optimization to business owners. Basically, much of this will boil down to including more natural language in the site's contents and tags. This is a positive, in that our industry has stressed natural language over robotic-sounding over-optimization for many years. Voice search is the latest incentive to really perfect the voice of your content so that it matches the voice your customers are using when they search. Near-me searches and micro-moment events tie in nicely to the rise of voice search.
Expansion of attributes
Expect much discussion of attributes this year as Google rolls out further attribute refinements in the Google My Business dashboard, and as more Google-based reviewers find themselves prompted to assign attributes to their sentiments about local businesses.
Ethical businesses will thrive
Ongoing study of the millennial market will cement the understanding that serving this consumer base means devoting resources to aspirational and ethical business practices. The Internet has created a segment of the population that can see the good and bad of brands at the click of a link, and who base purchasing decisions on that data. Smart brands will implement sustainable practices that guard the environment and the well-being of workers if they want millennial market share.
Google will remain dominant
What won't happen this year is a major transfer of power from the current structure. Google will remain dominant, but Facebook will continue to give them the best run for their money. Apple Maps will become more familiar to the industry. Yelp will keep building beyond the 115 million reviews they've achieved and more retail business owners will realize Yelp is even bigger for their model than it is for restaurants. You've pretty much got to be on Yelp in 2017 if you are in the retail, restaurant, or home service industries.
Amazon’s local impact will increase
Amazon's ingress into local commerce will almost certainly result in many local business models becoming aware of the giant coming to town, especially in metropolitan communities. I'm withholding judgement on how successful some of their programs (like Amazon Go) will be, but local business owners need to familiarize themselves with these developments and see what's applicable to them. David Mihm recently mentioned that he wouldn't be surprised to see Amazon buying a few bankrupt malls this year — that wouldn't surprise me, either.
Taken in sum, it’s a safe bet that local SEO is going to continue to be a significant force in the world of search in the coming year. Local business owners and the agencies which serve them will be wise to stay apprised of developments, diversifying tactics as need arises.
Now it’s your turn! Do you agree/disagree with our predictions? And how about your forecast? When you look to the future in local, what do you foresee? Please help us round out this post with predictions from our incredibly smart community.
This isn't a prediction, just what I would like to see.....
When I search for, as example, a physician in a small town, instead of finding the websites of physicians, the SERPs are full of directory-like sites such as... ratemds.com, heathgrades.com, superpages.com, ucomparehealthcare.com, vitals.com and wellness.com. I don't want these sites, they are outdated and have little information beyond ads, addresses, more ads, phone numbers, and more ads. I need a way to get to the websites of the physicians so I can judge their practice by what they present on the web.
Thank you very much EGOL that exactly what I wanted say in my below comment as Google is not showing appropriate results that I expects. But this issues i found from several years i believe they are still working and hope we will find better results in 2017.
Thank you Faisal, Perhaps Google can solve this by placing an option in the search or enabling a filter in the query string that will deliver only sites from the professional or business being queried and eliminate the directory-type sites that are made only to display ads.
They should be able to do this already - by knowing the categories of the business. I.E Dentist, Neurologist etc. So they should be able to comfortably prioritize the actual practice above the medical directories.
Really agree with you. And what's the reason they don't do? Economical reasons?
Hey Egol :)
My gosh, I know exactly what you mean about that. I truly share your wish!
Yeah (both hands yup) agree with Egol and Miriam, at this day and age it seems funny to me with all the improvements/testing/changes to local search that this still exists.
Yes exactly, that's because of the authority of those websites, relevancy of the contents and title. As there are no human's sitting behind SERP results, it's all working as per the given commands to robots based on search queries (as per my knowledge). If they will filter the result category wise (as we needed), it will increase their job and a lot of things will be required to change by them in SERP.
As a marketer, we all will think this way, but as a normal searcher, nobody cares and knows about it. Everybodoy is just looking for help, whatever they search, they need answers.
I hope Google will consider such things and help us out any way :) . BDW, great read Miriam, interesting one.
Google is becoming a directory of directories for local search (something that they did not want to do).
I agree... because I don't have this problem for other types of search. Only when I want to find professionals or businesses in small towns. There is no way that they can compete with these big directories with the current Google algo.
I might have agreed a few weeks ago but I have found that if you can get snippets working for you then you can beat the directories and large sites.
It takes a page with good content and a bit of hard work ... but isn't that what SEO is about ,, the hard work!
Hey EGOL: Interesting: The kinds of results you are describing for doctors in a small town are somewhat like the results google is currently showing for hotels in every city everywhere. The reasons are somewhat different: But the results with everything in the organic serps BUT the actual websites for the local doctors in the smaller cities and towns or for actual hotel properties in any city anywhere.
For hotels: The vertical is SO monetized and google has its fingers on so much of the money...that it doesn't want the hotel properties to show. So it highlights the On Line Travel Agent sites (OTA's) and other sites and devalues the web properties. Its tough for a hotel to show up in the top 10 in serps. (I bet you might have read that elsewhere--;) ).
For small town docs....usually their websites aren't that strong and the directories and professional sites are strong. The local doc sites get pushed down. Directories get pushed up.
I think google has a strong reason for doing this besides their "algo's.". Its called advertising in Adwords. If Doc Ock the local Ear Nose and Throat Specialist in the small town of Podunk, Pa, can't get his website found when searching for ENT Doctor, Podunk PA...or ENT Doctor near me (when the searcher is located in Podunk)...then Doc Ock might just spend some money in Adwords for visibility.
If I'm searching for a local Doc..I want reviews, reviews reviews. Then I want to speak with my local friends and neighbors to see who they like.
Hi EGOL,
Excellent comment, and I'm sorry I was out of the office with a bug when it came in. I concur with your wish to see real businesses outranking directories with inaccurate or limited data in them. And, at the same time, I wish those directories would up their game, given the prominence they enjoy. Some directories (like Yelp) do an amazing job, as a resource for finding businesses, but some of the niche ones are all but useless. Really good point.
You are absolutely right EGOL. Google does not shows the websites of individual professionals in organic search results. But it does shows the map data above search results that comes handy most of the time...and if you want to go to the website of these professionals, then you just need to click on "more places" below the map data, it will show you a list of the professionals that you are looking for, and the link to their website.
Interesting predictions. I've seen some interesting processes described in patents from Google that sound like they stand a good chance of being developed. They involve location-based tracking of phones, including mapping of magnetic fields around electrical power lines. If Google offers recommendations for businesses, and can tell if people go to the places being recommended, it might boost the recommendations for that particular businss in search results; and if people don't go to that business, it might demote that recommendation in results for that business. Similarly, Google may calculate an investment in time for someone to get to businesses that they see in search results, and if people actually go to places that they see in those results, rankings for such businesses might be boosted in results; if people don't go to those places, the rankings of them might be demoted. Both approaches require people to actually visit the places that they've seen at Google, whether in recommendations or search results; and it also requires actual tracking of their location to see if those people visit those places. For the investment in time boost for results, it may also require that a person spend a certain threshold amount of time at the business in quesion for it to be boosted.
Actual visits like that would be strong signals. It would be interesting seeing Google use those processes.
This is a lgical extension of UX. The consumer doesn't just follow the link from SERPS to a webpage or video. They then go onto to experience the business with the measure being the dwell time at the location. If that location were an art gallery or public park time would be the measure. But where the destination is a retail environment it could be the sum spent via google wallet!
Hi Bill!
If Google offers recommendations for businesses, and can tell if people go to the places being recommended, it might boost the recommendations for that particular businss in search results; and if people don't go to that business, it might demote that recommendation in results for that business.
I would love to see this used to enable small business websites prevail over the big directories like superpages, healthgrades, etc. These big directories often do not link to the very sites that they rate, recommend and make ad income from using their info.
Hi EGOL,
I really liked this idea from Google a lot. People actually going to places that are recommended, and those places being boosted because of it. That is a very likeable situation and result.
The patent also tells us that kind of boosting wouldn't happen unless the person doing the visiting spent a certain threshold amount of time there on their visit. Which could reinforce the value of the recommendation - sort of like the knowledge panels that now tell us how long people tend to stay at a place when then visit them, which is another nice feature as well.
Isn't anyone concerned about privacy????
Hi Bill!
Just wanted to say how much I enjoyed reading about these patents. Thank you so much for taking the time to reference and explain them.
Thanks, Miriam. I do find the local search patents really interesting. It's fascinating seeing the differences between them in patents about web-based businesses.
Some very interesting predictions here!
I am not that good in predicting, but there is something which I guess will be on rise in 2017 as well - "local queries with near me". As mobile searches are growing, we can definitely see more use of such queries like restaurants near me, ATMs near me, etc.
I wish Google will be more accurate in 2017 (or in coming years) in showing search results for such queries based on the actual location of the user. Like, if the user is standing on some ABC Street in XYZ area and searching 'food courts near me', then Google first show all the results for ABC street and then can give more available options in XYZ area.
Thanks
Hi Praveen!
What I have heard is that we are headed to a point in which we'll be seeing results within feet of us - imagine that! But I'm not sure when we'll see this. I like your idea of street-based and then area-based SERPs. Google should take notes :)
I think we will say goodbye to SERPs with only one need satisfied and see different sort of solutions, not in the first page, but in the first results. I mean, high quality content would be beaten by a different content if this last satisfies a different need and this is the best of his kind.
Hi Miriam!
I agree with that 10 topics, but specially with numer 4, I think with all data Google can get now from different database (you know, the local shop/retail/hotel/whatever website, Booking, TripAdvisor, etc) and with RankBrain, rich snippets and Schema.org markup, this year we are going to see lots of things in that segment.
What do you think about it?
this is one I've started to focus on. So I've now added my google star ratings into schema and have them showing on page one. Better still my snippets are now showing (where I've optimised for this).
Nice Stefan, with this you should improve your results :)
Agree with you, Sergio & Stefan ... and I think the rise of attributes is showing us just how granular Google wants to go. It's as though the whole concept of relevance to the query is being refined into smaller and smaller elements. Good thinking, guys!
Hi Miriam! I think so, Google is moving granular in SEO on-page and off-page equaly, maybe it's time for local too, I think this trend may bring us better results, but we'll see ;)
As the owner of a local business, I can't decide if I am excited about the future of a "Paid 3 pack" or not. On one hand, I don't currently get much traffic as I'm usually not in the 3 pack, so this would opportunity for me to get more visibility, despite having to pay for it. On the other hand, I want as much "free" marketing as I can get, and this takes away from that!
Google will do what's best for their bottom line. Small businesses are going to continue getting crushed by changes like this, as it will definitely increase my customer acquisition cost. For big brands, they thrive in this type of environment because their brand recognition spans markets.
An interesting point, but I think there is a lot of data to suggest a large part of profits come from SMEs as apposed to the larger companies. There is more competition with smaller companies.
I think however, that small companies are going to have to start shifting their priorities and invest in marketing to ensure they aren't being crushed. Not something all companies can afford to do...
My prediction is as follows, Google will do whatever it takes to make sure no one can manipulate search rank factors. There are 2 ways to rank. Doing the right things so that ranking occurs naturally, or figuring out what technical metrics spark one to rank, and then manipulating your page and actions on internet to agitate those metrics. Google will keep on trying to see if they can manipulate these metrics and research how they do it. Then come up with new updates that make it hard to manifest those tactics. Indeed this is exactly what all of you have said before and above. The difference here is a simple message. Forget all the shortcuts, just do things right and this will yield one simple thought, Who gives a hoot what anyone thinks what google will do next. As long as you don't care for the shortcuts, google can't harm you!
Agreed. Think UX the same as Google. That way you stay white and get good results. In time Google will deal with directories if tha tis in the interest of the searcher .. but not otherwise.
(Happy Valentine's Day, Miriam!)
I can definitely see paid local results coming out of testing and being rolled out sometime this year... Unfortunately, it just makes good business sense for them to get new markets into paid advertising. I think I might have a little cry when that eventually happens though...
There will definitely be even more of a focus on local this year, whatever happens. You can certainly see the direction that Google is going based on last year's changes to local SERPs.
Aw! Thank you, Ria. Happy Valentine's Day to you, too, and I think we may need to pass out handkerchiefs to many businesses as the pay-to-play scenario becomes more widespread. On the one hand, the vetting behind some of Google's programs can, in fact, be a safeguard. On the other hand, SMB budgets will feel some pain in stretching to compete. Thanks for sharing your good thoughts.
Agree. Google and healthcare are killing small businesses.
Favorite Prediction:
by Rand
"they (Google) don't want to force small business owners into maintaining contentious relationships or requiring them to learn about these services that control so much of their ranking fate."
Excellent point. IMO, Google will integrate into algorithm soon and in my experience may have already done so in many cases. For example; I believe that some of the Yext directory partners, those that can only be updated via Yext have already been discounted by Google. However, there are others like Yahoo that have not IMO.
It does not seem rational that Google would penalize or reward rankings for participation in a directory or website with behaviors of any pay for play submission.
2nd Favorite Prediction:
by Bill S.
"Interesting predictions. I've seen some interesting processes described in patents from Google that sound like they stand a good chance of being developed. They involve location-based tracking of phones, including mapping of magnetic fields around electrical power lines. If Google offers recommendations for businesses, and can tell if people go to the places being recommended, it might boost the recommendations for that particular business in search results; and if people don't go to that business, it might demote that recommendation in results for that business. Similarly, Google may calculate an investment in time for someone to get to businesses that they see in search results, and if people actually go to places that they see in those results, rankings for such businesses might be boosted in results; if people don't go to those places, the rankings of them might be demoted. Both approaches require people to actually visit the places that they've seen at Google, whether in recommendations or search results; and it also requires actual tracking of their location to see if those people visit those places. For the investment in time boost for results, it may also require that a person spend a certain threshold amount of time at the business in question for it to be boosted.
Actual visits like that would be strong signals. It would be interesting seeing Google use those processes."
‘Google acquiring more intimate details about local businesses. ‘ How can we, as business manager, give google more information, and the kind of information we want to provide for our customers? Any useful idea or advice about what you are doing?
And more important, how can we get more information from them, what they like or why they chose us mong other options?
one way I've been trying, and it's been available for a long time, is to use google star ratings on google maps and then post schema on my site For Google to see. You know it's worked when you see the data in SERPS. It means you can chose what data you send google
I think the biggest disruption to local search is going to be the roll out of the paid listings in the Google 3-pack.
I think Facebook Places will continue to mature as a platform.
Reviews are still going to be really important. More businesses will start to realize that they must become proactive in obtaining customer reviews for their business.
Thank you for this article, Miriam! Doing a good job of local SEO can be the future of many small businesses. Personally, the subject of the searches by voice worries me a little. It can be a very big change in the way of positioning contents. Thanks for the compilation!
Hi Sergio!
I'm so glad you enjoyed our team effort. I think maybe we need some more articles here on the Moz Blog about voice search to address our community's questions and concerns. Thanks for raising this point.
Hi Miriam,
Another awesome posts, so thank you! There are lots of intriguing positions here and in the comments. I will admit, I was disheartened to see your prediction on diminishing free packs. I suppose this shouldn't come as a surprise (as this is something Google could easily monetize), but this one stings... This "pay to play" approach will certainly hurt the little guys. Thanks again, would love to see a follow-up post on which predictions came true.
Directories, and more specifically reviews will play a large part in 2017. People purchase from businesses they trust, reviews build that trust.
Hey Kevin!
I agree completely that review platforms will continue to enjoy great importance. Anecdotally, I had to have a locksmith come out to my home this week to replace a broken lock. I got into a conversation with him about his local search marketing and he told me how reliant he has become on Yelp. This didn't surprise me, as it was how I found him, and he'd earned a really healthy portion of positive reviews there. He told me he has earned those reviews by always treating his customers well, and I can attest that this was how I was treated. He arrived on time, charged the price he quoted me over the phone, and, as a nice extra, he gave me a free can of lock oil which he said would make my lock last twice as long. That's how you build trust!
Thank you for this useful article Miriam.
I think Google my Business in mobile searches has a good piece of cake in SEO for 2017
do you?
I know people are taking expensive decsions through mobile searches. So any outlet or shopping complex are available in your geo locations then it shows in our mobiles through google searches. But still, I have found that there are some results where another better options are available but still, Google doesn't show appropriate results in many queries. Bots could be manipulated easily in local searches. So I hope Google will work more on their query fetching system in 2017 and we will get more appropriate results.
Hey Faisal!
We're on the same page on this - Google's idea of relevance (based on their algo) does not always match my idea of relevance. I often see very poorly presented businesses far outranking others for reasons you have to really hunt down to even begin to guess at. I'm positive this is something Google wants to improve, so we'll have to stick with them for the long haul, as it's been a work in progress since day 1.
I always try to follow tips from this awesome community to improve my SEO. But, one thing becomes so difficult to me. How to earn links for niche sites in 2017?
Thanks so much for these predictions--they are unique and thoughtfully explained.
I think the notion of "Ethical businesses will thrive" is quite interesting, and touches on the somewhat related topic of online reputation management and its important role, because as was mentioned above, usually a quick Google search can uncover negative posts.
I appreciate the local predictions. Most of these will come true eventually if not in 2017.
Google is and will continue to be the largest company in the world that is safe, and as for the amazon, I think its growth will be reflected more in European countries and the US
This article is spot on. Hyper-local is where everything is trending. In general our clients in 2016 overwhelmingly said, "We like the fact that you are down the road from us. If we have an issue, we can just meet quickly in person." I feel the same about home services, retail, professional services, etc. It makes complete sense that our clients would feel website design and marketing should be local too. Our agency has continually benefited from local SEO over the past several years. I wouldn't be surprised to see this trend continue exponentially..
I have noticed lots of notifications for updating businesses have visited (or searched for anyway) and really believe you prediction on ethical businesses seeing the largest boost. It is too hard for fly-by-night websites to make an overnight presence anymore, and only companies with solid reviews and good customer service will survive. I have seen more requests than ever from clients to manage reviews and helping foster a response procedure. It handy on sites you can also submit contact forms or request quotes from a business.
Predictions coming from those who come we have to take into account the novices to apply to our projects and do things as google likes. If they like google like other search engines
Miriam, I really hope you're right about ethical businesses thriving. That's bothered me since I first showed up on the Internet a couple of decades ago. And even before the Internet, since I'm also a novelist. There are "publishers" and "agents" whose business model relies on customer ignorance, just like there were when I started seeking publication 40 years ago. Information is a beautiful thing.
Hi Miriam, I think google is sticking on user metrics and giving less important for link building. I have tried many different keywords and for some keywords i ranked higher than many sites having more than 10k back-links. What is your suggestion about this?
Hi Sarathbhaskar,
Good question! I do think user metrics are playing an increasingly important role ... in local search, what I'd be focusing on would be clicks-to-call, clicks-for-driving-directions and clicks-to-websites. I'm less confident in saying that user metrics outweigh links as a ranking factor, because that would really depend on the authority of those links. Could a small clothing boutique outrank Macy's because it's earning more user actions? It's possible, but maybe not a common scenario. Thanks for taking the time to read our predictions!
Voice search is super annoying to be around and in my opinion, is an incredibly lazy way of searching. I'm not buying it. Voice Search people are the speaker phone people of 2017.
Like it or not consumers are using it and if Google believes people prefer it we need to take notice.
I'm also concerned that when I tried to post the above I was moderated and told my reply was too short. Is being consise a metric google will also consider?
Hey Mike!
You know, I have these moments working in digital marketing where I say, "Oh my gosh, just how LAZY are we all?" But then I remember that there is seldom anything new under the sun and that convenience has driven commerce for centuries. Voice search is just one new convenience, and it looks to me like it's going to take root. Appreciate hearing a healthy dose of skepticism, though.
According to all the predictions. Especially with point number 3, the voice search. Google has long wanted to move forward on this topic and I think it will put resources to give a boost to this factor.
Super summary. Well written. You can almost confirm all signals for SEO Local. Rand is right, it will be slowed down. Dr. Peter J. Myers rightly notes that will pay more additives (economic justification). George Freitag sees potential in the "laziness" of users and comfortable use. Why write, as you can tell. Britney Muller is right. It seems that it is already happening. So I never neglected Google+, Google My Business, GSC and related products. An important signal and a prediction, I would like to be confirmed, writes Miriam, it is a positive development Ethical Companies. Severe this definition, but as mentioned in the comments, a major role will be played by signals from the user - as reviews and ratings. Of course, these true. Not generated by specialized workers and the company. Anyway, it is worth noting that a fairly large group of people is smarter than the "smart people from false assessments" and recognize what is true and what is artificially generated positive or negative.
#3 is a bold prediction - "Do they have any more of those in my size". Scares me a bit.
I couldn't agree more on voice search and Google business listing predictions. Looking forward to Google voice search and how it will dominate the text search.
Thinking of how one should optimize for Rankbrain algorithm, which is nothing but algorithm google has been working for displaying results for voice search. Any ideas? How one should use keywords in coming future and how to target long tail keywords and positioning of the keywords?
A well written article on Local seo forecast.Hope voice search will be on top and serps will go
I am assuming that these predictions may be true and google will remains dominant as there are several search engines which are not even in the race.