It's that magical time of year when all of us who foolishly assumed the mantle of clairvoyance last December check up on our abilities and repeat our arrogant presumption again. Not surprisingly, something compels me to try again, despite the odds, but I am feeling a bit whimsical tonight, so let's make a game out of the prediction practice.
For each prediction (mine and others), we can grade using the following points system:
- Spot On (+2) - when a prediction hits the nail on the head and the primary criteria are fulfilled
- Partially Accurate (+1) - predictions that are in the area, but are somewhat different than reality
- Not Completely Wrong (-1) - those that landed near the truth, but couldn't be called "correct" in any real sense
- Off the Mark (-2) - guesses which didn't come close
The rule is - if the score is lower than +1, the blogger/industry leader/author isn't allowed to make predictions for the coming year.
So let's mark up my 8 predictions from last year and see whether new predictions are permitted:
- This Real Time Search Thing is Outta Here (+1) - technically, it's still around, though far less prevalent. I said "In 2010, I think this fades away. Perhaps not entirely, but we won't be seeing it for nearly as many queries with the prevalence we do today," which, on the scoring scale, probably deserves a "partially accurate."
- Twitter's Link Graph is the Real Deal (+2) - my guess seems oddly prescient when compared to Google + Bing's interview a few weeks back. "Google's not going to just take raw number of tweets or re-tweets. I think we're already seeing the relevance and reputation calculations in their decisions of which tweets and sources to show in the real-time results, and I expect that algorithms/metrics like PageRank, TrustRank, etc. will find their way into how Google uses the real-time data." I wonder if my luck can last.
- Personalized Search is Here to Stay (-1) - The title of this guess would make you think I'd got it right, but the substance is lacking. I noted that "If it's proven that you can get organic benefits by attracting PPC clickthrough, this may be the new "paid inclusion" for 2010, and could drive bid prices up massively as companies compete not only for paid listing clicks, but for the chance to earn "organic" positioning as well." Personalization bias didn't go towards brand exposure, and it actually hasn't got much stronger (apart from the localization element, which I didn't predict). Technically, it's still around, but it didn't become the juggernaut I thought it would.
- It's Going to Be a Two-Engine 80/20 World (+2) - Google's market share of web searches sending external traffic is likely very close to this (although Comscore reports only 66%, those numbers are heavily biased due to non-web-search "search" activity counted in the figures). A far better source would be something like StatCounter's referral data from the 15 billion pageviews/month on 3 million+ websites, which reports 81.88% for Google, and ~18% for Bing/Yahoo!. Given that Ask.com, Cuil and Yahoo! all folded their search operations this year, and Facebook/Twitter/Somebody Else Big hasn't entered the field, I'm giving this a "Spot On."
- Site Explorer and Linkdomain Will Disappear (+1) - Linkdomain is gone (at least in the US, and soon in most other countries), but it appears we'll still have until 2012(ish) with Site Explorer, so I'm giving this a (possibly slightly generous) rating of "partially accurate."
- SEO Spending Will Rise Dramatically (-1) - This one depends on the meaning of "dramatically." SEMPO's data suggests that 43% of marketers "expect" to spend more on SEO, but this is down 2% from 2009's survey. SEOmoz's own survey unfortunately doesn't compare apples to apples (we haven't asked the same question multiple years in a row and thus can't compare well). As of now, no new sources have come forward with data we're aware of (Forrester + eMarketer being the usual suspects). Thus, I'll give a "not completely wrong," since we really don't know.
- 2010 is the Year of Conversion Rate Optimization (-1) - Again, I'm going to say this was "not completely wrong" but it's also very tough to measure. We've had more speakers on CRO at search and marketing events of all varieties. Anecdotal reports would indicate CRO is becoming a more common and popular practice for organic marketers, but without solid numbers, it's hard to know. We can presume, however, that if there aren't lots of studies and data reports touting it, this probably wasn't "the year."
- More Queries Will Send Less Traffic (-1) - Given the launch of Google Instant, the personalization and localization of results, increased ranking inconsistency and more universal/vertical results in the SERPs, I'm going to say this is possibly near the mark, but not definitively correct. Google Instant, in particular, appears not to have moved the needle much on search demand and queries sending traffic. In fact, the only reason this is "not completely wrong" is due to my clever non-prediction of how many queries would send how much less traffic. :-)
Tallying the numbers, I'm seeing +6 and -4, for a total of +2, which means new predictions for 2011. I also invite you to analyze some of the many lists of predictions for this past year here. If my calculations are correct, Mashable and TechCrunch are out of the predictions business (the latter just barely) while the New York Times' Bits Blog should continue (though, like me, they made some pretty pansy predictions).
Without further ado, my predictions for SEO in 2011:
#1: Someone Proves (or a Search Engine Confirms) that Clicks/Visits Influence Rankings
I'm taking a chance on this one, but I've been hearing from more and more SEOs that there's some correlation between earning clicks and moving up in the rankings. In 2011, we'll get confirmation, either through testing or an admission from an engine that click-through-rate from the SERPs, visit count outside of search (or diversity of sources), or other usage-based data is in the ranking algorithm (or a method they use to help ID spam).
#2: Google Local/Maps Adds Filters and Sorting
The big reason Yelp is so much better than Google Maps/Local for finding a good local "place" isn't just the reviews (which Google aggregates from Yelp anyway). It's the filters that let me sort by features/pricing/proximity/open status/etc. Google's been playing the silly game of forcing users to choose search queries to enable rough, imperfect filtering, but 2011 is going to see the search engine shift to a model that allows at least some important filters/feature-selection.
#3: Social Search Will Rise
There's power in social media search, and Google/Bing's efforts to date have been lackluster at best. I suspect in 2011, we'll see the nascent beginning of search that leverages Twitter/Facebook/LinkedIn connections to find results from your friends. It's possible this will start niche-based only (search articles your friends have shared, ala Trunk.ly), but it could also be broader - possibly something from Facebook or Twitter themselves.
#4: Rank Tracking Will Be Possibly Through the Referral String
Google's been slowly growing the percent of queries that contain the numeric position of the result in the referral data. Given how much this information means to marketers (even those who realize it's frequently not telling the whole story), and how much automated scraping/requests goes through each day, I'd venture to guess that Google will increase this further and maybe even add some support for it in GA (why force your engine to work harder and your impressions counts to suffer unnecessarily?)
#5: Mobile Will Have a Negligible Effect on Search/SEO
For years, I've heard the prognostication that SEO and search are going to be flipped on their heads once mobile query usage takes off. I'll boldly predict that not only will mobile usage of search NOT skyrocket in 2011 on the long-awaited J-curve, but that the mobile and normal web browsing experiences will continue to merge toward a single experience, thus negating much of the need for mobile-specific sites and SEO. They'll always be mobile-related marketing opportunities in games and local (though these are hardly limited to mobile devices), but mobile SEO will pretty much just be "SEO."
_
#6: Software Will Become an SEO Standard
For the decade I've been in SEO, software and tools have always been a "nice-to-have" and not a "must-have" (with the possible exception of web analytics). In 2011, I see several SEO software companies growing to critical mass based on the market's demand, possibly including: Raven Tools, Conductor's Searchlight, Brightedge, SearchMetrics, RankAbove, DIYSEO and/or GinzaMetrics. Hubspot, while more of a CMS/holistic marketing tool, will also likely fit in this group as their SEO offerings get stronger. Oh, and SEOmoz's Web App could do pretty well, too :-)
#7: We'll Start to Move Away from the Title "SEO" to Something More All-Inclusive
For years, I've prided myself being an SEO and embraced the title, the community, the positives and the negatives that come with it. But with the search engines expanding so far afield in the signals they consider and the verticals/media types they include, I have to face facts - SEO today calls for much more of a talented generalist than a pointed specialist. We need to be savvy about and good at so many facets of organic web marketing that to call us "SEOs" is less empowering and more limiting than in the past.
Now I'd love to hear some of your predictions for 2011 and see who's earned scores predicting 2010 that gives them the right to guess about 2011.
p.s. I didn't take the obvious "Google's going to crack down on more link spam" or "Social's going to be even more important" prediction gimmes, because I just don't think I'd respect myself tomorrow morning.
Something makes me think that in 2011 people will be obsessed with optimizing their social profiles. I think this will be the year of personal branding for many (didn't you launch a personal blog, Rand? =) ), and people will compete to aquire the top 10 SERPs for their name.
https://randfishkin.com/blog/
I agree completely as Social SEO should be big in 2011. At the recent Digital Marketing Conference in Portland, Chris Murphy, Head of Digital Marketing for Adidas US presented on the Adidas Strategy for the 2010 World Cup. Instead of advertising and driving visitors to their websites, they sent them to their Facebook and Youtube pages. In the case of Youtube, the tons of extra video views on Youtube, lead to their videos showing up in more video searches, that lead to more visits to their profiles and more fans/likes and the cycle continues...
Hm. Unfortunately there's a well-known Derek Slater who works at Google, so for me to get the top 10 SERP spots is going to be an uphill battle! :)
Try having a name like Jennifer Lopez... :)
Respectable showing last year - well done!
Think the points you make on the title "SEO" are key and important that there isn't a silo-effect on SEO efforts in the new year. It will be interesting to track the actual titles people start using to describe tasks that were traditionally viewed as SEO tasks and a rebrand might be difficult, but will be interesting to monitor none the less. One thing in particular on this front- I think there is a need to assign value beyond simply "rankings" for any online marketer worth their salt and though experience and focus on "SEO" is key, I too prefer the route of a skilled generalist.
The title was pretty strong on number 5 leading me to believe you were going to get that one wrong, but in reading your description I think it's probably not as bold a prediction as the title suggested.
My personal view/hope for 2011 is that the "places" results for everything is outta here" this time around... though we'll have to wait a while to see.
Thanks a lot for compiling this Rand.
Edit: Clarity
Rand,
I love these predictions but as I didn't agree last year with the "2 search engine world" guess, I can't agree now:
Baidu has the 70.8% of share in China, which means that potentially there are 948,000,000 Chinese using it (and I am not even considering Taiwan.
Say "is a 2 search engine western world" and I agree.
We come to a lot of the same conclusions - but we also disagree on a few points.
I've written my own SEO Guide for 2011 in which I talk about:
I also review my own SEO Guide for 2010.
If you're interested, check it out.
https://vincesamios.com/internetmarketing/seo-guide-for-2011
I hate shameless plugs like this. One trend I want to see in 2011 is a sharp decline in the number of BS blog posts that say things like "great post..really inciteful". Comments like this don't help anyone except for the commentor who just collected a free link, or got some cheap exposure.
This blog post, however, was actually a very interesting read. 2010 was a good year for SEO, and it's nice to look back and see how wrong (or right) we all were about some things.
I had a look at the post, some decent points. Hard to say that non .com tlds with EMD value will be dropped. I know country level domains and also even extensions such as .us will hold strong from my experience. Sure you may see some .info's drop I have seen it happening.
But yes also agree with the comments about gurus in the market, I have seen people with 6 months expeirence saying they are a guru. I mean I have 7 years experience in various niches, various markets I am still learning, very few can brand them selves as gurus.
But overall nice post.
I wish you had been right about (7) - CRO in 2010 - but I have to agree. People need a lot more educating before the attitude shift. I had a client who gets all excited about tiny traffic increases, but I proved to them that a small change could boost conversions 20%, and they barely cared. It's just not how they think yet, and the numbers alone won't convince them. Especially for small to mid-sized business, a focus on conversion is going to take a few more years.
Great Post but I can't see anything related to Google TV ?
Don't you think that, it will impact the search industry by end of the year, though still there are no oficial data but seems Google is trying hard to push it.
Agree with Himanshu that I can predict that, Mobile SEO will going to be grow in 2011
thanks for the great article :)
Hey Amish,
I agree with your point that Google TV will also make a large difference in coming year......
#1 already happened. At SMX East, Bing's Steve Tullis said that Bing uses all the information it can get its hands on, including click-through rates on links, to make ranking decisions. Googling (or Binging, I guess) something like "Steve Tullis click through rate" will point you to many articles that document his statement. Barry Schwartz wrote https://searchengineland.com/bing-uses-click-through-rate-in-ranking-algorithm-52386 that he specifically confirmed this with Steve after the comment.
Using CTR sounds
2010 is the Year of Conversion Rate Optimization should be +1 it's broken into the mainstream now I think
I agree. =)
I agree with you especially with #7 All inclusive.
I love #7 but I think it's a bit optimistic that this change will actually occur. I think we'll continue to be called SEO, and we'll continue to see the "SEO is dead/irrelevant" or "SEO destroys the internet/is spam" claims that a lot of the Jason Calacanis types love to spew out there (which usually result in epic Danny Sullivan or Rusty Brick posts disproving/discrediting them).
I'd love to see SEO rebranded as just digital marketing or internet marketing, but I doubt that will occur unless there is a significant event to trigger this change, or a major organization starts pimping out the name (SEOmoz are you listening? haha)
#1 - I'm pretty sure that Bing recently confirmed that it uses clickthrough rate as a ranking factor. Straight CTR seems kind of simplistic, but I wouldn't doubt for a second that some sort of time on site or bounce rate metric is being used as a ranking factor. (All of the new data in Webmaster Tools on keyphrases and CTR also raises an eyebrow. I don't usually buy the idea that the engines are putting extraneous data in front of webmasters purely as a diversion, so why did all of this detailed CTR data suddenly show up?)
#7 - I'm interested to see where this goes, but I generally agree - moving the needle seems to require a more diverse set of skills than it once did. When I think about it, many of the things I do on a daily basis are things that some people focus their entire careers on (copywriting, coding, conversion optimization, data analysis, social/managing communities, competitive research, etc.)
All in all, a sound set of predictions! :)
Yes, Bing did confirm that (see my comment higher up for more details).
Thanks for sharing this nice information and congratulatios on getting a lot of pluses for the predictions of last year. Wish you all the best with all your predictions for 2011
Instead of SEO let's call it WPO= Web Presence Optimization.
I actually really like that term! Needs Rand or Matt Cutts to start using it before it'll stick!
Hey Rand. As far as #7 goes, I think it's like nnnick said above. The term "SEO" will stick.
Even though the job of an SEO has morphed into a multiplicity of disciplines, there has never been any term that's described what we do that's anywhere near as popular as "SEO". I agree with you that there should be another term but I don't see any of the alternatives gaining any real traction in the minds of John Q. Public.
So I believe that we'll continue being called "SEO's" even though Search Enginer Optimisation is just a fraction of what many of us do.
SEO = Search Experience Optimization
I think that can include almost all
Ooh. I like that! =)
I think you were a little too hard on yourself, Rand! :) Some very nice predictions for 2011
I'm going to get a little more specific on #1. I believe that Google, rather than measuring the clicks or click rate, would be more concerned with the second clicks and the refined searches.
For example, If I click on one result, come back to Google with the same query, and click on a second result, that's a signal that I didn't find what I was looking for; the same is true of refining my search. If you switch position 1 and 2, do you see an increase or decrease in second/refined searches? It's a sort of A/B/etc. test that could help tell you which page is more useful.
I don't think the latter is fully in place, but I do agree that Google looks at this data to draw limited conclusions. I suspect that it will matter more as Google refines it.
Great post Rand. I definitely agree that Google will be revamping the entire review experience in Places....Hotpot is just a sign of things to come. Review filters as well as Reviewer-authority factoring into the way reviews are displayed. One of the things that Yelp is most proud of is that review algo filter that separates the non-active from the active users.
I also agree with your thoughts on mobile SEO. I think Google will be updating the UI for mobile search, but the factors for ranking will remain largely the same from desktop to mobile device. But in 2-3 years, that may not be the same.
Some of my other predictions for search in 2011 include:
Read my full post here: https://www.thunderseo.com/blog/keep-your-eyes-open-5-seo-trends-2011
RE #7 - I don't think that SomethingMoreAllInclusiveMoz has the same ring to it. The domain is available though for anyone willing to take a punt!
I think the phrase SEO is already fairly All Inclusive and means a lot of different things to different people. It even depends on who you are working for. An SEO for a multi channel retailer will inevitably have to understand all the sales channels to provide the best ROI on his efforts, even if he is solely responsible for SEO. Although it won't happen in 2011, I expect that eventually (2020 maybe??) there will be very little difference between an online marketer and just a marketer. The more we move online and stop spending advertising dollars offline, the more that online marketing will become the default rather than the niche.
hi, Rand, how are you?
My favourites are #1 & #4.
#4 ('track rank accurately through referral string') would be really useful & would provide a big 'missing link' in making google analytics data a bit more actionable for SEOs.
#1 ('prove that clicks influence ranking') is another good one - interesting to think what an algorithm for that would look like for google without sites becoming too self-reinforcing. This is a metric I've used on ecommerce sites & almost always results in extra revenue (eg. moving products with a heavy 'view:click' ratios further up category pages, or give them increased weighting in on-site search results).
The only one I disagreed with was #7. An 'all inclusive' term to replace SEO is just a bit too subjective. There are 'SEOs' who manage websites, who optimise on-site, who specialise heavily in analytics/copywriting/ppc/usability/affiliate/etc. The only big catch-all terms for that are things like 'digital marketer' or 'online marketer'. If anything, it seems to be going the opposite way - with job titles fragmenting & more & more jobs springing up for these tasks. eg the items on your diagram could fall under 'online pr', 'digital brand manager', 'content strategist', 'social media manager', 'analyst', 'linkbuilder', 'community manager', etc, in addition to the catch-all 'digital marketer' type titles.
dan
"#1 ('prove that clicks influence ranking') is another good one - interesting to think what an algorithm for that would look like for google without sites becoming too self-reinforcing."
I think search engines know what sort of CTR is expected for each position for each type of search, and if a result's CTR is less than expected, that result would lose relevance or authority.
As well as potentially being self reinforcing another problem with this would be it would be open to abuse. There are already companies employing people in poorer parts of the world to sit around all day solving captcha's, so how long before companies start springing up employing people to sit around searching on particular keywords and then clicking on the target domain in the results...? Or of course this sort of thing could also be done just as well by bots.
Hey Rand,
Nice predictions and I think I support most of them.Number 7 is the one I find most interesting, as I started doing exactly that more then a year ago.It is so much harder to explain to a client that I am an SEO - Expert then explaining that my skills will increase their website traffic with a lot. And I think more and more SEO - people will start doing just that. I don't do SEO only, I do traffic improvements for the client. Optimizing Titles and Descriptions, Keyword Research, Competitor Research, CRO, Reports, Content Improvements, Social Media Optimization, Linkbuilding, Linkbaits, Branding, Client workshops about Google.
Most of those things are included in SEO I guess, but SEO shouldn't be the goal, traffic is the goal. Clients hire us to get them traffic, not to do our SEO Voodoo.
So I do agree. I think we need to add more strings and move away from SEO towards something else. Something involving traffic. Because that is A LOT easier to sell to the clients. All clients understand reports and traffic, most of them don't understand SEO.
Best regards,
Niklas
SEO is a means to an end, not a goal. Search engine visibility is the goal. And it involves all sorts of optimization: content, code, architecture, visitor interaction (aka CRO), off-site (e.g., social and online communities), and intelligent backlinking. I call myself "The Optimizer" because my skill set is way beyond SEO - which is likely true of anyone in the SEO biz.
I'm not sure I understood the part
For years, I've prided myself being an SEO and embraced the title, the community, the positives and the negatives that come with it. But with the search engines expanding so far afield in the signals they consider and the verticals/media types they include, I have to face facts - SEO today calls for much more of a talented generalist than a pointed specialist.
I mean... what's wrong with being a talented generalist? I'd rather be that than a "pointed specialist". From a personal point of view, the thing I enjoy the most about being an SEO is that the job is part marketing, part promotion, part copywriting, part technical stuff etc. etc. I think overspecialization is, very often, what makes a job boring.
Next time next years will be fun (and instructive) to see how our predictions were pointing in the right directions or not.
About mine, apart using "signs" I will try to make them using some market logic:
Thanks Rand, I truly enjoy reading your posts, edu-train indeed. Infact I find myself having to Google much of your articles content, just to remain abreast with the numerous technical terms and expanded vocabulary, likewise for many of the comments that follow. Prediction #5 illuminates particular interest as once again it alludes to centralization at the cost of diversity (the point that mobile SEO will not emerge into the comprehensive force as once fortold, instead a potential merging with regular SEO awaits). We are heading for a mono-techological age! Prediction: If it ain't Google, it won't fit!
Hi, great post and great predictions. Two things not to forget are Content and Links and both should now also come from your Social Media profiles.
Good predictions and also I agree with Gil, number 1 prediction has already happened and this is now one of the factors that Google is referring to.
Great post, Rand! I love that you provided a scoring system for previous predictions. It certainly adds more value, accountability and authenticity for new ones. You were spot on to call the others out for not performing well. I think they should adopt your "prediction scoring" model. ;-)
Regarding Conversion Rate Optimization (CRO) for 2010, your "-1" grade is too harsh. I agree "+1" may be too kind. I see there's no neutral "0" score in your system. Only grading predictions as a pass/fail? I can appreciate that. =)
As a CRO, I think the "Year of Conversion Optimization" is still coming, but 2010 definitely broke the ice. Demand will rise (as it should) in 2011 to parallel SEO. Maybe by 2012 companies will learn there's no point in driving traffic that doesn't convert, but that may be wishful thinking. The hype for search/social currently trumps conversion even with the impressive ROI metrics. (Crazy!) SEOs need to rally in this arena to help educate companies on conversion optimization.
SEO and CRO are like the chicken and the egg; they both rely on each other to exist.
Regarding 2011 predictions:
#2: Google Local/Maps/Places ads Filters/Sorting. I hope this is true. I'd be happy if they just got their act together on the Local/Places/Maps spiel. Google keeps cranking out tools instead of enhancing ones they've already created. The Google experience clearly needs some optimization.
#4: Rank Tracking via Referral String. Bold prediction, but very insightful. This is one to watch indeed!
#7: "SEO" Title Morphing. My instinct response was that Corporate HR would trump this based on the need for standardized job titles for collecting market salary data. However, (especially after reading the comments) as long as the title remains a SEO acronym it will suffice. (Ex: SEO = Search Engine Optimization, Site Experience Optimization, Social Engagement Optimization, etc.) So the SEO title remains, but the meaning morphs. Bring on the morphing! (Acquisio t-shirt potential here?)
(I generally agree on all the others.)
Additional prediction thoughts:
=) Happy New Year!
SEO is becoming “Social Engine Optimization”… no doubt :D
I also believe people will try to focus on their social profiles more than ever, especially for “new” search engines like Blekko in where “friends make search better!”
What I don’t really know is if people will change their way they search –something Google Instant is doing right know- and how many time it will takes.
That is what I love from the SEO: it´s always changing!
Agree 100% with #6. It's a must now to have SEO software, which is why i think Google should buy Raven Tools and integrate it into Google Analytics (for free of course) :)
i think guest blogging would be a hot topic in 2011. It has gained popularity in recent days and i can predict that guest blogging will be an important part of SEO campaigns in near future. Many SEO marketing blogs offer guest blogging and in 2011 other industry bloggers will adopt this technique too.
[link removed]
My vote would be for "web marketing" in number 7.
It's known that social marketing improves search engine ranking. It's known that good content improves ranking. And marketing is all about getting to the customers (searchers) and giving them what they need just the way they need it. Hello SEO. :)
Web Marketing is definitely the term we'll be using at some point in 2011 for SEO, marketing and getting to the customers.
Just my two dollars. Cents is just weak.
I agree with this post , i hope seo market with increase in 2011 , thanks for sharing this post
2011 will be an interesting year for SEO's.
Key areas we will need to push even further are: Trust level of domains, social influence of SERPS, mobile dominance of websites, speed and accesibility.
I think SEO's will need to pick up the game, the basics will not cut it you can not give people the 1 step offering you need to works pacakge for decent results.
1 - I suspect it would be the year of less importance of straight domain names.
In highly competitive markets (I work in the casino area in NL for example - my site is https://www.onlinecasinoinfo.nl) you see odd or spammy results hitting the first spots simply due to domain names. The fact that a domain name of a weird .tld like .WS could rank worldwide and you would gain something from buying a non-international KW domain is beyond my understanding.
2 - I suspect it would be the time where SEO's would go "back to the sources"
Directory links are still counted. Article links are still counted and relevant. Some "big names" tend to neglect the simple methods.
3 - I suspect it's the year where social profiles & CTR would get lesser importance because they are too prone to spam. A zombie who is a friend of other zombies (fake profiles) is too easy to generate. Whenever twitter or facebook become a high ranking factor, they wouldn't be able to fight against spam. CTR is too easy to generate as well.
Those are my takes. Happy new year!
Definitely agree with #7
I developed my company in 2008 with this idea already in mind which is why I chose the company name "Become Noticed" and the URL https://www.becomenoticed.com. Glad to see everyone joining me.
#1 is something I've been considering since 2009 with my clients. It just makes logical sense. Also explains why it is sometimes very difficult to beat very established items in search results.
You did leave some stuff out for 2011.
I predict in 2011:
1. Early adopters of semantic technologies will benefit in search engines and conversions.
We will see greater adoption of semantic technologies such as RDFa and HTML5 Microdata for rich snippet data in search results.
Example: Overstock.com just redid their entire site in RDFa so that product snippets will appear in search results and attract the eyes of visitors as well as enter it simultaneously into the global semantic data cloud. This is a sign of things to come. Early adopters will benefit.
Here is video about the Semantic Web: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OM6XIICm_qo
Google's Rich Snippet Documentation Page: https://www.google.com/support/webmasters/bin/topic.py?hl=en&topic=21997
2. Early adopters of HTML5 will benefit in search results against competitors.
HTML5 will gain greater adoption and the semantic tags involved such as header and footer will help search engines resolve what data is important on the page. In the end, I predict early adopters of HTML5 will benefit in search engines by the end of 2011.
One of the best resources for HTML5 will be your local user group. My local one here in San Francisco is a tremendous resource. Look back at past events and download the slides or watch the videos. Here is a link https://www.sfhtml5.org/
FYI I will be presenting on HTML5 microdata in March for this same user group. Definitely come if you're in San Francisco or view the video / slides afterwards.
#3: Social Search Will Rise
I have no doubt about it.
#4: Rank Tracking Will Be Possibly Through the Referral String
Would love to have that without any extra trouble and I also don't see it hard to happen since Google has been openly about the concept in the Webmaster Tools.
Thank you for magical glass to view global tendencies! I was inspired and put great diagram from #7 on my wall.
#7 yes please, and soon. Im so held back by other peoples' concept of an SEO. But what else do I call myself?
It is going to be tough to come up with another multi-disciplinary name to brand ourselves by when there are so many specialistations contributing towards successful optimisation.
Search engine marketing could become all encompassing to include SEO as a subset.
I wouldn’t say these are predictions, only wishes for 2011:
1. Google Places will disappear - In my opinion it’s worsened the user experience.
2. Google will kill Adsense-only sites by cutting them out of the program, freeing up all those great domain names held by domainers. Google’s in a conflict of interest on this one, but I can dream.
3. Blekko will become the number two search engine (mainly by cannibalizing Google’s market share) and we’ll have three strong search engines.
Great post and predictions.
I hope #7 comes true and I've seen a shift that way in the markets I've been working in (LA, Nashville, NY). I see clients beginning to recognize that good SEO takes both a skilled tactician and marketer rather than someone with some manipulative quick-fix tricks up his/her sleeve. At least in the tactics I use and have had success with, all the marketing channels I use (social media, email, viral marketing, microsite campaigns, etc) all have the purpose of putting out useful, quality content with a strong SEO foundation. My title may say SEO, but I am an online marketer for sure. I think the days of SEO referring to a guy in his basement writing page titlesm URLS and meta data is far behind us, at least that's what I've seen.
As far as #1, I think Google would be foolish to not consider it since it ways heavily in their PPC quality scores, but I think they need to add much more than just CTR to make it accurate such as time on the page, pages visited, etc. I see this as another metric that would get abused by those whose first thought is a way around the system rather than creating for a user. I worked with one company that had a tech heavy mentality so SEO was always more about finding a way to automate and manipulate rather than content. With an automated tool that scrapes SERP results using multiple IPs it wouldn't be too much to add in a parameter to give your domain a click-through everytime it came up. This is where I would worry about that. You may think "who would go to that trouble?" and I can tell you there are plenty that would.
And #6 is a definite. Thanks to SEOmoz, Raven Tools, Hubspot and all the others taking the time to make these amazing tools and resource hubs that make our lives SO much easier!
My Assumptions
We should focus and analyze visits from the smart phones and other gadgets. Design part should be also covered for the usabily of various sizes and platforms such as Samsung Galaxy tab, Dell’s Streak, Apple’s iPad and many more.
Social media can also influence keywords rankings, so need to give attention.
Agree with the standard usage of SEO Software and tools that it may increase
Geofencing anyone?
The following things I would like to see in SEO in 2011
1. Death of No-Follow Links
2. Less Spam results in SERP
3. Anchor text filters in Search algorithm
4. Mutt cutts frequently updating his blog with useful SEO tips
5. Special Tags used for in-content text advertisments
6. Improvement in Local Search Algorithm
7. Bing & Yahoo doing some major updates in their search algo
Using CTR as a ranking factor
I think CTR is a good metric that should be used as a ranking factor, the challenge for the Engines is to make sure that CTR is not manupulated and because CTR will be one of many other factors i think it will increase the usefullness of the SERP.
Seo 2011 will be hard as 2010, and within google's magic algorithm we may encounter with some surprises. Indeed google places&maps seo will be improved and take care. Localization is going to have much more importance... Anyway seo is just the adventure with cash returns...better than morer ads...
#7
I don't think this is true although I'm sure someone will want to try and coin a phrase for it.
SEO does and should cover all aspects as they all roll into one and it's not necessarily a website that were optimising, its a company or brand etc for the search engines.
I think as the industry changes so will the meaning for an "SEO"
Great post Rand, I fully agree with #7 here. I think with the implosion of Social Media and less traditional methods of advertising SEO as such will evolve.
Optimising social profiles and utilising all possible on-line channels will undoubtedly move us away from traditional SEO @tomjamesedwards
I'd agree SEO no longer reflects what we really do, maybe Search Marketing Professional would be more apt. Unless you strictly focus on organic rankings then you're not an SEO.
I've always focused on the Organic side of things but these days there's Google Places, AdWords along with everything else we have to consider to bring about the optimal result for clients. It's not just about rankings and search volume...
I think 2011 is going to be a great year for the SEO Industry as finally this industry and professionals will get the much needed and deserved positive reputation mainly because of what is stated in Point #7 –
“SEO today calls for much more of a talented generalist than a pointed specialist. We need to be savvy about and good at so many facets of organic web marketing that to call us "SEOs" is less empowering and more limiting than in the past.”
As the industry gains its due importance and the search engine algorithms become more sophisticated only those who understand the true essence of the SEO art, science and spirit will be able to do justice to the SEO projects .
I agree with Timsoulo that more and more people will optimize their social profiles . This will mainly be done to merge their personal and professional identity and establish a web identity.
The social link graph generated from the personal and professional web presence in the form of blogs, tweets and posts shall be the signals used by the search engines and social media monitoring sites to categorize the social media accounts and determine and differentiate authority accounts .
My predictions:
#7: We'll Start to Move Away from the Title "SEO" to Something More All-Inclusive I think that SEO specialists will always be necessary for generalists like me to learn from, so I think this is only partially likely. I specialize in traffic acquisition and conversion of that traffic. Because this includes SEO, SEM, Media Buying, Syndication, Affiliate Marketing, E-Mail Marketing, Landing Page Optimization and Funnel Optimization...I could never have enough time to research, test and be on top of all of these things. So I have to depend on specialists like SEOMoz to round out my own testing.
I think more likely the trend will be that more marketers will become knowledgeable in their SEO knowledge and will incorporate SEO into their standard bag of tricks.
My own prediction is that if not in 2011, at least by 2012, SEO will become a commodity effort like Web Analytics that will be part of the base of any web project scope from the begining of projects as the norm instead of the exception for most companies.
The time will show if these predictions are correct.
Rand i have to disagree with your prediction "Mobile Will Have a Negligible Effect on Search/SEO".I think you have gone little far with the word 'Negligible Effect'. I don't know on what basis you made this prediction even when Google analytics reports tell a different story. I have several solid stats to rebuff this prediction:
The number of people accessing the mobile Internet is growing fast and is expected to overtake the PC as the most popular way to get on the Web within five years. -Source: International Telecommunication Union, International Data Corporation (IDC)
Many mobile Web users are mobile-only, i.e. they do not, or very rarely also use a desktop, laptop or tablet to access the Web
- Source On Device Research (Mobile Survey and Research Panels)
By 2011, over 85 percent of new handsets will be able to access the mobile Web. - Source Gartner (Global research organization)
(May 2009) estimates that global expenditure on mobile marketing and advertising in 2009 was $7.5 billion, with forecast years for $11.5 billion in 2010, $16.3 billion in 2011 and $21.2 billion in 2012.- Source ABI Research
I can come up with even more research and survey papers. But then my point is not to make every one sleep here. I also do this boring job of collecting research work and case studies with the assumption that businesses don't always believe whatever one says. My prediction for 2011 is that marketers will take analytics more seriously than ever and demand of seo analyst will rise exponentially. (FYI just saw a job opening in London for senior analyst job with £100,000+ package). And i think there is already a new name for SEO, 'Inbound marketer'. Though if someone can come up with even better name then it will be cool :)
Referred to "Inbound Marketer"... I think Dharmesh Shah would have to copyright that invented by him definition :)
I think Rand wants to say that though the sale and use of mobile smartphones will be on the rise , nothing different needs to be done to optimize sites especially for the mobile search .
The mobile SEO scene is going to remain pretty much the same. I think as the mobile phones become more and more smart with the increasing no. of Apps. being available the search results are going to remain the same if searched from a mobile or a non-mobile device.
We are not going to need a special .mobi domain or something else to view the site on the mobile device. Hence no special SEO efforts needed even if the search goes mobile in a big way.
Whilst mobile as a platform is growing hugely (and Google are keen as anything to push the importance of it as well), I believe Rand's prediction is good; mobile SEO won't suddently take off.
I can't see you needing to change your SEO principles massively to rank for a google search done via a smartphone than via a desktop; until somebody shows the search engines use hugely different algos for mobile searches, why would you abandon the good principles you use for your main site?
Even if you have a moible specific site, you should surely be using the strongest elements of your SEO plan on it in the same manner as your full site.
The increase in mobile will see a lot more apps bringing you back local search (and listing) information, so perhaps one SEO discipline, local search, will prove even more important in future - but if you need local search as part of your SEO plan already this again isn't a huge change in plan.
Hi Himanshu,
The growth of mobile will surely increase in coming years, but I agree with Rand that it will have neligible effects on SEO.
The following Rand sentence in the #5 say it all,
"mobile and normal web browsing experiences will continue to merge toward a single experience"
It would be diffcult for search engines to provide different results for mobile & desktop platform. Als, the growth at which mobile development is advancing, both the normal & mobile web browsing expericence will merge pretty soon.
Himanshu, you underline that there will likely be a lot more searches through mobile, but you don't illustrate what effect, if any, that will actually have on SEO. If the search volume increases, it doesn't directly impact how you optimise.
Bear in mind, as well, that those people likely to be using mobile web to search are going to be the tech-savvy who already use the internet. Its not necessarily new searchers, so I doubt search volume will increase in-line with the figures quoted in that research.
Sure...mobile optimisation may help CTR, but that's not SEO per se. I think Rand's prediction is quite bold - I wouldn't be surprised if location/geo features more deeply in mobile and that does change things - but I genuinely think it could go either way.
@WebProTechnologies
Sorry but i totally disagree. I would like you to check out these posts:
https://www.seomoz.org/blog/mobile-serps-usability
https://www.seomoz.org/blog/mobile-search-engine-transcoding
https://googlewebmastercentral.blogspot.com/2009/11/help-google-index-your-mobile-site.html
https://googlewebmastercentral.blogspot.com/2009/11/running-desktop-and-mobile-versions-of.html
Mobile seo is not the same as regular seo.
@nikunjt
How it will have neglible effect on seo when more and more people access the web through mobile. Will they stop searching for products/services?How mobile and web browsing experince will merge when mobile and desktop sites are designed differently?
@Ian Williams
"Himanshu, you underline that there will likely be a lot more searches through mobile, but you don't illustrate what effect, if any, that will actually have on SEO. If the search volume increases, it doesn't directly impact how you optimise."
What are we analyst for? I can show you through a simple custom report and couple of advanced segments about how mobile search is impacting your conversions, revenue, traffic and the bottomline. Have you ever analyzed how much business you loose because prospects can't browse your website through mobile devices?
I think every serious business should run one mobile version of its site. With mobile sites you are just increasing your reach and probability of getting more traffic, sales and leads.
Referred to "Mobile Version", wouldn't you think it will be more probable to think to an evolution of the existing CMS for an optimized vision on Mobile, meaning with that CMS that automatically recognize the device and therefore optimize the output of the website? It is something already happening, no?
didn't get your question buddy.
True, although its not an issue with the business I work with.
Maybe in time it will be - that's part of the fun of making predictions ;)
Have a good holiday!
(Edit: to put it into context, we don't provide e-commerce and had 1% of last month's visits through mobile. The business wouldn't justify outlay on a mobile-specific site now.)
@seo-himanshu
I again differ on this point that mobile SEO is anything different or is going to be different . Maybe there is a gap now but as the web goes more and more mobile the gap will go on reducing.
As the focus is on the convergence of technologies which is going to ease things rather than make them more complicated.
If you see the growing trend in the mobile industry is backed and accompanied by the growth in the Web Apps. industry also.
If you read Rand's presentation on https://www.slideshare.net/randfish/10-seo-learnings-in-2010 (slide 11) that also says mobile SEO very similar to web SEO.
Well only time will tell more about this or maybe Rand can throw some more light on this.
There are some more statistics and data about web Apps and the Mobile Industry on https://goo.gl/aGGqI
I guess this depends on what Rand means by 'Effect on Search/SEO', and I think he means the effect on rankings not on volume.
The number of people accessing the mobile Internet is growing fast and is expected to overtake the PC as the most popular way to get on the Web within five years. -Source: International Telecommunication Union, International Data Corporation (IDC)
But what are they doing? This is a very broad statement (I realise it's not yours). If the majority of those people are checking their bank accounts, sending a tweet or checking email/facebook then it seems to me that Rand is exactly right and theeffect on SEO will be negligible.
Same goes for these two as well:
Many mobile Web users are mobile-only, i.e. they do not, or very rarely also use a desktop, laptop or tablet to access the Web
- Source On Device Research (Mobile Survey and Research Panels)
By 2011, over 85 percent of new handsets will be able to access the mobile Web. - Source Gartner (Global research organization)
I'm not saying that you're wrong. I'm merely saying that accessing the mobile web (however you define it) and searching using a mobile device are not the same thing.
This is what peope are doing on mobile devices: comScore MobiLens (July 2010). Check the retail/travel section.
Shopping on the mobile Web, i.e. m-commerce will reach US$119 billion in 2015 predicts ABI Research (February 2010), that’s about 8 percent of the total e-commerce market: Today, Japan is king of m-commerce, where mobile Web shopping exceeded US$10 billion in 2009, making the US$1.2 billion bought in the US by mobile look trifling.
And this trend will change when more and more websites are mobile friendly. The point here is that don't just sit and wait for a major announcement to happen while your competitors monetize the first movers advantage through mobile search.
That's good information, and ignoring the headline figures there's some telling statistics.
In the US:
34% of people used a browser. The vast majority therefore didn't.
5.5% Accessed online retail. That's worth repeating if correct. 95% of people with the capacity to access a mobile retail site... didn't.
Getting back to Rand's prediction "#5: Mobile Will Have a Negligible Effect on Search/SEO" I would say that he's right. As a marketer, or business owner (especially in retail if you believe those numbers) you literally have no choice but to go after the bigger piece of the pie. If I have the option of spending money going after that 5%, or using the same funds to increase my current conversion rate, or hire new sales staff, or invest further in the things that make me the most money. My competitor may well become the first mover and dominate that space, but at what cost?
Great post!