Update: On March 20, Danny Sullivan announced that Google has stopped this test for now. I believe this is an important signal of Google's intent and things to come, but zero-result SERPs are off the table at least temporarily.
On Wednesday, Google launched a large-scale experiment, removing organic results from a small set of searches with definitive answers such as this one for "What time is it in Seattle?":
These SERPs display a Knowledge Card with a "Show all results" button and no additional organic results or SERP features. Danny Sullivan wrote on Twitter that this is currently limited to a small set of answers, including calculators, unit conversions, and some time/date queries. Here's another one, converting yesterday's MozCast temperature ("108 degrees in celsius"):
At first glance, this is a startling development, but it shouldn't be entirely surprising. So, let's get to the hard questions — is this a sign of things to come, and how quickly do we need to adapt?
For today, don't panic
First off, preliminary data suggests that these really are isolated cases. Across the 10,000 searches that MozCast tracks daily, one search (0.01%) currently displays zero results: "1 gigabit to gigabyte." This change is not impacting most high-volume, competitive queries or even the vast majority of results with Knowledge Cards.
Second, we have to face the reality that Knowledge Cards, even paired with organic results, already dramatically impact search user behavior. Thanks to Russ Jones, we've pulled some data from an internal CTR study we're currently working on at Moz. In that study, SERPs with 10 blue links have a roughly 79% organic click-through rate (overall). Add just a Knowledge Card, with no other features, and that drops to 25%. That's a 68% drop-off, a loss of over two-thirds of organic clicks. Google has tested this change and likely found that showing organic links on these particular searches provided very little additional value.
This isn't new (part 1)
I'm going to argue that this change is one that we in the industry should've seen coming, and I'm going to do it in two parts. First, we know that Knowledge Cards and other answers (including Featured Snippets) power SERPs on devices where screen size is at a minimum or non-existent.
Take for example, a search for "Where was Stephen Hawking born?" Even though the answer is definitive (there is one factual answer to this question), Google displays a rich Knowledge Card plus a full set of organic SERPs. On mobile, though, that Knowledge Card dominates results. Here's a full-screen image:
The Knowledge Card extends below the fold and dominates the mobile screen. This assumes I see the SERP at all. Even as I was typing the question, Google tried to give me the answer...
If the basic information is all I need, and if I trust Google as a source for that information, why would I need to even click at this point?
On mobile, I at least have the option to peruse organic results. On Google Home, if I ask the same question ("Where was Stephen Hawking born?"), I get no SERP at all, just the answer:
"Stephen Hawking was born in Oxford, United Kingdom."
Obviously, this is born of necessity on a voice-only device like Google Home, but we get a similarly truncated result with voice searches through Google Assistant. This is the same answer on my phone (the same phone as the previous screenshots), but using voice search instead of text search...
Google's push toward voice UI and mobile-first design means that these considerations sometimes move back up the chain of devices. If the answer is enough for voice and mobile, maybe it's enough for desktop.
This isn't new (part 2)
Over the past couple of years, I've talked a lot about how SERPs have expanded well beyond 10 blue links. What we talk about less is the flip-side, that SERPs are also shrinking. Adding SERP features is, in some cases, a zero-sum game, at the cost of organic results.
Each of the following features take up one organic position:
- Full site-links (each row)
- Image results
- Top Stories
- In-depth articles (3 articles = 1 organic)
- Tweets (carousel)
- Tweets (single)
Across the 10,000 SERPs in our data set, over half (51%) had less than 10 traditional organic results. While very-low counts are rare, over one-fourth of page-one SERPs fell into the range of 5–8 organic results.
While the zero-result SERP is certainly a new and extreme case, the removal of organic results in favor of other features has been happening (and expanding) for quite some time now. SERPs with as few as 3–4 page-one organic results have been appearing in the wild for well over a year.
In some cases, you might not even realize that a result isn't organic. Consider, for example, the following set of results on desktop. Can you spot the In-depth Articles?
On desktop results, there are no visual markers separating In-depth Articles from organic results, even though these results are powered by two different aspects of the algorithm. From the source code markers, we can see that the answer is #2–#5, three results which displace one organic result:
Another example is Twitter results. You've probably seen the Twitter carousel, which is a visually distinct format with three tweets, but have you seen a result like this one (on a search for "cranberry")?
At first glance, it looks organic (except for the Twitter icon), but this result is a vertical result pulled directly from the Twitter data feed. It is not subject to traditional organic optimization and ranking factors.
All of this is to say that organic real estate has been shrinking for quite a while, giving way to vertical results, Knowledge Graph results, and other rich features. Google will continue to experiment, and we can expect that some SERPs will continue to shrink. Where the data suggests that one answer is enough, we may only see one answer, at the cost of organic results.
Search intent vs. opportunity
It's easy to let our imaginations run wild, but we have to consider intent. The vast majority of searches are never going to have one definitive answer, and some queries aren't even questions, in the traditional sense.
From an SEO and content standpoint, I think we have to expand our idea of informational search intent (vs. transactional or navigational, using the classic model). Some questions are factual, and can be answered by the ever-expanding Knowledge Graph. As of today, a search like "When is Pi Day?" still shows organic results, but the Knowledge Card gives us a definitive answer...
Here, organic opportunity is very limited. Think of this as a "closed informational" search.
On the other hand, open-ended questions still rely very much on a variety of answers, even when Google tries to choose one of those answers. Consider the search "What is the best pie?", which returns the following Featured Snippet (a hybrid of organic result and answer box)...
No one answer will ever suffice for this question. Even the author of this post had the decency to say "Go ahead and let me have it in the comments," knowing the disagreement would soon flow like cherry filling.
Think of these searches as "open informational" searches. Even if we have to compete for the Featured Snippet (especially on voice results), there will be organic/SEO opportunity here for the foreseeable future.
Ultimately, we have to adapt, and we have to get smarter about the searchers we target. Where Google can answer a question, they will try to answer that question, and if organic results add no measurable value (regardless of whether you agree with how Google measures value), they will continue to shrink.
Want to hear more discussion about the zero-results SERP? Check out the podcast episode here on MozPod!
In 2005 Google published the post:
Just the Facts, Fast.
It may have taken 12 years for that to come to fruition, but it is now "Only the Facts, Fast."
I suspect that Google will be working to find ways to make sure that these answers are more accurate, using things such as Knowledge-based Trust. I'm envisioning that Google will start relying upon structured data more, such as the Semantics of tables, and Schema markup.
Given that the Internet of Things will likely use devices with limited screenroom such as Cars and Fridges, short answers may be suited to what will be available on many web connected devices. That is part of a future that we should see coming.
I'm curious if/when/how (probably just when/how) Google will start to integrated index-based answers (currently, Featured Snippets and PAAs) into the Knowledge Graph. They have to find automated ways to better vet those answers (as you said), and, as they do, they'll have more confidence to make those answers authoritative and permanent. The higher the confidence, the more likely we'll see less answers.
I should be coming out with a post that may address some of those issues in the very near future, because human curation may provide some better results, and Google did that with some health related answerbox answers, but automating that process and providing high quality answers is a challenge.Answering things such as "what time is it." is easy, and facts involving attributes such as "How tall is Abraham Lincoln" isn't something people want to build business models upon. But, Google is starting to explore building ontologies from query streams as described in their paper Biperpedia: An Ontology for Search Applications. Such an ontology would be a much better source of answers, including very long tail ones, to many questions. It's a good way to automate that process.
Right -- you can't take the Medical Knowledge Panel approach to the whole web. It just doesn't scale. The things that are clean/curated don't scale, and the things that scale are messy/imprecise, and Google has to find a bridge.
Couldn’t be considered the move of extending the length of meta description a first step to a serp composed only by featured snippet
I guess folks from Time magazine aren't too happy about it
Indeed! I was gobsmacked to see Google showing just the time for the keyword "time" when it could be people who are searching for Time Magazine - just goes to show that Google haven't got this perfect just yet. (That said, I'm surprised Time Magazine haven't reacted by quickly doing an AdWords exact match campaign for just [time] in order to reclaim clicks in the meantime, given that AdWords still show for some of these affected queries (e.g. "date in london") - although it'd probably be crazy expensive...!)
Not sure how this is going to affect other searches. It could only affect these specific (Time) and (About Person) searches. Don't see how they would only leave 1 result if you were searching for a product or for a local business. An example: Plumber near me, or Plumbers London. It would make no sense to show only 1 result.
Time sites could suffer a bit but only for these specific searches, but then again there are so many other keywords they can target and still get traffic.
I just typed "London Miami Time" and got this: https://prntscr.com/is9oq2
Along with other search results. The other example above removed other websites but there is an option to see other results as well. So my guess is, this will only work for obvious searches.
We'll see how it goes. Let me know what you think?
I totally agree with you, this way of displaying search results can only be successful if people are only looking for 1 exact answer to their question. when there are multiple possibilities for a search term google must have to show multiple search results to keep the user experience high.
I think it is entirely reasonable that Google wants to answer specific questions that have one specific, correct answer, with a single response. Yes, organic SERPs will shrink, but let's think through this: in all likelihood, a searcher of this type is unlikely to want to search through organic results to find their answer. In fact, this searcher would probably bounce immediately upon visiting one of the organic SERPs.
Ultimately, this change will squeeze out less-skilled SEOs and increase searcher satisfaction.
A proper slap on the wrist that both SEO strategists and content creators should focus on intent first and foremost.
Internal site architecture should become more important too. How do you show things that are otherwise hidden in Google?
I wrote a post yesterday (for a small, location specific niche website of mine) listing the zip codes, area codes, emergency numbers and customs regulations. I guess such articles will be a waste of time if we want to pursue organic traffic, but they are nonetheless needed from an internal-site structure perspective. For if website owners start to worry less about this sort of data, create and link to it, much of the ecosystem will suffer.
I wonder how and if this might affect fresh queries.
Interesting example, because zip code and area code sites used to be pretty big, and Google has started displacing them as well. Here's a zip code example with a prominent carousel:
https://www.google.com/search?q=zip+codes+in+chica...
Is this an example of Google moving towards artificial intelligence?
While a brutal wake up call for many, this is good. Big takeaways for me, and I appreciate you calling it out directly, was making sure we as SEOs really start to have those discussions surrounding intent and intent by query and answer.
Closed Informational vs. Open query types. Closed Informational being those that simply put, are easier for Google to deliver you with the answer therefore why is there any reason at all for a user to go elsewhere.
Open Informational on the other hand totally plays into the concept of multifaceted featured snippets. I'm anxious to see how that portion evolves along with the closed informational results and searches.
I just made that whole "open informational" vs. "closed informational" thing up over the weekend, so now I'm trying to figure out what it actually means.
It's definitely the first time I've heard those terms used! Lol I was actually thinking about it while reading but didn't want to say anything.
Sounds like the concept of open answers and closed answers that attorneys learn about when learning how to cross examine people on a witness stand. You can ask people yes or no questions, which would be closed answers, or you could ask them, "what happened next," in which case you never quite know what they might say, and that isn't something you want on cross examination. :)
@Bill -- I like this. I'm going to claim this is what I meant all along.
As I said on Twitter earlier: Maybe Google Search should just rebrand itself to Google Found? "No need to search for it people, here is your answer."
These are exciting times to be an SEO, no doubt!
I'm still waiting for the day Google decides to hit the reset button and everyone starts at ZERO :)
That should be fun
Interesting stuff Dr. Pete! I heard talk of this on social media but am glad you wrote a article on it. Very informative and I am definitely curious to see which "zero-result serps" continue to show in the future.
I don't think this will change the SEO game..
Yea same here, don't think this will be implemented on local searches and product searches. Otherwise they'd be making a monopoly which is unlikely to work.
I feel sorry for the people who were in the serps for such questions with exact answers but I don't think many people used the full serps for such calculator tools or exact answers. 100 fahrenheit is just 37 celcius whether it is on the first website or the second one. From a used-experience standpoint I think it's a good thing what google did.
It is a bit unnerving. But then again, I've felt that way for a few years now, since 2004 I've been so reliant on Google for my only source of income to run my only business (self employed), I'm really looking to do something else now but it's all I know how to do. I don't recommend this way of life to anyone, especially if you're only income is from one source and that's online. I'm sick of being at the mercy of this algorithm. My life is dependant on it. At first it was kind of fun and I was doing great for about 10 years, the novelty wore off. Now it's just a huge stress to keep up with and you never know when the next big change will affect you. My competitors are beating me in all areas now and I don't have the budget that they obviously do. Despite being the better site (and oldest domain) for most of my keywords I'm slowly slipping off page 1 and the future is not looking good (again). I'm seriously considering a complete change of career, if anything just to save my mental health. I don't like where all this is going. The little guys who have been there from the start are being pushed off the web basically. If you have the money or time to put into it you might be ok but it's still a gamble everyday.
People will have less choice, they want the best but they don't want to do any research or thinking and they want it NOW. We hand our lives over to an algorithm to decide our fate. Everybody who matters is happy so what's the problem? Problem is it's never going to work for small business owners, the big will take over, I've already seen it with Etsy taking up most of the top results for my keywords and pushing all us small woodcraft guys off the page. Then you click their link and it's totally not what I was looking for anyway. So why does the algorithm think that a dead end link to Etsy is better than directing people to my site? Because the algorithm is to be believed and trusted. You can waste hours reading Moz, spend thousands on SEO, stress yourself out looking at graphs to try and keep up. Or you can go do something else. I know which way I'm leaning.
Big G has been changing it's game since the beginning of time (or so :) and we just need to adapt (© evolution). Sometimes it feels like riding a tiger though. Great and very informative article!
I mean it is a tad bit unnerving... not to mention some interesting mobile results I've seen... THAT truly scares me and I haven't personally seen enough talk on it... In my humble experience, sometimes I'll search and only get like 5 organic results and 3-4 paid ads, and a (SEE MORE) results button.
I actually agree with @Nickey up there despite not being a legal professional. Having something so isoloated as time really is not going to be anything impactful for us... hopefully... in the case it is that hyperspecific, okay we are kind of looking at a monopoly... or at the least a new search engine for us to work on.
The problem is not in the new results, but in those that will come in the future. What new surprises will Google bring us?
RIP time and date websites.
Thanks for sharing.
What are time and date websites?
For content sites is a knock. Loss of organic traffic if it is a short query, now, if it is a query that requires more information if it benefits. It depends on the search or topic.
Although as a user, I think it's a good idea, not so much for content creators in some cases.
I think, Zero SERPs Result helpful for Users & New Search Engine Optimization technique for SEO experts.
time and date websites will suffer huge loss from this update
I think it's worth noting that these sites suffered huge losses as soon as the answer boxes rolled out. I'm not sure how much is left for them to lose. What it should be is a wake-up call for the rest of us. If your data is easy to get and repackage, you're in danger.
I'd say all sites whose business model is based on offering factual information will suffer huge losses in the long run.
Google is becoming smart enough to answer "simple" queries right then and there in the SERP's, without having to send the user to a separate website. We're evenhelping them do this by implementing structured data like crazy :) Oh the irony...
I think the time/date conversion is the next one on the way out
Amazing post Pete! I agree that when I get a direct answer from Google, it's hard not to trust it. After all, their accuracy rating is pretty high. Luckily none of my websites fall into factual subjects yet. But I can see the need to adapt.
Thanks for the read!
This post is going to get lots of reactions!
I think this adds even more to your last post "Google's Walled Garden: Are We Being Pushed Out of Our Own Digital Backyards?".
Please let your next article be a good news for SEOs :P
I'm feeling lucky.
All good.
Just an update; the Zero Result SERPs test has now been completed and Google have reverted to showing results on the SERPs again. This has possibly been reverted due to the backlash from the SEO community.
Danny Sullivan from Google claims the zero results SERPs have been proven to shave as much as 0.5 seconds of SERP load speed.
This might effect those sites who was ranking on the the top 10 and Google change means loss of website ranking and Traffic and Time.
Makes me wonder about a day when Google will be limiting answers for a lot of searches and if a time will come when another method of search becomes more popular because it focuses of more choices, not fewer. Just something to think about in a world where it seems like people increasingly want more options for everything. Also zero result searches give Google a lot of power because even if Google is wrong, people will use that one answer as the correct one because Google says so! Great article that makes the little gray cells work.
It will change current website rankings and therefore traffic to said websites, but if you are searching for something specific and google search does not come up with the goods without looking over lots of pages - maybe its time to give bing a try.
It is definately evolving...one day it will be like talking a human that knows all the answers :)
serps refers to the average position in which your website appeared for that search. The positions in the SERPs are dynamic and may vary according to the users' location, their language, the devices they use or their interests. Your website may appear in 2nd place for a specific search if it is done from Madrid, but it may appear the 5th if that same search is done from Barcelona or in 10th place if it is done from Buenos Aires.
Could google have stopped the zero result serps test because the collected the data they require to make a decision and can we expect it to return in a more complete form rather than an experiment? Does anybody else think google should differentiate areas in serps thats are experiments from non-experiments something like ads and organic results?
Hello Peter, this is such a nice piece of information. After reading I have some question. May be it's not cleared to me.
1) I searched for "Where was Stephen Hawking born?" and got Google Card+Organic Ranking?
2) I never came across such result. Is it possible for me to check such results?
Thanks in advance.
What is the purpose of that?
It's a pretty bold, ballsy stance - essentially saying "this is 100% right, don't bother looking further." ...Which is fine, if it is right. A lot of big sites screw up time-zones - especially when it comes to daylight savings. I was using Meetup.com the other day and configured something to start showing from 9am UK time, but it actually started showing at 10am UK time...
This might just be me, but for the time being, I'm gonna keep clicking 'Show all results >' and checking at least one other result to verify that it's correct until I know for certain that Google is definitely 100% right about it. Which brings up the point: why bother hiding other results, when the whole point of Google is to show answers from a variety of sources (even if they all say the same thing)...? I'd rather see 10 results all saying the same thing 10 times than see 1 result that could potentially (however unlikely) be wrong...
I freaked out a little when I read this post at first, but it was just a knee-jerk reaction :) Interesting times ahead! And yeah we totally should've seen this coming.
Zero result in serps what next a black hole?
These changes seam to being forced by the changes in the information devices we have available to us and Google is trying to keep up
Nice shout out to Prof Stephen Hawkins, Dr Pete. :-)
Stephen Hawkings joke to comedian Dara O Brian "What is a black hole? I don't know what is a black hole, its what you get in a Black sock". RIP Prof Stephen Hawkings 1942 -2018.
intersteting to read....My favorite sites to use for extra money are almost always going to be the ones that don't make me wait long to get paid that is workforawlife, to know more go alladswork ,and you can get more information about this after going its facebook page ,
Is there any specific tool to search ‘small set of terms’ using root keyword?
This is quite interesting read this week. This might effect those sites who was ranking on the the top 10 and due to this, They are going to loose their organic.
Very courious post!
I'm anxious to see where the new changes in Google's results are going. A priori, they will facilitate searches for users, however, in my opinion, they may leave good content out of the game. Imagine that someone asks about cheese cake recipe and Google shows a specific result. There are thousands of cheesecake recipes and we are leaving them out. The ideal is to keep the consultations closed for what is strictly necessary. The time and little else.
For more content a good idea would be to enable a voting system type Yahoo Questions to raise the most valued.
Thanks for this post Dr. Peter ;)
While I agree with your comment that Google "may leave good content out of the game," we should consider the likelihood that RankBrain has already figured the CTR for other results and discarded them. And while enabling voting ensures responses, it doesn't necessarily follow that such an option in SERPs would "raise the most valued".
Our work should remain focused on providing relevant, conversion-ready content, right from the SERPs.
I think that this is rather good news (for now at least). Closed informational queries don't seem to be good opportunities to build relationships anyways. By design more of our attention will be directed at thorough, engaging content.
I would like to know if exist a tool to know the best keyword to my company and how must i do to optimizate it
I think, Zero SERPs Result will start a new era in seo industry.
Ok, was going to write something then I went back to read it again and now I just want pie. We don't have it down here in Australia, not like the ones in USA, reading this just makes me want to walk into that diner on twin peaks, sit down with a black coffee (if I'm still allowed to call it that, my apologies if I'm not) and devour everything they have on offer up on that counter top.
Google Algo change means loss of website ranking and Traffic and Time
Just as we are confident in keeping up with all of googles way of SERPS they change something else. I think that is the hardest part of SEO'ing.
Thanks again Peter! Looking forward to more articles.
Thanks for this great update! The keywords and phrases we target are vital to success! Just because there’s volume, doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll be easy to convert!
Thanks again! Looking forward to more articles
Thanks for the post Dr. Peter. It seems like Google is trying to keep the users in their serps as long it can. and that means less time in our sites :-(
Interesting read. However we all know that Google SERPs have continued to evolve with time. Ever since the last few years Google has been including other types of results like videos, images, questions, carousels, local results, etc. and reducing the main organic listings in some cases to less than 10.
There was an interesting article on this called Google Mega-SERP way back in Oct 2013.
Moz also displays something called opportunity in their keyword tool to let SEO's know about the number of search results displayed on the first page of search.
Just FYI -- I wrote the Mega-SERP article ;)
lol (sorry, I could not resist it
Not sure how this is going to affect other searches. It could only affect these specific (Time) and (About Person) searches.
Hmmmm... I wonder if this is just another way for Google to force us webmaster schmucks to rely on paid PPC advertising rather than on our seo efforts? I used to love Google. I remember the search landscape back in early 2000's where we had MSN and Yahoo! Do you remember those days with all the clutter?
Google comes along and just allows the user to focus on search. Now it is like they have become Big Brother. They fire people for not thinking the way they do or act the way they deem appropriate. Good grief! Well, this is the way of things to come. Crappy.
Daniel T.
Nanaimo, BC
Google is looking to control the flow if information even a little bit more then they already do. Great read Peter, thanks.