Intuit recently authored a report on the state of US businesses in 2017 - Future of Small Business Report - in which they suggest that by 2017, the number of unique businesses will triple. SmallBusinessHub pointed me to this article (via Reddit) and noted some very interesting takeaways:
The main theme of the report was that we are in the midst of an economic revolution that started in the 1980's when 80% of American workers were at companies with greater than 1000 employees to today where 40% of American workers are at companies with greater than 1000 employees to some percentage far less than that 10 years from now.
Another major contributor to the decentralization of business is that small/new businesses no longer need to rely on huge sales organizations to "find" customers. Search engines make every niche market more "efficient" enabling smaller businesses to be "found" by the right customers who are shopping in a newly efficient niche. I believe search engine optimization further lowers the transaction costs between companies making the decision to outsource versus hire more attractive and making the barrier to starting a business lower which should lead to a further decentralization of business.
If you believe in their microeconomic theories about the marketplace shift, you've got to be pretty happy that you've chosen to be involved in the world of Internet marketing on any level. The very fact that you're reading SEOmoz right now points to signs that you'll benefit, financially and in life-quality from business you undertake online. In keeping with this theme, I'd like to carry out these expectations to a logical conclusion:
- The web will become massively more populated
The numbers of search queries, websites, and business transactions conducted online will continue to skyrocket to unprecedented levels. We'll almost certainly see another large spike in adoption of the web, similar to the dot-com boom - the growth we're seeing now is large, but it's gradual. I believe that in a few years, there will be massive acceleration in that growth. - Competition will increase dramatically
If you think it's tough right now to rank for orange county mortgage, just wait until 2017. Both the number of businesses and the number of consumers with demand will ensure that the value of ranking well in the search engines (or whatever new method of retrieval on demand evolves over time). - Opportunity is here now
If you're considering leaving your job to pursue web work fulltime, start your own business or leverage the web for your existing company, the trends suggest now would be a good time to make that decision. Granted, you'll often have to give up some income and possibly a lot of security, but the rewards on a macro-level should be tremendous, and for those who prove themselves to earn a higher than average return, financial freedom awaits. - If History is any measure, several sectors will boom
Domain names, web services, transaction systems and online marketing would appear to all be large winners in the online economy's continued growth.
If this seems like knowledge you already have and didn't need to read about, just consider that if the data pointed another direction - that trending was flowing back to the large organizations - the above statements would be reversed almost entirely. This is one of those posts to help re-assure you about the value of online content, and, hopefully, light a fire inside to help you realize the value of getting into this game as quickly as possible.
One of the biggest things still untapped is video. Although Youtube, and the 100+ other video distribution sites are going strong most of their content is still taken (or stolen more accurately) from traditional broadcasting sources. The average website contains almost all it's information in text. I see a new internet where the AVERAGE large website contains at least 25% to 50% of it's information in video / audio content. Some of the fore-runners and technology enthusiasts are ahead of the market, I see seoMoz is experimenting with adding video segments to their blog, but still most of their quality information is in text form. Video is a huge revolution just waiting to take over. You should definitely try to get a peace of the market share now, as television advertising dollars slowly start to dwindle, expect thousands maybe millions of videos to be produced for the web only, and they'll be complete with high production value and potentially interactive content. The "new web" is going to be really cool!
Time for my call to action: PLEASE thumbs up any of comments if you took the time to read them. Thanks!!!
Actually, I imagine the growth will be beyond anything most of could even fathom.
The whole mobile market is just waiting to take off, which will only further fuel the greater market overall.
Search competition will certainly be more competitive, but it will also be interesting to see how users overall adapt, as web and search savviness increases.... we've already been witnessing the average query length increase from single word, to two words, and moving to 3-4 words.
And hopefully, as the newness continues to wear off and more businesses begin to realize that sheer traffic isn't nearly as important as targeted traffic, there will be added focus on intelligent query targeting, really identifying those "needs-based" searches.
I imagine there will be more distinction in the search stage... are they looking for information or looking to buy. This will probably become a much more conscious approach.
As business size continues to shrink and the web connections continue to grow, I can almost imagine where more and more businesses outsource everything but their core product or service. Why not tap into the efficincies of specialists to get the best service, while freeing yourself from all of the backroom details.
Couldn't agree more identity. Just like 5 years ago when we had no clue that we'd go through a Social News and Video Sharing revolution. Who knows what the future holds.
I also agree with mobile. As much as I hate to blow in the sails of Apple Hype, I have to say I was very impressed with the browser they are offering. I see Samsung coming out with a phone that has similar features. And this is just the start.
Mix that with the huge wave of local search that is waiting to crash down on us and I'd say that we're going to be in a whole different world.
Rand--I appreciate the optimism and encouragement that you conveyed. I have run into so many people that have said "I have this idea...but". We're a nation founded on opportunity and there is a conscious wakening of new entrepreneurs that are just arriving at the scene. I also know a lot of people rely on affiliate marketing, SEO, and AdSense for supplemental incomes that weren't even imaginable 10 years ago.
This sounds like Rand is saying that I made the right move by handing in my notice at the large multi-national to join the young search agency!
Oh yes - and couple that with GPS, local (as mentioned already) & personalised search and all our jobs are about to get a whole lot harder (and interesting of course!)
This analysis does bode well for our job security and future growth. However, I think that we all need to focus on thinking about how our skills are applicable to other professions. For instance, SEO requires a lot of writing, and good writing is beneficial in virtually any job. If we take this kind of approach to developing our skills, then we will be fine, even if search does wane.
Solomon:
I don't know, I kind of enjoy the fact that most people don't understand what I do for a living. When SEO becomes totally mainstream, this is going to feel a lot more like a 'regular old job' :)
Collieman:
I think the trend (your b. point) is already here.
Specialized portals will always be smaller and offer less traffic, but I'd rather get 100 rabid visitors from some small niche portal hitting my clients page than another 5k somewhat qualified Google (or yahoo/msn) searchers.
And I don't think it is entirely related to the 'Volume of searchable information'. Realistically, who cares if there are 1 or 2 billion sites on your preferred topic? Anything over a few hundred is the same... Lots, and that's generally how most Internet Newbies look at it.
It just has a lot more to do with community. Go where the uninitiated, internet-unsavvy crowd goes to find their information...
if that happens to be Google, Great!
But if it's Joe-Bob's Towel Emporium, then so be it.
:)
Also, you mention Foreign Language content and I have to say... SEO's had better brush up on their Chinese! It won't be long before Chinese is the most common language online.
The idea that one can prosper just by providing competent, personal web services is exciting and liberating. One can stake his/her claim on a small piece of the industry from the comforts of a home office while offering flexibility and personalization to a handful of clients. With two or three quality clients you could easily have all the work you could handle and earn much more than in a large corporate environment. And, better yet, when I want to spend some time with my girlfriend in Hawaii, I just go. I am in the game, and I love it.
The point about opportunity I think is a key one to underline.
At the moment I keep stopping, looking around, and realising that I'm not pushing enough on exploiting opportunities I can see now, because I'm not goal-orientated enough.
Something to correct. :)
You hit the nail right on the head with that statement. But, "It's never to late to procrastinate!"
Then again, I'm not the kind of person who likes to exploit things to get an advantage...all those MFA sites are exploiting a system and make for a terrible user experience. Then there are the so-called SEOs who prey on and exploit people but don't actually provide a service that give us all such a bad rap.
I got a letter at the office you guys should see. They claim they are from some sort of Internet Bureau providing essential SEO services - and it's made to be sent right off to the accounts payable department. I hate taking on clients who have been burned in the past because they don't trust you. After a few months they finally see the light, but the initial steps are unnecessarily difficult....
It makes perfect sense. It gets easier and easier to start a company, and you can see the trend is moving back toward small business, especially with all the technology we have to stay connected. Corporate America is getting more and more competition from small business.
The trend toward video is undeniable. It will continue to grow.
However, from an information gathering perspective, text is more effecient for the consumer. Consider the 20 minutes you may spend watching a television news cast compared with a newspaper or reading online. You will have less information after "watching" than after reading.
Of course, the exceptions are the subjects that are more effectively shown than explained.
Unfortunately, I think that the growth of video will be supported by pure laziness. "Hey, I can just sit here and learn."
The talented entrepreunuers that can help small business folks produce high quality video (music, graphics, editing etc.) will be making money for years to come. Another growth segment to watch.
In some ways marketing competition may drive the web to start looking a lot more like it did 10 years ago. Imagine more web rings and community niche sites. Groups of small website owners and business owners may group to together to create more value and have an easier time competiting. It's going to be an exciting time to be in search marketing.
In fact the mobile market it's now a reality, but from my point of view everything aims to the web, now you can see more people with cell phones, but they are surfing or emailing.
The competition certainly goings to grow now it's easier to start a business in Internet than ever and thats why I think that SEO/SEM goings to be profitable.It's true that the querys are now about 3 or four words, and I think that they can be bigger but always goings to the local search.
This is definitely a feel good article. Just a few points:-
a. With the growth being forecast the relatively small share
of the market enjoyed by Googles competitors will become increasingly attractive.
b. Do you think that there will be a trend towards more vertical
integration? If the volume of searchable information continues to
grow will we start to see consumers clustering around portals
which specialise in the area or values which they subscribe to?
The growth which will come from foreign language content alone might start to fragment the search world.
c. Education becomes even more important. Established sites like SEOMOZ will be ideally placed to offer support, and that is valuable.
I think they'll be a lot more of everything including verticals and community sites. I would predict they'll grow at a blistering rate, especially with the ease and wide stream availability of content management systems and the slow shift towards social media sites and blogs.
It may "feel" like th whole world is using rss, but they're not. More and more, the start page for the internet is going to become a persons feedreader as RSS is going mainstream! Website owners who are able to effectivley convert visitors into subscribers will be golden. I expect rapid content production - publisher based website models to continue to rank well and be better aimed at picking up longterm traffic as the world starts using rss more and more.
I don't know that they are going to get any more difficule Ciaran... but definately more interesting.
I think one of the few changes in SEO (given that it is a young industry and 'change' is expected) is the entry bar is going to go up for all newbies trying to get into the game.
It's good to see this. I like the idea of people going to work for themselves in their own specialized business. The lower the barrier to entry for a business the more unique a product can become, fulfilling all niches.
My favorite part of this job is when a small "ma and pa" client calls and asks to get less traffic because they can't keep up with orders. This might sound like gloating, but I recently heard from one of my clients that I helped triple his business for Christmas and he is fighting to keep up with orders for Valentines - where he used to see 20 orders a day he is now up to 75+. It's a very satisfying feeling to help the little guy survive and stay afloat. When you get to hear the excitement in the voice of a small business owner who is overwhelmed with orders but nonetheless happy - it just makes my day.
Great point. Personally, that is one of the things that has excited me about the industry and one of the key things that drives my business.
Sure it would be great to play a part in some big, globally recognized company's business...
but nothing beats helping out the guy who really appreciates it and for who the results actually and directly meant a difference in their lives.
I think an entry barrier for a business will still be there. It will just shift from a tangible one (equipment, property, money and such) to more abstract ones, like the ability to get noticed in a crowded market. I guess that's more good news for SEOs.
I agree with you, eSherpa. As the Internet has allowed more people to conduct business on-line, it has changed the skills that are needed. For better or worse, the person or organization that has the best ability to stand out will do well -- whether they are the "best" or not.
I'm glad to hear this :)
Great post Rand
I like to call it "The trikle Down Effect" - provided that these theories remain unchanged but verticals grow under the decentralization concept, the Seo sector is in line for inevitable growth.
A more firm or impressed realization of the value that preceeds internet marketing ( search and any other form of visibilty that may evolve) by businesses coupled with supporting growth of decentralization in our economy, equals a pretty secured business model for Search or any other form of internet visibilty marketering.
This is really good post with great content!
It is another reminder to me that I need to continue to work torwards accomplishing the goals I have set before the whole market really starts to boom.
Search Engine Optimization or Marketing is definitley going to increase as it becomes part of the regular vocabulary of small business owners outside of the technical and geek savy professions. I'm looking forward to the day where the average person on the street actually knows what the term Search Engine Optimizatin or Search Engine Marketing actually means. Since I'm on the computer everyday, most of the day it's easy to forget just how far behind many business owners and individuals are to the technology growth curve. I run into lots of people who have never used social media before and don't understand basic internet marketing terminology. It's incredible! With more competition and more businesses moving line, I expect SEO and SEM will continue to grow and become even more mainstream. Right now it's a bit of a cottage industry don't you think?
If the average joe knows what we do, then it will make it much easier for us to market ourselves to small businesses and the general public as important Internet consultants. However, until then we must still struggle to describe what we do...