UPDATE: I clarified below that it is the winners of the 4 rounds that won, not just people who chose the winning weapon.
Monday morning SEOmoz sent an e-mail to all PRO members asking them if they would be willing to beta test our awesomely big and useful tool. I only had enough resources to run the test with 300 people so I tried to come up with a solution to narrow down the list that was both fun and fair. If the e-mail recipients were interested, they were asked to fill out a form with their name, SEOmoz account e-mail, website and their choice of either rock, paper or scissors (RPS). We had about 1000 people fill out the form (Thank You!) and I ran the data through a nifty simulator I hacked together.
The entries were interestingly unequal:
To run the simulator, I put all the entries in a spreadsheet and sorted them by weapon of choice. I then removed anyone who either did not include a weapon or chose a non-applicable item (Atomic Bomb, Shark with Laser, Dynamite, Sushi, Rand, etc.). Next, I randomized the list, cut it in half and faced everyone against another player.
I then abused the formula line by adding the rules of game.
=IF(AND(C2="Paper",G2="Paper"), "Tie",
IF(AND(C2="Rock",G2="Rock"), "Tie",
IF(AND(C2="Scissors",G2="Scissors"), "Tie",
IF(AND(C2="Paper",G2="Rock"), "Left",
IF(AND(C2="Scissors",G2="Paper"), "Left",
IF(AND(C2="Rock",G2="Scissors"), "Left",
IF(AND(C2="Rock",G2="Paper"), "Right",
IF(AND(C2="Paper",G2="Scissors"), "Right",
IF(AND(C2="Scissors",G2="Rock"), "Right", "WTF?"
)))))))))
(Left and Right indicate which side of the spreadsheet the winner was on.)
Afterward, I removed the losers, re-randomized the list, cut it in half and lined up every player with an opponent. It took 4 rounds.
Although there was a clear majority weapon victory, it is the winners of the four rounds that will become beta testers, most of which chose paper.
The winners will be alerted via e-mail in the coming days. Thanks to everyone who played!
P.S. Sometimes, I do actual work here at the moz. I have a 'real' post coming out later this week. ;-)
Hah ... funny stuff.
I found this interesting article on the personalities of the three throws.
In a nutshell:
Seeing as SEOmoz appeals to people with above average intelligence interested in the written word (a.k.a paper), I think it only makes sense that paper won. What if you conducted this test on a blog for Ultimate Fighting?
Hmmm, I fancy a Friday challenge (as I don't have much to do on a Friday) Ultimate fighting blog it is
I see in the spreadsheet that Fred Flintstone chose paper. I'm surprised he didn't choose rock.
The best part of this whole process is the WTF? response. I SO want to put this in my global variables somewhere.
i completely forgot about "shark with lasers"
that would win all.
What about ill tempered seabass?
We win without lasers. They're just for show.
:)
I like Steph Woods' analysis.
Paper rocks! Such a bad pun....
Someone actually used Rand as a weapon? Nice!
Awesome work on the whole thing though, way to be fair and cool at the same time!
You are such a nerd.
LOL
Not going to deny it. I think other nerds would agree with me, being a nerd is a great thing to be with the way technology is going.
Since this post is kind of non-seo related I'll share something non-seo related.
I can kick Will's ass at rock-paper-scissors (commonly called paper-scissors-stone in the UK). Fact.
That was all.
Yes, that thumbs-down was from me.
That's all.
You name the time, place and stakes. Happy to film it and put it on youtube.
As an ex betting and gaming employee I'm happy to run a book on the event :)
Heheh, I'd love to see that! :-D I'm glad I picked paper!
But wait... scissors cuts paper... and rock beats scissors... and paper covers rock...
oh this is so confusing.
So who gets into the beta, everyone who chose paper or the people that won all 4 rounds?
It is the winners of the 4th round. Not necessarily anyone who chose paper (although it does slant that way).
Everyone knows paper beat rocks.
interesting work on RSP! i'll try to exam it on my own to know what is the best weapon now.
I thought about giving a serious answer for about 3 seconds when I signed up for the beta test. Too bad I have the impulse control of a redbull drinking 6 year old with ADHD.............. I chose "hot lava"
damn. I'm disappointed - what happened to first come first served? Nice time and effort though into it but was kinda looking forward to it, particularly as a pro member :(
I don't think they ever said first come, first served.
Sorry UKism... I meant why wasn't it first come first served :)
There was actually a slight error with the form that caused it to be...well...non-functional for the first ~15 minutes after the email went out, so technically the first 300 or so people to come, weren't able to submit themselves right away.
Good to know you Americans play with rocks, scissors and papers only ... the Germans have a "well" that wins if the opponent chose scissors or rock and loses to paper ... but that's just grotesque :-)
Ya know, there is a method to play this game and win most every time, and there is a reason skilled people pick rock first... scissors will most often lose on the opening throw. A bit of poker strategy, but alas I don't get to participate in this test...
I am counting ravens flying by the northern sky!
Mind giving us that excel file somewhere in the pro-member area? I would love to see it!
I can if I scrub all of the personal information. I don't want to disrespect anyone. Although that would just leave a big list of the rock, paper scissors spelled in different ways. Still interested?
Would just be fun to see how it works! Maybe I can use it myself in the future.. :)
That is one hell of a beta selection process. If this is any indication of the detail that went into "Carhole", then I can't wait.
God damn. Doing this kind of thing would be likely to reduce me to a steaming pile of drooling cow dung.... with a vacant look.
Thanks for explaining it.... I need a bloody mary.
Woo Hoo! Paper!
So I guess it's true, most people do throw rock first, and by the way, nice forumla usage Danny. For the record I would have gone paper.
That was my conclusion too until I looked at the before and after.
it wasn't so much that more people picked rock (39%) over paper (37%). Paper won because realitvely few people picked scissors.
Probably only becasue rock and paper are easier to type out...
The game theory is that people want to start with a strong move and rock seems the most powerful of the 3.
The high result for paper in this specific instance could come from those players (us) who knew about the bias.
I actually thought about choosing scissors are a 3rd-level-thinking strategy, glad I didn't and just chose paper!
The pie chart, listing to port, as it is, appears to show a much stronger bias for rock than trhere actually is.
Scissors are for sissies.
i love this, its fantastic.
I'm happy to say that I am one of the paper winners. Nearly always win with it
so incredibly cool! your ingenuity is inspiring, you have taken the art of choicemaking to new heights
Nice graph! What did you use as a charting tool?
Apple's Numbers. Its not quite as functional as excel but it sure is purdy.
Awesome selection process. On a totally different point - what graph software do you use?
Apple's Numbers, he replied that a couple posts above :)
Morning blindness! Sorry
i second his request, what graph software ?