Yesterday morning, we woke up to a historically massive temperature spike on MozCast, after an unusually quiet weekend. The 10-day weather looked like this:
That's 101.8°F, one of the hottest verified days on record, second only to a series of unconfirmed spikes in June of 2013. For reference, the first Penguin update clocked in at 93.1°.
Unfortunately, trying to determine how the algorithm changed from looking at individual keywords (even thousands of them) is more art than science, and even the art is more often Ms. Johnson's Kindergarten class than Picasso. Sometimes, though, we catch a break and spot something.
The First Clue: HTTPS
When you watch enough SERPs, you start to realize that change is normal. So, the trick is to find the queries that changed a lot on the day in question but are historically quiet. Looking at a few of these, I noticed some apparent shake-ups in HTTP vs. HTTPS (secure) URLs. So, the question becomes: are these anecdotes, or do they represent a pattern?
I dove in and looked at how many URLs for our 10,000 page-1 SERPs were HTTPS over the past few days, and I saw this:
On the morning of June 17, HTTPS URLs on page 1 jumped from 16.9% to 18.4% (a 9.9% day-over-day increase), after trending up for a few days. This represents the total real-estate occupied by HTTPS URLs, but how did rankings fare? Here are the average rankings across all HTTPS results:
HTTPS URLs also seem to have gotten a rankings boost – dropping (with "dropping" being a positive thing) from an average of 2.96 to 2.79 in the space of 24 hours.
Seems pretty convincing, right? Here's the problem: rankings don't just change because Google changes the algorithm. We are, collectively, changing the web every minute of the day. Often, those changes are just background noise (and there's a lot of noise), but sometimes a giant awakens.
The Second Clue: Wikipedia
Anecdotally, I noticed that some Wikipedia URLs seemed to be flipping from HTTP to HTTPS. I ran a quick count, and this wasn't just a fluke. It turns out that Wikipedia started switching their entire site to HTTPS around June 12 (hat tip to Jan Dunlop). This change is expected to take a couple of weeks.
It's just one site, though, right? Well, historically, this one site is the #1 largest land-holder across the SERP real-estate we track, with over 5% of the total page-1 URLs in our tracking data (5.19% as of June 17). Wikipedia is a giant, and its movements can shake the entire web.
So, how do we tease this apart? If Wikipedia's URLs had simply flipped from HTTP to HTTPS, we should see a pretty standard pattern of shake-up. Those URLs would look to have changed, but the SERPS around them would be quiet. So, I ran an analysis of what the temperature would've been if we ignored the protocol (treating HTTP/HTTPS as the same). While slightly lower, that temperature was still a scorching 96.6°F.
Is it possible that Wikipedia moving to HTTPS also made the site eligible for a rankings boost from previous algorithm updates, thus disrupting page 1 without any code changes on Google's end? Yes, it is possible – even a relatively small rankings boost for Wikipedia from the original HTTPS algorithm update could have a broad impact.
The Third Clue: Google?
So far, Google has only said that this was not a Panda update. There have been rumors that the HTTPS update would get a boost, as recently as SMX Advanced earlier this month, but no timeline was given for when that might happen.
Is it possible that Wikipedia's publicly announced switch finally gave Google the confidence to boost the HTTPS signal? Again, yes, it's possible, but we can only speculate at this point.
My gut feeling is that this was more than just a waking giant, even as powerful of a SERP force as Wikipedia has become. We should know more as their HTTPS roll-out continues and their index settles down. In the meantime, I think we can expect Google to become increasingly serious about HTTPS, even if what we saw yesterday turns out not to have been an algorithm update.
In the meantime, I'm going to melodramatically name this "The Colossus Update" because, well, it sounds cool. If this indeed was an algorithm update, I'm sure Google would prefer something sensible, like "HTTPS Update 2" or "Securageddon" (sorry, Gary).
Update (June 18)
Gary Illyes from Google said that he's not aware of an HTTPS update (via Twitter):
No comment on other updates, or the potential impact of a Wikipedia change. I feel strongly that there is an HTTPS connection in the data, but as I said – that doesn't necessarily mean the algorithm changed.
Update (June 19)
The rise in total HTTPS URLs has continued for the past two days:
Interestingly, though, MozCast temps have been fairly normal in those past two days. So, I dug into how the HTTPS increase looks if we don't count Wikipedia URLs:
Long story short – virtually the entire HTTPS increase in our data set was due to Wikipedia's update. Although, Wikipedia's movement did likely cause SERP disruptions, it looks like this is not the explanation (or, at least, the full explanation) for what happened on Tuesday.
Very interesting. In the UK both people I know in the industry and myself saw massive fluctuations from Friday, which is the opposite of what Mozcast saw, as you said, "an unusually quiet weekend". I'm not saying you're wrong, just that in the UK it seems to have started from Friday onwards.
I did see Wikipedia fluctuate dramatically for the terms I monitor, but that is only a very small proportion of a very large pot.
Completely in agreement with Ash. Wikipedia are present in only a fraction of the terms we monitor and in most cases there are no HTTPS sites involved in any movement.
The only wild theory I had was what if previously Wikipedia wasn't classed as a seed within Google's version of the trust algorithm but now with its changes to HTTPS (and who knows what else behind closed doors) it has been added thus increasing the worth of links from Wikipedia. This is pure speculation of course.
Malc.
UK here too, looking back I spotted a fluctuation on Monday (http) for a couple of rankings, jumping around 10 positions down and up each. Nothing since though
Richard, that's very similar to what I saw, but it started on Friday. Looking back now though, I can see that HTTPS websites for the categories I monitor have seen a slight drop in visibility (inc. Wikipedia).
However, the amount of data I have to analyse is quite small (2,000 keywords)
I am only looking across a few hundred but they do stand out as for around 4 years we haven't seen the majority of these keywords more more than a couple of positions.
Something to keep a very close eye on at least
Wikipedia has high rankings everywhere. So if they change pages on their site from http to https then the percentage of https URLs on page 1 of those searches should shoot up by 10%. So, in my mind https is not a factor here. In fact, the histogram above might understate.
Agreed, but that doesn't explain why, if we remove the http/https temperature elevation, we're still left with very high temps, or why other SERPs are anecdotally showing https changes (without Wikipedia). Tricky thing is that Wikipedia didn't seem to get more overall real-estate, but they did move. In other words, result #4 didn't just change from "http:" to "https:", but it moved in the rankings. So, teasing it all apart becomes really tricky.
SEMrush shows a 10% drop coincidentally in visibility for Wikipedia, which makes sense considering the migration. Maybe their temporary loss in "trust" resulted in the shaking up of all the sites they link to lol
And according to John Mueller + Gary Illyes at Google, Panda update should be coming in the next few weeks. Buckle up for another roller coaster. We're living in #hot times ;) #surprises and #predictions
Hi Vadim, well, whatever comes, spammers should be afraid :)
The MOZCAST coincides with the weather in Florida ;o)
Now it would be interesting to see if links from https pages will worth more comparing to links from http pages.
In my little niche (wedding DJs) I think that https is hardly a signal. I am the only https enabled local website, and there are only two others (national sites) that are https enabled in the top 40. My site went down from 2-4 to 8-9 and still has not climbed back up yet. I still can't get a gauge of what is more vaulable as a signal now and what is not.
Thank you for that insight. I'm considering switching to https so every info like this is valuable.
Just today I've started to notice Wikipedia ranking a lot higher for some broad commercial search queries where they definitely weren't on page #1 say last week for instance. A couple of examples are 'treadmills' or 'elliptical cross trainer' in Google.com.au - very interesting indeed.
I have change my url to https before read this, i hope that the percentage of https web on first page will be increase in future...
Thanks for this post.
I love Moz/Pete. How would I have ever have known that. Great article, interesting to see how it further develops.
Very interesting article. You have access to such amazing resources; your data pool and the intelligence with which you interpret it.
Nice article mate.. learned a lot of things. thanks for taking time and writhing the article.
Is anyone noticing this in Australia? I haven't seen much of a change TBH. Maybe we are far, far behind. Again :P Fantastic analysis as usual by Dr. Pete!
Algoroo showed some activity, but Dan said it wasn't at the scale that we saw.
If https was a factor, I am highly doubting it weighed much compared to other signals. In my market (Mobile DJs) I have a specific keyword that I have been consistently #2-3 in SERP. With this change I have fallen to #8. In the top 40 results in this keyword there are three sites that have https, one a national link aggregator at #1, one is Craigslist at #9, and one is another national site at #40. So i am the only local result, with https, and I am mobile-friendly (where many of these sites are not) and I slipped quite a bit.
Extremely interesting article-- and contingent with things that I've been noticing in my space. Some of our competitors fell hard on large-volume keyword terms, in some cases right off page 1 and into page 2. The common trend? We're HTTPS and they're not...I'll keep an eye on what happens if/when they make the change but I think you got it exactly right.
So long story short, it looks like all the shakeup was pretty much the result of Wikipedia, no?
It looks like the HTTPS changes were mostly or entirely the result of Wikipedia, but not the actual algorithm flux. I still think there's something else going on with that, and that an update did happen.
This is super stuff. I mean the kind of data analysis you guys do is awesome and helps a lot in understanding and strategize further. Though Google has denied it have anything to do with https, we all know it has definitely something to do with https. Adding to it the Google guys emphasised weeks back about the important of https and clearly mentioned that https site will get preference over non https sites.
I think this update was more inclined towards newsworthy content, there seem to be a lot of news sites popping up with a number of SERPS and that too with https.
We use https for our site and many of our clients and never saw a boost. However, we do expect future bumps down the road as they start to implement and adjust the algorithm.
Did you actually get to the bottom about whether this was an actual update, or just an unusual one-off fluctuation in the SERPs caused by the wikipedia change?
My personal conclusion is that there was an actual update *and* Wikipedia had considerable impact. Unfortunately, teasing apart the data proved to be very difficult, and I can't back that up as much more than an educated guess.
Ah, the power of Wiki! It's certainly the sleeping giant that not only intimidates, but also mystifies. The interesting thing is reading the comments coming from Australia. Where's the corelatiion? Is there an https corelation?
We noticed a massive traffic spike for a client in the travel industry who is not running HTTPS, however, we did recently win some links from sites with HTTPS. Going to roll SSL out and see if it makes a difference. My initial thoughts are that it will have a short term detrimental effect. Interesting none the less. The move to more trust and security suggests to me that Google are looking to pull in more sources and devices for the algo and need data transfer to be secure. Are they going to be looking at brand queries on watches differently to mobiles, games consoles & smart devices in the home? I think so.
Hi Dr. Peter J. Meyers,
Love to read great insights. "Not panda update". I read about this update in more than 5 authentic websites, but your way and vision of analysis attracts me very much like more than X-man and the main point "Google has been given the confidence to boost the HTTPS signal by Wikipedia"? Yes! we should speculate at this point.
Isn't this related to the "Mobilegeddon" update that Google launched? Or is this separate to that?
I highly highly doubt that. In my market less than 50% of the sites ahead of me are even mobile friendly. Before this update I was #3-4, and the next couple below me were mobile friendly. They dropped even further.
Not that our data suggests. We track mobile results separately, and they moved roughly the same as desktop.
Interesting - moving over to https anyway - so we'll see how it works out :-)
We are not seeing changes in the https / http sites in the verticals we follow. We do see the update started around the 14th/15th kicked in full on the 16th.
Interestin, but i don't understand why https better than http ?
The "S" Stands for secure - the information you submit to a site is supposed to be safer.
The HTTPS Website got the benefit of users faith as its safe and secure. :-)
The most common signal I'm seeing in pages that have been hit on sites like Patient.co.uk and HolidayExtras.co.uk is keyword stuffing.
Pages like this ending with paragraphs like this: "Common searches for this page include: what is prickly heat rash, what does prickly heat mean, is prickly heat rash dangerous, how do you get prickly heat rash, what causes prickly heat rash, treatment for prickly heat, prickly heat rash treatment, symptoms of prickly heat rash, prickly heat symptoms."
Feels like some straightforward pre-full-rollout Panda testing to me...
The patient.co.uk issue is moreover the fact they've switched over to a .info domain name. I wouldn't necessarily blame their drop on what's happening in the SERPs, but the fact that they've changed from a ccTLD to a gTLD.
Fascinating to see the impact that changes to a single site can have, even if that site is Wikipedia. The temperature jump they seem to have caused - a full 5°F - is impressive. It will be interesting to see whether there is a corresponding drop in temperature a few days after they finish the switch.
I have noticed some weird traffic trends recently, my non-https site rankings are up, my https site seems unmoved.
The data you're using US results only Pete? Can't see much happening in the UK from playing around here, in a very non-scientific bunch of manual Googling.
**Edit** Just noticed Ash commented re UK and it maybe starting on Friday - not seeing anything massively different since then either though, and that would be weird as don't they always roll everything out in the US first?
Great stuff Pete!
Hi Dr. Pete,
The best part was calling it "Securageddon". Definitely as the name signifies, it's all about being a secure domain which search engines can trust and this might be an added reason that Wikipedia moved from HTTP to HTTPS. Let's see if we see any update from Barry Schwartz over this.
Algoroo is showing a big yellow spike but its showing that for June 18 and Mozcast here has caught a really terrible disturbance on June 16. This got me confused! Why such a difference Dr. Pete? But seriously whatever reason is for is for the huge red spike, we will have to wait and keep a watch on what's happening. Gary is not admitting a big update but who knows Google might surprise you the next moment.
Great takeaway on the Mozcast, Dr Pete! Will be waiting for your next blog on this.
Great informative post. Thanks to share . . .
Thanks Dr. Pete. "The Colossus Update" he he. https on Wikipedia, that is sure a lot of urls. Gary says nothing to do with https from Google's end... we will see. :)
Maybe we're seeing the manifestation of both improved rankings for being https:// and a new ranking signal for links from https:// sites regardless if passing PR?
Both our sites saw around 5-10% increase in visibility yesterday, both are on http. Both in travel vertical, monitoring around 1,000 keywords, from broad competitive, to long-tail.
Wikipedia makes a big fluctuation in her transfer to https and it has a repercussion in all traffic and seo position of thousands of webs but affortunately it just lasted a few days...
Who cares if Wikipedia is running HTTP or HTTPS... you don't give them any credit card info.... and it's still not any more "secure" than HTTP when it comes down to it. Not a sitewide change that's worth their money, in my opinion -- or anyone else's for that matter.
I will say that my average CPC in Adwords was STUPIDLY cheap yesterday. Easily 60% cheaper than the previous day.
Does anyone have some suggestions for a indivudal/team that can offer some link building that gets results? Thanks
Hi Jack! This isn't really the spot to ask for that sort of help -- we try and keep the blog comments relevant to what the author discussed. For now, we do have a list of companies we recommend you peruse. =)
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