The beginning of the year marks the traditional week for bloggers to prognosticate about the 12 months ahead, and, over the last decade I've created a tradition of joining in this festive custom to predict the big trends in SEO and web marketing. However, I divine the future by a strict code: I'm only allowed to make predictions IF my predictions from last year were at least moderately accurate (otherwise, why should you listen to me?). So, before I bring my crystal-ball-gazing, let's have a look at how I did for 2014.
Yes, we'll get to that, but not until you prove you're a real Wizard, mustache-man.
You can find my post from January 5th of last year here, but I won't force you to read through it. Here's how I do grading:
- Spot On (+2) - when a prediction hits the nail on the head and the primary criteria are fulfilled
- Partially Accurate (+1) - predictions that are in the area, but are somewhat different than reality
- Not Completely Wrong (-1) - those that landed near the truth, but couldn't be called "correct" in any real sense
- Off the Mark (-2) - guesses which didn't come close
If the score is positive, prepare for more predictions, and if it's negative, I'm clearly losing the pulse of the industry. Let's tally up the numbers.
In 2014, I made 6 predictions:
#1: Twitter will go Facebook's route and create insights-style pages for at least some non-advertising accounts
Grade: +2
Twitter rolled out Twitter analytics for all users this year ( starting in July for some accounts, and then in August for everyone), and while it's not nearly as full-featured as Facebook's "Insights" pages, it's definitely in line with the spirit of this prediction.
#2: We will see Google test search results with no external, organic listings
Grade: -2
I'm very happy to be wrong about this one. To my knowledge, Google has yet to go this direction and completely eliminate external-pointing links on search results pages. Let's hope they never do.
That said, there are plenty of SERPs where Google is taking more and more of the traffic away from everyone but themselves, e.g.:
I think many SERPs that have basic, obvious functions like " timer" are going to be less and less valuable as traffic sources over time.
#3: Google will publicly acknowledge algorithmic updates targeting both guest posting and embeddable infographics/badges as manipulative linking practices
Grade: -1
Google most certainly did release an update (possibly several) targeted at guest posts, but they didn't publicly talk about something specifically algorithmic targeting emebedded content/badges. It's very possible this was included in the rolling Penguin updates, but the prediction said "publicly acknowledge" so I'm giving myself a -1.
#4: One of these 5 marketing automation companies will be purchased in the 9-10 figure $ range: Hubspot, Marketo, Act-On, Silverpop, or Sailthru
Grade: +2
Silverpop was purchased by IBM in April of 2014. While a price wasn't revealed, the "sources" quoted by the media estimated the deal in the ~$270mm range. I'm actually surprised there wasn't another sale, but this one was spot-on, so it gets the full +2.
#5: Resumes listing "content marketing" will grow faster than either SEO or "social media marketing"
Grade: +1
As a percentage, this certainly appears to be the case. Here's some stats:
- US profiles with "content marketing"
- June 2013: 30,145
- January 2015: 68,580
- Growth: 227.5%
- US profiles with "SEO"
- June 2013: 364,119
- January 2015: 596,050
- Growth: 163.7%
- US profiles with "social media marketing"
- June 2013: 938,951
- January 2015: 1,990,677
- Growth: 212%
Granted, content marketing appears on far fewer profiles than SEO or social media marketing, but it has seen greater growth. I'm only giving myself a +1 rather than a +2 on this because, while the prediction was mathematically correct, the numbers of SEO and social still dwarf content marketing as a term. In fact, in LinkedIn's annual year-end report of which skills got people hired the most, SEO was #5! Clearly, the term and the skillset continue to endure and be in high demand.
#6: There will be more traffic sent by Pinterest than Twitter in Q4 2014 (in the US)
Grade: +1
This is probably accurate, since Pinterest appears to have grown faster in 2014 than Twitter by a good amount AND this was already true in most of 2014 according to SharedCount (though I'm not totally sold on the methodology of coverage for their numbers). However, we won't know the truth for a few months to come, so I'd be presumptuous in giving a full +2. I am a bit surprised that Pinterest continues to grow at such a rapid pace -- certainly a very impressive feat for an established social network.
With Twitter's expected moves into embedded video, it's my guess that we'll continue to see a lot more Twitter engagement and activity on Twitter itself, and referring traffic outward won't be as considerable a focus. Pinterest seems to be one of the only social networks that continues that push (as Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube all seem to be pursuing a "keep them here" strategy).
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Final Score: +3
That positive number means I've passed my bar and can make another set of predictions for 2015. I'm going to be a little more aggressive this year, even though it risks ruining my sterling record, simply because I think it's more exciting :-)
Thus, here are my 10 predictions for what the marketing world will bring us in 2015:
#1: We'll see the first major not-for-profit University in the US offer a degree in Internet Marketing, including classes on SEO.
There are already some private, for-profit offerings from places like Fullsail and Univ. of Phoenix, but I don't know that these pedigrees carry much weight. Seeing a Stanford, a Wharton, or a University of Washington offer undergraduate or MBA programs in our field would be a boon to those seeking options and an equal boon to the universities.
The biggest reason I think we're ripe for this in 2015 is the LinkedIn top 25 job skills data showing the immense value of SEO (#5) and digital/online marketing (#16) in a profile when seeking a new job. That should (hopefully) be a direct barometer for what colleges seek to include in their repertoire.
#2: Google will continue the trend of providing instant answers in search results with more interactive tools.
Google has been doing instant answers for a long time, but in addition to queries with immediate and direct responses, they've also undercut a number of online tool vendors by building their own versions directly into the SERPs, like they do currently for queries like " timer" and "calculator."
I predict in 2015, we'll see more partnerships like what's provided with OpenTable and the ability to book reservations directly from the SERPs, possibly with companies like Uber, Flixster (they really need to get back to a better instant answer for movies+city), Zillow, or others that have unique data that could be surfaced directly.
#3: 2015 will be the year Facebook begins including some form of web content (not on Facebook's site) in their search functionality.
Facebook severed their search relationship with Bing in 2014, and I'm going to make a very risky prediction that in 2015, we'll see Facebook's new search emerge and use some form of non-Facebook web data. Whether they'll actually build their own crawler or merely license certain data from outside their properties is another matter, but I think Facebook's shown an interest in getting more sophisticated with their ad offerings, and any form of search data/history about their users would provide a powerful addition to what they can do today.
#4: Google's indexation of Twitter will grow dramatically, and a significantly higher percentage of tweets, hashtags, and profiles will be indexed by the year's end.
Twitter has been putting more muscle behind their indexation and SEO efforts, and I've seen more and more Twitter URLs creeping into the search results over the last 6 months. I think that trend continues, and in 2015, we see Twitter.com enter the top 5-6 "big domains" in Mozcast.
#5: The EU will take additional regulatory action against Google that will create new, substantive changes to the search results for European searchers.
In 2014, we saw the EU enforce the "right to be forgotten" and settle some antitrust issues that require Google to edit what it displays in the SERPs. I don't think the EU is done with Google. As the press has noted, there are plenty of calls in the European Parliament to break up the company, and while I think the EU will stop short of that measure, I believe we'll see additional regulatory action that affects search results.
On a personal opinion note, I would add that while I'm not thrilled with how the EU has gone about their regulation of Google, I am impressed by their ability to do so. In the US, with Google becoming the second largest lobbying spender in the country and a masterful influencer of politicians, I think it's extremely unlikely that they suffer any antitrust or regulatory action in their home country -- not because they haven't engaged in monopolistic behavior, but because they were smart enough to spend money to manipulate elected officials before that happened (unlike Microsoft, who, in the 1990's, assumed they wouldn't become a target).
Thus, if there is to be any hedge to Google's power in search, it will probably come from the EU and the EU alone. There's no competitor with the teeth or market share to have an impact (at least outside of China, Russia, and South Korea), and no other government is likely to take them on.
#6: Mobile search, mobile devices, SSL/HTTPS referrals, and apps will combine to make traffic source data increasingly hard to come by.
I'll estimate that by year's end, many major publishers will see 40%+ of their traffic coming from "direct" even though most of that is search and social referrers that fail to pass the proper referral string. Hopefully, we'll be able to verify that through folks like Define Media Group, whose data sharing this year has made them one of the best allies marketers have in understanding the landscape of web traffic patterns.
BTW - I'd already estimate that 30-50% of all "direct" traffic is, in fact, search or social traffic that hasn't been properly attributed. This is a huge challenge for web marketers -- maybe one of the greatest challenges we face, because saying "I brought in a lot more traffic, I just can't prove it or measure it," isn't going to get you nearly the buy-in, raises, or respect that your paid-traffic compatriots can earn by having every last visit they drive perfectly attributed.
#7: The content advertising/recommendation platforms will continue to consolidate, and either Taboola or Outbrain will be acquired or do some heavy acquiring themselves.
We just witnessed the surprising shutdown of nRelate, which I suspect had something to do with IAC politics more than just performance and potential for the company. But given that less than 2% of the web's largest sites use content recommendation/promotion services and yet both Outbrain and Taboola are expected to have pulled in north of $200m in 2014, this is a massive area for future growth.
Yahoo!, Facebook, and Google are all potential acquirers here, and I could even see AOL (who already own Gravity) or Buzzfeed making a play. Likewise, there's a slew of smaller/other players that Taboola or Outbrain themselves could acquire: Zemanta, Adblade, Zegnet, Nativo, Disqus, Gravity, etc. It's a marketplace as ripe for acquisition as it is for growth.
#8: Promoted pins will make Pinterest an emerging juggernaut in the social media and social advertising world, particularly for e-commerce.
I'd estimate we'll see figures north of $50m spent on promoted pins in 2015. This is coming after Pinterest only just opened their ad platform beyond a beta group this January. But, thanks to high engagement, lots of traffic, and a consumer base that B2C marketers absolutely love and often struggle to reach, I think Pinterest is going to have a big ad opportunity on their hands.
Note the promoted pin from Mad Hippie on the right
(apologies for very unappetizing recipes featured around it)
#9: Foursquare (and/or Swarm) will be bought, merge with someone, or shut down in 2015 (probably one of the first two).
I used to love Foursquare. I used the service multiple times every day, tracked where I went with it, ran into friends in foreign cities thanks to its notifications, and even used it to see where to go sometimes (in Brazil, for example, I found Foursquare's business location data far superior to Google Maps'). Then came the split from Swarm. Most of my friends who were using Foursquare stopped, and the few who continued did so less frequently. Swarm itself tried to compete with Yelp, but it looks like neither is doing well in the app rankings these days.
I feel a lot of empathy for Dennis and the Foursquare team. I can totally understand the appeal, from a development and product perspective, of splitting up the two apps to let each concentrate on what it's best at, and not dilute a single product with multiple primary use cases. Heck, we're trying to learn that lesson at Moz and refocus our products back on SEO, so I'm hardly one to criticize. That said, I think there's trouble brewing for the company and probably some pressure to sell while their location and check-in data, which is still hugely valuable, is robust enough and unique enough to command a high price.
#10: Amazon will not take considerable search share from Google, nor will mobile search harm Google's ad revenue substantively.
The "Google's-in-trouble" pundits are mostly talking about two trends that could hurt Google's revenue in the year ahead. First, mobile searchers being less valuable to Google because they don't click on ads as often and advertisers won't pay as much for them. And, second, Amazon becoming the destination for direct, commercial queries ahead of Google.
In 2015, I don't see either of these taking a toll on Google. I believe most of Amazon's impact as a direct navigation destination for e-commerce shoppers has already taken place and while Google would love to get those searchers back, that's already a lost battle (to the extent it was lost). I also don't think mobile is a big concern for Google -- in fact, I think they're pivoting it into an opportunity, and taking advantage of their ability to connect mobile to desktop through Google+/Android/Chrome. Desktop search may have flatter growth, and it may even decline 5-10% before reaching a state of equilibrium, but mobile is growing at such a huge clip that Google has plenty of time and even plentier eyeballs and clicks to figure out how to drive more revenue per searcher.
(Ahem.) I think you forgot to provide photographer credit for that AWESOME picture at the start of the post. Just saying. :)
Hi honey! Great to see you on the blog. And yes, thank you for taking a picture of me at home with a light we bought from IKEA last night. You're a master photographer.
We cool? Or do you need a backlink, too? Any particular anchor text?
How about "serendipitous travel blog" to further reinforce that auto-complete!
Great list of predictions, Rand! It's always fun to read them at the beginning of each year.
Regarding #6
As it get's harder for marketers' to prove they're "worth" (ie, unable to provide accurate data from web analytics), is it becoming more difficult for agencies to sell in their services?
Granted, the demand for SEO, content marketing, etc is ever growing,, but I imagine there's a shift in outsourcing internet marketing to instead building teams in-house.
Wouldn't that be nice...
I've been trying to get my company to fire the outsourced, overseas contractors for going on 12 months now.
Keep fighting the good fight!
We're seeing that here too. As the cost of SEO / digital marketing outsourcing to agencies rises, companies are more inclined to just hire someone internally who has the skills and time to focus all energy on a single brand
Very interesting as always, here's my two-penneth worth on a few of the predictions:
2 - Google will continue the trend of providing instant answers in search results with more interactive tools.
I think it will go even further than this, I don't think it will just be an increase in tools, but an increase in ways you can start financial transactions directly from a Google search. I can only see something like Google Flights getting bigger, which is likely to hit the flight comparison websites hard. I think there is also scope for them to move into "foreign exchange" (an area I know very well, so you can not only just look up the exchange rate from $ to £ to Euro etc, but also the ability to start a transaction online. So there will be an increase in paid partnership opportunities for companies there, to the detriment of comparison websites organically.
5 - The EU will take additional regulatory action against Google that will create new, substantive changes to the search results for European searchers.
The EU is a very complicated organisation, and you're more likely to see individual EU countries make changes (e.g. Spain on Google News & Germany has a history of Google privacy concerns). The trouble is with the EU just because they pass a "law", doesn't necessarily mean each member state is going to adopt the ruling in full and it is often open to an individual country's interpretation. Sorry to get so political! Being in the UK, I'm less concerned about this in general. (Also, there's a possible referendum in 2015/16 whether we even want to remain as a part of the EU)
6 - Mobile search, mobile devices, SSL/HTTPS referrals, and apps will combine to make traffic source data increasingly hard to come by.
I think this will be true for free users. However, I think there will be a bigger push towards Google Analytics Premium, and I think this product will start to provide more information than the free version. It's a big money spinner and although it is, in my opinion, more crude than Adobe Analytics (SiteCatalyst) it is likely to grow and improve this year significantly, as it's a huge potential revenue stream for Google. Sampled data on the free account just isn't good enough if you have a medium-large sized (in terms of traffic) website.
Interesting take on GA premium. I tend to agree with your thoughts on it becoming a better platform and larger source of revenue for Google. The disappointing thing about this would be smaller companies/brands that cannot afford to bankroll the pricetag for premium thereby not getting accurate data.
Re: Google Analytics Premium. I've been saying for 2 years that Google has been slowly limiting our access to acquisition data so that at some point in time, what they used to give for free, will now cost you. Whether it's a paid platform (Monthly, no doubt) or volume pricing I'm not sure, but that's what I believe. (not provided) will become (provided for a fee).
Great Predictions Rand,
Regarding SEO being taught as a degree, I think it will happen but not this year. The academic world has a long way to go still. More here https://moz.com/blog/seo-teaching-should-seo-be-ta...
Yes - great points in that post.
(FYI - I edited your link to make it a live one)
I'm agree with you Carla, and as I wrote in your post, It could be possible with an association between Google and the Universities, for example.
Great post Rand!!
It will be great to see a post on courses or initiatives taken place in regards to better formal training in SEO. I would like to see a course focused on more technical topics and tools.
If the SEO qualification and training goes down the same route Chartered Accounts use it would work really well.
Classroom teaching, exams, on job training before qualifications is given plus updates.
And the other route in is to be trained with a company who has been approved by the search engines, qualifying via experience.
Personally I think exams are over rated and hold people back (I do have a professional qualification). Get your hands dirty, test your own theories and prove you can increase peoples revenues.
I think it would be fantastic for SEO to be taught in schools. There is so much technical SEO to learn, and sometimes learning the hard way (via experience) takes a ton of time.
I also think there is a lot to great SEO is that simply personality based. It takes a lot of creativity and je ne sais quoi to be a good SEO. It is like you have to be a sales person, marketing coordinator, website design guru and half a tech person to do it correctly. Colleges can get the technical part out there, but they can't teach personality or character, unfortunately.
I can say personally that I blew up a website or two with crappy HTML coding because I hadn't learned the right way to do it yet. Some parts of technical SEO should just be flat out taught and not experimented with. I think if more SEOs learned these fundamental things upfront, like 301 redirects and proper HTML coding, it would eventually transform the webmaster and the SEO into one conglomerate, dominating force. I see a lot of people in the Q&A who can't access their own HTAccess file, or change simple coding in their css and it makes me wish they could learn how to do it on their own instead of relying heavily on a web designer. There have been rumors for a couple of years about more SEO being done in house, and I think the more education provided, the more this will become the norm.
It will also create a "standard" for SEOs. I don't know about anyone else, but it makes me feel good when my IT guy has a college degree in Technology, or my Dr has a PHD in Medical Practice. I think more companies could justify some of the outrageous expenses of SEO if there were something as small as a piece of paper to back it up.I think having an actual online marketing curriculum that encompasses AdWords, Analytics, SEO, Social Marketing, Budgeting and uniform reporting based on several different sets of KPIs would make all of our lives easier.
Heck, we're trying to learn that lesson at Moz and refocus our products back on SEO, so I'm hardly one to criticize.
I'd wager that a lot of Mozzers would love some more information on this!
I'll ask Sarah Bird if she'd be willing to write more about that in her year-end metrics roundup.
Yes. A lot of interesting predictions, but this seems to be more than that. I'll be interested to see that roundup.
I mostly agree with your predictions, Rand, but the ones about Pinterest.
At least in Italy or Spain I cannot see Pinterest having the success you are previewing.
Moreover, data shared in a very recent Italian search conference show how Pinterest is plummeting in Italy, after a first initial boost in 2013.
One prediction I don't see, and that IMHO has more possibility to become true, is the ever growing importance of private messagging systems. Whatsapp, Facebook Messanger, Line (which has a very ambitious plan also for growing more in the USA market) are going to play a very important role in the digital marketing mix, and we will see more business companies adding them as "one to one" and "one to fews" marketing channels.
If we want to talk about visual social media channels, then, we should focus more on Instagram than, again, Pinterest.
I agree Instagram is booming, too. I think Pinterest has just captured a very desirable portion of the American consumer market, and it drives massive amounts of traffic (as the Sharecount numbers show). Hence, we're going to see lots of spending there, even if Pinterest doesn't make huge inroads overseas.
I know a couple of bloggers who are seeing 50,000+ visitors a month for years most of it from a single pin that went viral. Pinterest is very big with mom blogs and unlike other social networks, the busiest time is said to be Saturday morning.
As you know, Rand, we published a major study last July that showed that indexation of Twitter by Google (as of early 2014) was relatively low, and highly influenced by follower count.
We're working now on an update to that study, so it will be interesting to see if we detect a major increase in the number of tweets indexed, as you predict. I personally suspect you are right, and our study update may give you an early +2 for 2015. We're also going to start parsing the study by Followerwonk's Social Authority levels, rather than just raw follower counts.
Yes! I'm very much hoping that your work shows some interesting results. I think we can also observe how much of Google's top 10 is taken up by Twitter as a proxy for this, too.
Hello Rand! Great conception and insight as always!
First let me say that these are some big predictions and I hope they come through for you as last years - I will be here to review them of course. I am similarly interested to see whether degrees become mainstream (or at least represented) in non-profit universities. I think education is a huge step to repairing public faith in the SEO industry and would also help misguided individuals work in a more structured framework which would benefit everyone in the long run.
With reference to both the Twitter and EU predictions - do you think this intersection of cross-purpose entities might create that conflict you mentioned? Indexing - and therefore creating greater accessibility - might just be the spark that ignites those "right to be forgotten" folks. Who knows?
Very exciting to be starting a new year and as always I look forward to what else you have to say.
Thanks for the entertaining read!
What really impresses me most is the willingness to look back at last year and ensure/prove you know what you are talking about.
In the case of Google vs. Amazon - when is Google going to open their own retail storefront (not just Google products)?
I'd be pretty surprised if Google got into physical retail, although I suppose it's possible.
#1: We'll see the first major not-for-profit University in the US offer a degree in Internet Marketing, including classes on SEO
We launched our postgraduate Masters degree in Digital Marketing at RGU Aberdeen (Scotland) in September last year (it's one of the first practice-based ones). The University is not-for-profit and quite major one (for the UK anyway). Interesting fact was that we had someone from the US who was really keen on the programme and wanted to apply, for 2 reasons:
To me that's very short sighted and doesn't make any sense. Of our first student intake whom I'm currently teaching (in SEO, amongst other things :) ), only ONE has an undergraduate degree in Marketing. Yet the ability and quality of some of them is exceptionally high!
Another quick one to point out is that it's not that easy or quick to get new courses and new approaches approved in Higher Education (not-for-profit). Like with everything in the public sector, there tend to be layers of bureaucracy including processes, meetings galore, multiple stakeholders with different agendas etc. etc. before anything can actually be done and signed off.
That's why it's not surprising that private education providers are already offering these courses - they are able to quickly react to market demand such as this digital skills gap. The not-for-profit ones will undoubtedly be aware of this and probably have been working behind the scenes for the last 3 years to get a degree off the ground!
Not good for us mind you - I want all those US students on our course :D
Nice post.
Regarding search engine / SEO education in universities, I agree the overall number is small, but there are certainly a lot more than the two mentioned above. I have a degree in eCommerce from the University of Toledo and we had some great courses on search engines (among many other) as a part of our overall education.
Not called "internet marketing", but this major (eCommerce) combined with the Marketing major has basically accomplished the same thing for me, if not better.
Very cool and good to know. Thanks!
San Francisco State University has had an eCommerce MBA and MSBA program since 2000 or earlier. When I attended it was equal parts coding (I did the MS, or Masters of computer Science program) and marketing, with a dash of accounting. I haven't looked at the program in a decade, but I'd expect that there are opportunities to specialize within the program and focus on internet marketing now.
I am not Dana, in fact I just realized that I'm accidentally logged in under Dana's account.
Wow... "I'd already estimate that 30-50% of all "direct" traffic is, in fact, search or social traffic that hasn't been properly attributed." This makes me shudder, then facepalm, then want to give up altogether!!" Explains a lot... great post!
My personal prediction (which is one that I also hope will happen): Google Penguin gets "smarter" so that almost all links that are not at least 99% earned naturally are either penalized or not taken into account at all in the algorithm.
I hope not because this mean lot of work for linkbuilders, link profile cleaners and outreach specialists.
Well, I hope I don't sound rude when I say this, but then they should not have been building bad links in the first place. :)
Been a lurker forever and figured I'd finally join the party.
Rand, I always love your content, and white board Friday videos, but some of these feel really safe! Be bold!
Ha! Well, I think I took some risks with the predictions and I do still want to be able to predict things again in 2016 :-) Great to have you on the blog at last!
A great list Rand, I would be most interested to see how #5 pans out, given troubles Spain's "Google tax" encountered, I think there'll be some more struggles to be had in trying to breakup Google's massive presence in Europe in 2015.
If I had to make one (tentative) prediction it's that we'll see some more moves from Apple in the "search" sphere - I suspect these will be small, but I'd be surprised if there was nothing at all in 2015.
Apple's been very reticient to get into software, but they do have some infrastructure around app search already, so maybe it will be in that direction.
FYI, I am teaching SEO in Sofia University in Bulgaria since 2011 as a part of an MBA program, and starting Social media classes this term. Sofia University is the most popular and prestigeous university in the country so it fits your requirements. I am very much surprised nothing has been done in the US so far.
Hi Rand,
great premonitions again. Always like reading them. About #5 THE EU. It's something I take an interest in since I live in the Netherlands. I've noticed all the fuzz about Google in the EU and the regulations for a company that basicly lifts the entire EU up. In Delfzijl (the Netherlands) we'll be getting a Google datacenter with some 1400 jobs (I think it was that much).
I also read here someone stating the UK might actually get out of the EU. In the Netherlands there are also some politicians for this point of view. Then again. I don't worry all that much about the regulation. As mentioned here earlier, when the EU makes some new regulations not all the countries obey these regulations and since Google will start a new datacenter in The Netherlands providing lots of jobs and income for the country I would guess that The Netherlands will not obey the EU in every regulation here. At least I hope. Still I'm very curious at how this may develop. If you hear something about this, please keep us posted. I know I will do the same if I hear anything that may or may not prove your premonition #5.
Regards
Jarno
Thanks for putting up this post. I totally loved it and keep my fingers crossed hoping whatever you said will come true :)
Hello Rand,
Never the less ,you efforts are very marvelous , wonderful. And I think “Content marketing vs. SEO” battle opportunists are so eager to pit the two against each other. But expert online marketing professionals will recognize that both content marketing and SEO are star players in an enterprise-focused marketing strategy.
Definitely a better read than a lot of other "predictions" I've read, and I agree that it's nice that you take a look back at how you did last year. It's nice to see a little accountability leak into the predictions. As an avid Pinterest user, it'll be interesting to see how Prediction #8 pans out!
Wonderful post Rand, I have a feeling your going to have to give yourself a lot of points next year, seems like your predictions are already in an upward movement.
"#1: We'll see the first major not-for-profit University in the US offer a degree in Internet Marketing, including classes on SEO"
- nonprofit schools adapting digital marketing into their curriculum could be great for large corps but can also hurt the small businesses / and start ups. The reason I say this is because a lot of the larger corps I have worked w/ (including a couple dot com'ers) thrive on hiring individuals with a college degree that is regionally accredited (99% non profit) to fill digital marketing positions.... Example a degree in web design is hired for the SEO position. Sure they can make the site look fantastic, but what I have seen, is the SEO is very poor.
Examples like this is the reason why passionate digital marketers w/ out a degree seem to make a huge difference, yet it's extremely hard for them to find a job w/ a large corp. (some do)
Don't get me wrong I find knowledge to be bliss, and I have and continue to educate myself at a college, or just by research.
I am a little excited to see how this will change our economic game in the coming years.
Thanks
Justin
P.S. The rest of the predictions are great as well, and good to get a jump start on, I just picked #1 because I believe the impact could be huge.
Thanks for the predictions Rand!
(I'll focus on #1) I hope that full-fledged Internet Marketing degrees can integrate themselves into universities across the country as soon as they are ready, but not before.
I was lucky enough to be able to take a few internet marketing courses as part of my Business Marketing degree (BYU-Idaho). I am not sure how the current universities accomplish enough course content to have a masters degree, but getting enough approved to plan out an impactful class or two seems to be as much as most higher education institutions can muster.
That being said, the courses that I took opened my eyes to my career path! So again, I hope that more Universities can come up with fully operational programs- both for your "+2" next year as well as the benefit and growth of Higher Education in general!
Thanks again!
Great list of predictions, Rand!
Very interesting post, we'll just have to wait and see how many you get right at the start of 2016!
now days search engine targeted SEO almost dead. People work on content marketing and social media marketing. Because cost less, conversion ratio better on content marketing and social media marketing.
Thank you Rand - Very Interesting :)
Great post. Any thoughts on Google+? Do you think it will continue to be a rich source for follow links?
cool stuff for new people
Obviuosly sounds like a predictive approach as all optimizers need to foresee it nowadays. As it looks like the world is becoming a part and parcel of mobile technology nowadays, as most of the people these days are using mobile devices and large numbers of users are searching on Google’s using mobile. Obviously websites are usually created keeping mobile view as the matter of concern as mobile indexing impact the site's visits to a larger extent as said so in https://goo.gl/5dRNRj
2015 has just begun and your expectations are already justified! Good article.
#2
https://www.cnbc.com/id/102397123
Mortgage calculator added yesterday I think :)
Thanks Rand Fraskin for your all the time and dedication behind this post. However i dont think these things really matter and affect search engine rankings.
Interesting post for all marketers.
I think you might be spot on with Pinterest this year
University of Irvine does have several extension courses dedicated to SEO but no degree yet. https://unex.uci.edu/areas/it/seo/
Interesting article. I'm much curious if your predictions are going to happen in real. And by the way, I really like your grading system.
I know this is off topic, but living in the UK how refreshing it is to see someone in the USA write " they were smart enough to spend money to manipulate elected officials before that happened ". Most educated people know that there is no or very little democracy in the USA G.W. Bush advertised that fact quite well.
Nice post though, it will be interesting to see where we are this time next year.
My personal point of view is that on-line security will be an even bigger topic this year than it was last year. Not that technology will change, but as more and more on-line security breaches are spread within main stream media (TV, Radio etc) the way the public interact with on-line services will be effected.
Really good post rand and good prediction also...
Hi Moz, long time follower first time commenter. I reckon we're going to see Google+ pages appearing in higher in SERPs than company websites. And then we'll see the slow decline of the web industry because to be found in Google you won't need a website, you'll just need content.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that we already are seeing this trend.
Let's hope that in particular Google will develop as actively as abroad, because our website ESHN is now very well issued it.
[link removed]
Hey Rand,
Your predictions looks promising. And I believe that all might be true.
Regarding #1 - Here in India, already many IT institutes started teaching SEO courses but still it is not overall recognizable. Though, their teachings are somewhat related to only basic on-page & off-page factors which are directory submission, article submission etc. just to earn money.
Pinterest too is not so popular here unlike in US. Here, the growth of FB has tremendously taken over all other social sites.
I was thinking, you could predict something related to LINKS in SEO. Like, after Panda & Penguin, what do you think the next algorithm will impact the website?
Thanks.
Great bundle of Marketing predictions. What I feel is Pinterest will be the tough competition for other social sites when it comes to deliver direct traffic to websites.
Nice theming and theatre with the lamp and curled moustache! Do you have a "mo-vember"? In NZ, the guys all grow a variety of facial hair for charity during November. Don't hold back on trying the longer French curled mo'. I've been onto the local university about the lack of suitably qualified graduates and lack of SEO training in their BCom's. Slow wheels to turn...
Great job on getting last years predictions. Can't wait to see if you get these more aggressive predictions right :)
Great post Mr. Rand,
I enjoy your posts from many years and this one is also pretty interesting. My focus on #2: Google will continue the trend of providing instant answers in search results with more interactive tools. In my opinion It will be more interesting if Google can trigger page title according to user search query in organic results.
#5 The point where in you state that content marketing is showing brighter signs of growth as compared to SEO practice, just states that the world has started to appreciate quality content more than ever , and the sheer urge to write better , keeps the Digital Marketing scenario "content friendly ". With promising content , the creative minds are targeting the global market and getting out of their hidden den's , bringing out their perception in pen and paper , thereby sharing a word among those who listen , read and observe !
Your predictions are not only sensible , but are quite the more practically happening in the coming time . I believe this is really informative and will genuinely seek the interest of many a readers ! Thank you Rand.
Google Knowledge graph will expand with more and more features that's for sure. Let's see how much these predictions turn into reality.
At the beginning of year this article give me a direction .interesting predictions . it will help me to improve my next target .
Hi Rand,
Your prediction which would surely be on the spot with grade +2 next year would be number 1,2,3 & 8. Also, I think wearable devices and apps would take the major part of search. Vertical search would also grow. With elimination of freebase, the search results would be more detailed one and would show much co-relation. Pinterest would definitely be a an improved ad platform for e-commerce. Also, LinkedIn would emerge as another major social media platform.
I've waited a whole year for this! In regards to "no exteral organic links" Rand, this was my response to your predictions last year: https://www.silkstream.net/blog/2014/01/rand-fishki... :-P
Do I win the internet now?
As Michael pointed out above, technically, they have SERPs like that already (but I don't think I should get points because it existed prior to 2014).
Great post Rand,
For my own ten cents (pence, depending on where you are), I think the adoption of tools from LinkedIn e.g. Pulse, InMail & Sales Navigator will be increasingly used by B2B marketers. We started using these tools back in the Summer of 2014 to great effect and this year I'm already getting more and more organisations from around the globe contacting me with the same tools, like others I'll reject correspondence if its not relevant but their is a good level of marketing personalisation I like. Note, I'm not flying the flag here for LinkedIn by any stretch of the imagination as these tools do have their flaws e.g. Sales Navigator profile data does not match profile data you see in say their Business Premium service and you can't group/categorise leads easily but they do provide great access and connectivity for my target market.
David
I think that's a very safe bet. LinkedIn has phenomenal data, and those tools are going to be essential for B2B marketers.
I thought that #2 "We will see Google test search results with no external, organic listings" couldn't be possible and commented that last year and I glad that we didn't saw that and (like you) hope we will never see it.
I would say:
In Europe Amazon will become a harder opponent for google in transactional queries (if we search somtehing to buy, we often search at amazon, more often than with google not only in my case, mostly caused by bad google shopping experience and much more)
Hey Rand
Fantastic predictions! I am worried to here #9 about Foursquare's shut down.
It's good to here that content marking will be on boon again in 2015. You haven't mentioned about local marketing other-then yelp, might be it will be more fruitful for this year.
But i doubt on #8 that more traffic will converted from Pinterest then twitter. I was reading an article on Search Engine journal and it was shocking that 80% users at Pinterest are women, might be Pinterest will be grate for E-Commerce but not for all business.
I more thing I wanna mention, Your this appearance looking wonderful. wonderful snap! grate expressions!
It'd be great to see SEO get the formal recognition that it deserves. Here in the UK there are a selection of University courses available, however none of the institutions appear to have much clout.
The fact that kids are living a large part of their lives online before they even attend senior school, let alone university, means that they'll potentially be better equipped than many of us when we started out. So why shouldn't it be a study option?!
Great post, I'm especially curious to see what happens with #1 & #5.
And If I can add my personal prediction: Google Play will implement their own deep links into Google Play's search for apps. Something they do very wrong right now.
It's nice to see Moz's comeback to SEO.
As for predictions, I think SEO industry will continue to evolve and mature but it will not die. When you don't look just among the fortune 500 companies, SEO is still very much demanded from companies. If legit internet marketing companies focus only on "content marketing" and other "new age" stuff, only non-legit companies will be left to do the SEO and provide bad service for the small businesses.
Rand good one. just give some more detail about prediction number 10. This year small stores will get more benefit from Google Serb's??
I always enjoy these yearly predictions posts and then of course seeing what did or did not happen. I like your #1 prediction here. There is so much involved that it really requires more than just a class in a marketing program.
Great article rand i think the social media will growth more than content marketing in 2015
Bold guess! I think content is still small, so has a much larger growth ramp opportunity ahead of it, but we'll see.
+3 points on only 6 predictions for 2014... Nice job! Now you have 10 predictions and eager to see those results in January 2016. But, let's not get ahead of ourselves as we have another long year of ever changing online and offline marketing strategies to look forward to.
Your 2015 predictions don't seem to be that far fetched, which I like. They are more realistic and I think your score next year will prove this.
Your 6th prediction is something which has already started I believe. Many marketers are seeing trends in how to measure traffic sources within Google Analytics or some of the other big name analytics players. With the rise in those mobile device users and the latest in the SSL/Https sphere, proper attribution is, as you mention, going to be really tough to show your client(s) or superiors as it's not measurable to any specific effort... Unless you go the paid marketing route.
Maybe it's time to look elsewhere for analytics which can deliver that data, but so many of them are out of the budget for smaller web firms like ours. Then again, we don't have the clients which support the larger budgets either. It's a catch 22 for us small guys in showing results.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts as always! - Patrick
Rand- Thanks for the great post! I actually completed a master's degree in Internet Marketing from Full Sail University and it has helped a ton. I learned a lot from the degree, but experiential learning was key to taking this knowledge further.
Even though the "clout" factor isn't there for this private university, it has helped me land a couple of jobs since graduating. The response has always been, "Wow, you got a degree in internet marketing? Tell me more about it." I got both of those jobs after interviewing.
I agree with you that "better" schools will add this to their offerings, but there are definitely some good options currently.
Hi, I have a question about facebook.Why are they not starting a blog platform ?. Google have blogger and yahoo have tumblr. And if fb starts a blog platform it should be different from fbpage . I think it also make us more engagement in facebook. Is there any chance of new blog platform from fb????
Hi Rand, I remember reading your predictions last year and was looking forward to your predictions for 2015. I agree that Google are pushing organic listings further and further down the first page with paid search, maps and listings now all appearing above. Do you think it could be a prediction that we maybe soon see organic listings completely removed from the first page?
Rand! You missed one!
Google does serve a SERP that has no outbound links.
USPS package tracking!
I posted a screenshot above. Your final score should be +5 =D
That is a great point Michael! Although, to be fair, I believe they did that prior to 2014, so it shouldn't really count in my point totals. Thanks for the catch :-)
Interesting predictions, for what seems to be a very fast paced year ahead.
Regarding SEO being taught in universities, there will be a lot of controversy around the issue. If I may take the liberty to predict, then most authorities in SEO will have their hands full writing content around this topic. I also predict that some recognizable names will be approached with teaching gigs.
Also, I guess that Google's algorithmic changes will take less time (become more frequent), and are going to be announced less and less. The trend in how vague their explanation for what the updates are about is probably going to increase more too.
Great post, though I'm not sure this statement is correct: 'mobile searchers being less valuable to Google because they don't click on ads as often.' Many advertisers, or really pretty much all of the advertisers I've studied, actually see higher CTR on tablets and smartphones, as it can be harder to ignore ads on smaller device screens (this is especially true of phones, where you literally have to scroll past the ads to get to organic links). Though you are certainly correct that advertisers aren't willing to pay as much for the traffic.
Nice predictions Rand..!! I'm much curious about what will happen with #4. But one thing is worry some here if GA premium term would come true.
Awesome post, as per. Well done on getting your +3 for 2014!
Do you think digital marketers should be concerned by your prediction #1? Are we going to see all of the techy teenagers of today becoming digital marketing pros within the next 5/10 years, further saturating the market!?
The market has a lot more demand than supply from what I can see (and as the LinkedIn data suggests). I think every company with a web presence needs someone versed in SEO and web marketing at the least, and we don't have nearly enough of those to go around.
Definitely think universities are going to start catching up to digital communications and marketing. It's not quite there yet, but the University of Florida actually offers a handful of Master's degree programs specifically geared toward digital marketing and online communications. You might remember their Master's in Social Media program that got some buzz a few years ago, but they also have one in design and digital communication (https://www.jou.ufl.edu/wdoc/), though I doubt it hits all the SEO buttons yet. (Little plug for my alma mater here.)
Hmm..I am a little worried about #9. As I have verified a lot of local listings on Foursquare it would be a little devastating to see it shut down. I hope you are right that it is probably one of the first two options. But I am happy to see that SEO jobs are still in high demand and the possibility of more Internet Marketing degrees sounds fantastic.
Are these listings active, with reviews, tips, or engagement? If not they are just another citation out of the many that are out there. If you do have active engagement, and your clients love to use the listings. Its a bummer.
I too had great hopes for foursquare, and am really sad the way things are turning out for them. However, they are not another directory website. They have massive check-in data which will likely mean acquisition or partnership before shut down.
I am really interested in how it will go for Foursquare, and a big part of me hopes for a miracle that would bring them back in the game, as local SEO really needs players such as Foursquare!
Interesting predictions. Some, like Foursquare and university programs seem like no-brainers, but it's good to see Rand point them out. For #3, Facebook search is kind of wonky now, so I don’t hold much hope for improved offerings, except maybe for advertisers.
Regarding traffic source data in #6, it’ll be interesting to see how agencies adapt. Perhaps we'll see new tools or methods pop up for getting better data on this. I agree with others that Google’s continued limitations on source data, keywords, etc. point to a possible premium version down the line. Not crazy about them throttling back the info when they get all of our traffic data.
Interesting predictions! It will definitely help us to improve our traffic, site authority and overall business. Local SEO is going to rock in upcoming year.
Rand, I'd have to disagree somewhat on a non-profit university offering classes on SEO for a few reasons:
1. We cannot even agree among ourselves what "SEO" means -- and it seems that more and more is falling under the umbrella term of "SEO" in recent years.
2. There are already classes on "SEO" -- they're called web development and marketing. SEO is not really a thing unto itself -- it's a collection of best practices that include web development and marketing. (As I've often said myself here, what we call "SEO results" are just by-products of doing good web development and marketing.) If anything, web development courses will just add more things such as XML sitemaps and schema markup to the coursework.
Higher education is running on an obsolete framework fueled by capitalist ideals. Our whole education system is fitted for the Industrial Revolution, not the Tech Age. Plenty-o-sheep are blindly following without stopping to realize that they do not need these degrees, especially for digital areas of focus. Anyone who goes to Harvard to "become an SEO" is a gotdayumn idiot.. I'm starting a revolution revolving around the art of self-taught craft / trade mastery and I'm going to spark it off with a whole book and brand behind it.
Good List of Predictions. Any prediction for locals.
Nice & Insightful predictions for 2015! Let's see how your predictions turn out in coming year.
Nice post Rand
Whether or not I agree with these (most of them, I do) I find your predictions very exciting to think about in the coming year. Thanks Rand :)
Interesting post for all marketers